Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - July 26, 1968, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free press Friday july 26, 1968 University enrolment v to double report by Shelley Chusid enrolment in the province s universities and colleges is expected to almost double in the next nine years according to a special report on education prepared for the Manitoba economic consultative Board. And University operating costs May increase by As much As 400 per cent by 1975, the report said. Annual increases of Between and million May be expected in operating costs the report says. Such increases Are As Large As total University expenditures were in Manitoba Only a few years according to the report enrolment in Manitoba universities h and colleges May be expected to Rise to in 1975 from i in 1966. Annual increases in full i time enrolment of about students should be expected for i the next few years gradually tapering off by 1975. The first of two major factors contributing to the expected increase in enrolment is that the number of Manitoban be tween 18 and 24 years old is expected to increase by about 30 per cent in the next nine years compared to an increase of Only 25 per cent in the past 15 years. The other is that close to 18 per cent of people in that age bracket Are expected to go to University compared to the present 12 per cent. Much depends on the Pace of institutional changes already taking place i education and training says the report. Establishment of regional Post secondary technical training schools for instance might strengthen the general tendency for Young people to attend Post secondary institutions and thus paradoxically contribute to in creased University attendance. Greater flexibility in University admittance requirements and the establishment of the universities of Brandon and Winnipeg elevated from College status Are expected to encourage higher attendance. The creation of Community colleges would perhaps have the most significant effect of any new developments on attendance says the report should several Community colleges be established together with other developments such As the increased professionalization of occupations such As nursing it is not beyond the Bounds of possibility that As High a University participation Over 20 per cent would be other matters determined directly or indirectly by govern ment would also affect University participation rates. The level of tuition fees or their Elimina Tion and whether student allow ances Are paid can have a critical part time enrolment in Mani Toba universities has been grow ing faster than full time enrol ment and shows Promise of continuing the report says. The danger is that in creases in part time enrolment May slow Down increases in full time enrolment although it is True that much of part time University enrolment is of people who would t be Able to Register for full time pm University costs per student Are much above those for students in elementary and secondary schools the report says. In 1965, for instance annual operating costs for each full time Manitoba University student was compared to for elementary and secondary school students. The costs Ere singly critical As University attendance soars says the re port. In the 14 years from 1951 to 1965, Manitoba University operating costs increased by nearly 10 times to million from million. The substantial increase was t due so much to increased enrolment which had Only tripled As to annual costs per Pupil which had risen to about from the report projects operating costs per student in Manitoba to about in 1975, an increase of More than 75 per cent from 1965. If there were full time enrol ment in 1975, Manitoba could spend million on University operating costs nearly four times that spent in 1965. Projecting University capital expenditures to serve the rela Lively Small population of around a million people in Manitoba is difficult because of the lumpiness of much University the report says. It is True that the general nature of the need is indicated by the expected increases in the student body but the timing of the capital expenditures to meet this need May Only roughly match the increase in enrol ment. Obviously expenditures for University facilities May Antici Pate requirements or May lag behind to the extent of allowing serious Over crowding of faculty and student population to take place. In addition Cost will vary greatly depending on the Type of facility interviews with authorities indicated a mini mum capital expenditure in Manitoba to 1975 of million which was then expanded to additional medical facilities associated with the establish ment of medicare. However since University authorities May Well set an upper limit on enrolment at the University of Manitoba which would be reached before 1975 and require the development of a new Campus and also since the two new universities in Manitoba Brandon and Winni Peg Are Likely to embark w significant capital expansion programs capital expenditure requirements in the projection seem Likely to exceed research aids analysis a new twist in economic an input output table has been added to the fifth annual report of the economic consultative Board. The result of a research project begun in 1965, a detailed interpretation of the table will be published by the Board at a labelled Effort by report the new table is a useful adjunct to a More accurate analysis of investment alternatives and to More precise understanding of the interrelationships Between the various parts of the Economy. Later Date As a special study research but in this table authors of is included with a a major the enrolments drop costs up private elementary and secondary schools Manitoba enrolment number of teachers and expenditures actual from 1951-52 to 1964-65 projected from 1965-66 to 1974-75 year 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 total enrol ment number 8.670 Pupil teacher ratio 22.0 22.6 23.5 25.2 24.5 24.5 24.5 25.1 24.5 24.1 22.1 21.4 20.0 19.5 19.5 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.1 number of teachers number 299 299 308 333 309 349 371 401 424 430 504 531 559 580 542 575 564 547 533 522 502 488 480 471 average teacher salary 886 950 total expenditure 710 751 829 922 819 Cost per Pupil 108.2 111.3 114.5 110.0 108.0 141.6 152.2 164.8 202.6 203.0 218.8 241.1 258.7 309.2 357.3 390.2 422.0 449.3 473.6 497.6 519.6 540.6 559.7 source from 1951-52 to 1964-65 Dominion Bureau of statistics education division. Shifting human resources to Federal govt. Urged question of University therefore becomes in the Complete take Over by the Federal government of All Basic costs for education health and welfare has been recommended by the Manitoba economic consultative Board. With an Eye on the increasing budgetary difficulties of Provin Al and municipal governments he proposes a Radical shift in existing Fede ral provincial fiscal responsibility by suggesting that Ottawa assume the major share up to a certain National Standard of the crushing burdens in these three Fields. In its fifth annual report the Board claims that consideration should be Given to a program that would see the Federal government underwrite All Basic costs in education health and welfare so that inequalities in these areas would be removed throughout the country. Labelling its plan a National human resources foundation the Board suggests the following guidelines for the takeover by Federal authorities that standards of service to be met with Federal Money be mutually agreed upon by the 11 senior governments. That All programs be administrated and directed by provincial governments. That All payments to the provinces be contingent upon provincial activities meeting the criteria set out for the found ton plan. That each province establish its own priorities up to the standards agreed upon. The consultative Board s re port supports its recommendation by noting that foundation programs have been set up with in provinces to wipe out inequalities in various sectors of the province. Clearly the present trend to wards application of the foundation principle As a Means of reducing the Revenue expenditure squeeze on municipal governments suggests that examination of its possible usefulness in a broader application is certainly states the re port. In effect what is being argued is that As National revenues continue to reflect in creased National productivity most of it accruing from growth in the More industrially advanced regions the increments will need to in order to maintain a desirable level of services in slower growth re although the Board advances its theory in an Effort to wipe out regional disparities in the three Fields it also contends that adoption of its proposal would help solve the budgetary problems of Junior governments. Estimating that Manitoba s costs for education health and welfare Are Likely to Rise by 40 per cent by 1975, the authors of the report warn that there will be Strong pressure to curtail expenditures in these areas even though the three Fields constitute our fundamental human re source development without maintaining a High level of services in these areas then provinces like Manitoba can never Hope to achieve the higher productivity employment that is essential for further develop ment. But if services Are to be met under the current tax situation then the Junior Levels of govern ment face almost insurmountable difficulties in raising the required funds. The Way off the Treadmill in the opinion of the Board May lie in transferring fiscal responsibility to the National taxpayer from the local taxpayer. While provincial governments May be reluctant to Transfer Fis Cal resources to the Central government the adoption of the foundation program would give provincial and municipal govern a More secure base to plan and manage their response the report says. The authors recognize that their proposal would be a rever Sal of recent trends in Federal provincial fiscal arrangements but they argue that the foundation principle is not a new de parture in the Field pointing to the Canada assistance act and the National health re sources fund fatal flaw reported continued and since the Board argues that spending in these three areas can be curtailed Only with severe losses in human develop ment it is in this Field that the most startling of the Board s recommendations advanced. In View then of the Widen ing Gap Between projected expenditures and revenues in the province of Manitoba and in View of the fact that All prov inces Are facing similar prospects it would appear to us that consideration should be Given to adoption of the foundation principle at the Federal level in respect to the three critical areas of health education and the report states. If the foundation approach were to be adopted for health education and welfare and if the Federal government were to As sure virtually All of the costs for the standards agreed upon a great Deal of budgetary uncertainty would be removed at the provincial education is the major con Cern of the five member Board s report for unlike Earl Ier reports More than half of the review is devoted to Chart filled documentation of Mani Toba s entire educational pro Gram. Carried out by two special consultants to the Board the educational review details current expenditures and enrolment in the province s school systems and projects requirements to 1975 when it is. Expected that costs will reach million a year. Two other special studies were also carried out by the Board during the past year in addition to pulse taking of the Economy. This includes the provision of a new Chart in the report an input output table that Analy Zes specific needs for various Manitoba industries in coming years. Another special study that should prove to be particularly revealing revolves around an analysis of the financing of the health Industry i Manitoba. The report Only mentions the fact that a study is underway As a result of the direction of the Manitoba development authority the Cabinet com Mittee to which the Board re ports annually. But it does not indicate when it May be. Completed and it hints that the results May remain confidential. _ despite the Board s optimism surrounding Manitoba s economic potential the report zeros in on areas that it believes to be mat ters of continuing concern in this connection it notes that wage Levels Here remain below those in the More prosperous provinces with the result that the wage pull of other areas on Mani Toba s labor Force is still worrisome. Therefore the need for a higher proportion of High productivity industries which would sup port higher wage Levels will continue to Challenge the develop ment initiatives in the the authors state. The report notes that the drive for higher productivity is intricately linked to the Economy of the country As a whole and the policies of other provinces and the Federal government. It Calls for More Federal provincial consultative machinery a better distribution of Federal funds a Relief from the increasingly onerous burdens on the real property taxpayer More emphasis on Long term regional planning and the development of More effective programs to integrate native Peoples into the Economy of the province. And it is because of the fact that High productivity requires a continuing High level of education and health services that the Board places so much importance on the realignment of Federal provincial fiscal arrangement. This year s annual report Fol lows the pattern set last year in that no detailed policy recommendations Are made by the Board unlike the first three editions of the consultative Board re View. When the Board was first set up it often pinpointed in specific terms failings in provincial government policy and this combined with the fact that the Board s report was normally released while the legislature was sitting made the annual report a controversial item. The facts and figures in the re port provided the opposition Par ties in the legislature with considerable political ammunition for attacks on the government and the timing of the release also came when the opposition had the Well publicized forum of the legislature. But last year the government changed the terms of reference of the body preventing it from dealing with specific areas unless asked to do so by the Manitoba development authority. And no longer is it a require me act that the annual report be submitted while the legislature is sitting. In a slump lond9n up the num Ber of licensed movie theatres in Britain fell to. In 1967 from the previous year. Admissions also from explanation. Most businessmen in the province Are quite familiar with their own direct suppliers and customers but Many of those same businessmen Are not so familiar with their own indirect connections with other Busi Nesses and industries. The Manitoba input output table shows quantitatively All the supplier groups and Cus Tomer groups for each major Industry within the province. It also shows directly the average proportion of wages to other inputs within an Industry the value of total provincial output of each Industry the value of imports which compete with provincial products. The table indicates indirectly As Well those industries which generate higher employment those which could attract complementary industries. According to the Board s report the table is valuable to those decision makers who Are interested m the economic a elopement of the province. The table illustrates Mani Toba s Economy in a systematic detailed manner showing the exports coming into the pro Vince where they Are going and their Dollar value. Police station May fall the Walls of the former North Winnipeg police station May soon come tumbling Down. Civic finance com Mittee was told thursday that the vacant building at the Corner Magnus Avenue and Charles Street does t lend itself for conversion to a Hostel or for civic purposes. City finance commissioner r. D. Mclean told the committee in a report that the Cost of converting the two Storey Brick Structure would be too High. Several individuals and groups had expressed interest in Pur chasing the land from the City provided the building is re moved or. Mclean said. Market value of the land if vacant was he said. Finance committee received the report As information. Vocational training costs million by 75 Matt plans can expect to be spending million a year on vocational institutions by 1975, according to an education study prepared for the Manitoba economic consultative Board. The estimate is based on a assumed annual increase of five per cent in operating costs for the equivalent of a full time student in a Public school. But the study s authors admit the projection in t As. Firmly based As those they were Able to make for the province s other educational systems. Because of the Pace and the recent nature of expansion in vocational training in Manitoba the usual projection techniques Are quite inadequate to provide a View of the the report says i enrolment was particularly difficult to Deal with in vocational education where there Are More students in Short courses than in full time Cour ses. And some of the province s vocational schools Are so new that it s difficult to say much More about enrolment than that it has been sharply up and seems Likely to continue going up rather according to the report the Post secondary two year courses leading to diplomas in technology and the applied arts which have recently been introduced Are Likely to become the most important and ultimately most expensive vocational pro Grams. Since establishment of the Manitoba Institute of technology technology course enrol ment has risen to about from 304 in 1963. A substantial part of Mit s enrolment could be transferred to the new Manitoba Institute of applied arts when it opens this autumn. But with continued expansion of the science based technologies at Mit and the offering of new courses at the Mia the enrolment at the two institutions should sharply in crease and May reach the report says full time enrolment is expected to be considerably higher by 1975 but it difficult to predict the rate at which further growth will take the explosive growth expected in the next year or so can t be maintained indefinitely but More than students might be enrolled in vocational pro Grams in the province in 1969. Allowing for some tapering off in the rate of increase in enrolment Post secondary full tune enrolment May conservatively be projected to by the year says the report. Enrolment in courses provi Ding Trade training was also expected to increase substantially. Here one of the most important stimulants is the establishment of additional institutions in areas where Access to Sush facilities is presently average monthly enrolment in 1966-in trades courses was at training institutions in Winni Peg Brandon and the Pas. Total average enrolment might be More than by 1975. Analysis of vocational Educa Tion expenditures was made particularly difficult by wide variations in per student opera Ting costs and capital expenditures in different programs says the report. But by making adjustments full time equivalent enrolment in vocational institutions was established at about in 1966, compared to about in 1964 and in 1965. Operating expenditures were thus projected using full time student equivalents and Assum ing an annual five per cent increase in. Operating expenditures for each of them. On that basis operating costs salaries supplies expenses and apprenticeship training Are expected to increase from million in 1967 to million in 1972 and million in 1975. Farm income for Manitoba 1952-1967 Index Index value of total net Cost of prices production costs income production received millions of dollars 1939 100 1952 366 204 162 243 267 1953 286 173 119 239 245 1954 248 178 70 237 228 1955 283 195 88 235 226 1956 316 187 129 243 227 1957 272 199 73 251 222 1958 341 212 129 258 237 1959 338 236 102 266 241 1960 352 244 108 273 241 1961 277 220 57 278 262 1962 426 264 162 285 278 1963 383 276 107 291 268 1964 433 276 157 303 262 1965 469 301168 315 269 1966 495 340 155 332 274 1967 483 350 .133 352 265 personal income personal income per person Manitoba and Canada 1962 1963 1964 1965 dollars Manitoba Canada percentage change 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 Manitoba -0.3 7.0 6.6 6.5. 9.8 Canada 4.5 4.8 8.8 8.2 7.5 d.b.s., National income and expenditure. Revised. . 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