Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 3, 1966, Winnipeg, Manitoba Nigeria totters on Brink of anarchy tribal violence o _ that Nigeria s leaders May present four. Such a federa sense of ethnic kinship and by Colin Legum Lagos special owns nine months after Nigeria s first military coup nobody is any longer effectively ruling Africa s most populous country 55 million people in the world s ninth largest Sovereign territory. Its military regime is in disarray. Its army Lias lost Many of us experienced officers in the two military coups this year. Its 32-year old supreme military com Mander. Col. Yakuba gown an honorable Soldier who is proud of what Sandhurst taught him is in command but hardly in control of Nigeria s affairs. Government is entirely in the hands of civil servants themselves divided with virtually All the lop ibos gone Crom the Federal ser vice. Politics Are wisely restricted to efforts to devise a new constitutional Frame work to provide some kind of Unity or at least continuity of co operation. That Nigeria has not yet sprung apart is due to the Best of All possible political reasons solid economic interests which bind together the four regions. Nevertheless Nigeria s continued existence As a single coun try can no longer be counted upon. Already the ibo dominated Eastern he Gion is virtually in a state of secession. Unless it can be coaxed Back into the fold Nigeria will split up not merely into two but into Many parts. The dangers implicit in a breakup Are immense. There Are not enough forces to avoid Large scale violence should it Start again. Eco nomic disruption would be Swift. Black Africa s Al ready badly shaken morale would tie dealt its worst blow if its largest state collapsed. International involvement especially British and american be inescapable. These dangers Are fully understood by n i g e r i a s leaders. That is Why de spite the deep mistrust that infects the whole country they Are still determined to try to save Africa s wound great Northern train schedule change effective sunday october 30, with the end of Daylight saving time. Great Northern will make the of 11 o w i n g changes to passenger train schedules the northbound Winnipeg limited. Train no. 7, will arrive in Winnipeg at . The southbound Winnipeg limited train no. 8, will leave at . De giant. But the task of reconciliation after the Mili tary coups the massacres and mass exodus of the ibos from the North and the lesser but nevertheless Sav age reprisals against North Erners in the East is extremely difficult if not impossible. Everything now turns on the sincerity of the efforts to persuade the eight million ibos that there is still a place for them in a new and of Nigeria and on the ibo s ability to diminish the rest of the country s suspicions about their wish for domination. Now that no Region or group is any longer Domi Nant in the country the Hausa lost their hold in the january coup and the ibos theirs in the july coup the wish common to All is that never again will any group be Able to dominate the rest. The Central prob Lem now is to find a basis for agreement on a Constitution that will offer some sense of Security to the whole of Nigeria s complexly diverse Peoples the Strong As Well As the weak. Is any such solution pos sible and what Are the Likely consequences of failure taking first the gloomier View there appear to be two possibilities either an agreed and planned dissolution of the federation or an abrupt dissolution. In the second and likelier eventuality the it leadership would probably proclaim the Independence of the Eastern Region and demand that the three Oil companies operating in and around their territory British Shell by the american Gulf Oil and t h e French state cont round s a f r a p should pay All revenues from Oil rent and royalties to the government at Enugu instead of to the Federal government. Because the Oil companies have Large interests in the mid West Region As Well As in other parts of the country and t because their existing agreements Are with the Federal government they would find themselves in an impossible position. Oil revenues largely from Shell by now contribute s87 million annually to the federation s total Revenue of million. The Eastern Region gets just under a Quarter of the Oil revenues but it also gets a Large income from other Federal revenues. Predict resistance there Are other potential difficulties however. The producing Oil Wells and the pipeline lie mainly in the Delta area inhabited mainly by non ibos. For Many years there has existed a movement favouring a Separ ate state for these Peoples. How would they react to becoming part of a largely ibo Independent state ibo leadership is persuaded that they would face no serious problems from their Minori ties others predict bitter resistance no doubt strongly encouraged from the rest of Nigeria. Some leading political figures go so far As to advocate committing niger Ian troops to protect the right of the minorities to self determination col. Gown however has no intention of using troops in the Eastern Region. Nevertheless ibos fear a possible military move against themselves hence the efforts to strengthen their capacity for defence. But How can they convince the rest of the country that they Are interested Only in their own defence ibo leadership might Well to right that they will be Able to control any trouble they might have to face in the Delta but the possibility of trouble cannot be altogether ruled out. In any event the consequences of secession by the East would make it much harder for the rest of the country to stay together. T h e fragmentation of Nigeria into five six or even More states would precipitate Large scale movements of people and undoubtedly bring grave risks to the million or More ibos living in Lagos and elsewhere. Awareness of these problems is perhaps the main reason for thinking that Nigeria s leaders May succeed even at this late hour in finding some acceptable accommodation. This is not the first time they have come to the Brink of disaster Only to withdraw in time but they have never been quite so close to going Over the Edge before. Two plans Are being canvassed. The Only one the ibos arc willing to consider is a Constitution providing for a much looser federation than the old one with perhaps five or six regions established in place of the brass gather in Moscow by or. Saul n. Silverman Oakland California spec Ial the presence in Moscow recently of the top military figures of the East european countries indicates that the communist Summit meeting had less to do with sino soviet relations and More to do with Viet Nam than most Western analysts initially thought to be the Case. According to the soviet press the following military leaders accompanied their respective party leaders to the Moscow sent by the communist coun tries to North Vietnam. In the last s in months pressure has bean reported upon the East europeans to gear up production of armaments suitable for shipment to Hanoi. The threat implicitly that the soviet Union second world War. This was might not Only step up Aid to openly intended As a gesture Hanoi in the form of air defence reminding the vietnamese of an equipment but might also in i earlier occasion that might be crease her capability for some analogous to the sending of form of retaliatory action. The Volunteer question i volunteers in the present Situa has Tion. Forty in Silicia inns ;