Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - May 15, 1972, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg Fri pubs monday. May 15, 1972 moment of truth draws near in Indochina London special the economist it fell to Pitt in 1803, alter the Best army of its time had beaten the numerically Superior combined forces of Bri Tain s two main Continental allies at Austerlitz to say that people might As Well Roll up the map of Europe for the next ten years. There comes a moment As it did then in the War against Napoleon when there is apparently no Appeal against the facts of the Battlefield. That moment has not yet come in Indochina there Are still things that might be done to catch the downward slide of events if the South vietnamese army resists the instinct to panic if the americans find a Way to make air Power Tell after All if the North Vietnam Ese army has exhausted itself in this offensive As much As the calculations had said any Ordi nary army ought to have exhausted itself. But it needs All of these relatively unlikely things to happen for the Situa Tion to be saved. If they do not the collapse of the 3rd division at Quang Tri looks very like a turning Point. It is a turning Point because Quang Tri is the capital of a province and president Thieu has made the holding of such capitals the test of Success or defeat in this Battle because it May have opened the Way to Hue and beyond Hue to where the North vietnamese and the Viet Cong have been moving out of the Central Highlands to wards the sea and because the 3rd division s rout puts some of South Vietnam s better fighting units in danger. On All these counts unless those unlikely things can be made to happen general Giap s army is showing that it is thoroughly the master of Indochina. This time the failure is not a failure of . Will. Of course the North vietnamese might never have got across the Cua Viet River if the americans were still willing to keep any sort of fighting army in the country. But they Are not that Battle of the american will was fought and lost in 1968. This time the failure is in Vietnam and it is one that is going to affect very Many people. The North vietnamese won at Quang Tri because they beat air Power. It never seemed very Likely once the americans had taken their ground troops out of the War that the South vietnamese army would be Good enough by 1972 to fight both the Viet Cong and the North vietnamese at the same time on its own. It had to show that it could keep the Viet Cong under control and it has done that successfully enough for the past three years but the necessary margin of assistance against an attack across the Borders by North Vietnam s regulars was to be provided by . Air Power. That was the Core of president Nixon s policy. On the evidence of what has happened in almost every War since 1940 when aircraft have met infantry and tank s in More or less open country it should have worked. It did not work at Quang Tri. Either the North vietnamese have found a Way of moving an army across country that makes it less vulnerable to air attack As after 1918 the in Fantry had to find a Way of moving that made them less vulnerable to machine guns or they have been Able to carry so Many anti aircraft guns with them and use them so effectively that the planes have been held at Arm s length. Either Way it is not Only the americans assumptions that have been upset so have those of most other countries Mili tary planners. General Giap May now do either of two things if in fact his army is not brought to a halt by its own losses. He May try to Roll on to the total defeat of the South vietnamese army so that his friends would be in Power in Saigon by the end of the summer. He has said in his essay people s War people s Victory that he believes the War will end in a climactic Mil itary Victory and the Way the opposing armies Are disposed around Korntum and an Loc May make him think that two More Hammer blows there would Pelt that Victory in his grasp. The oru Job left for the Diplo Mats then would be to ratify the rubble. But an attempt to finish the War off now would mean prolonging his Gamble on the ineffectiveness of air Power and it would also mean he was taking the extra risk of what or. Nixon might do against North Vietnam itself if he were faced with the Prospect of total humiliation in election year. So it is at least As Likely that Gen eral Giap will Content himself the alternative which is to try to Korntum and per haps Hue and then Stop while ment in Saigon that the communists want to put in place of the Thieu Cabinet. That would amount to unconditional surrender and it will probably need an unconditional military defeat to bring it about. It might be enough for North Vietnam s leaders if they could get air. Nixon to agree to withdraw the last of his troops from the country in return for a ceasefire and handing Over their few Hundred . Prison ers. It might even satisfy them if or. Thieu changed his own peace terms he has offered to resign a month before an election in which the National liberation front would take part and which it would help to supervise by resigning say six months before election Day. And even if they got neither of those things they May very Likely be prepared to wait until next year for the attempt at a final Knock out. They would know they have badly damaged the South Viet namese army they would have got the Viet Cong Back into some towns and villages for a few weeks at least above All they would have got their army across the Border. The Border is important to the leaders in Hanoi because they want t deny that North Vietnam am South Vietnam Are two separate countries one of the main Pur poses of this easter s offensive was to apply an Eraser to it. If this is really the Prospect before be plan and Truong Chinh and general Giap it is not easy to see How a non Corn Monist Republic is going to sur Vive in South Vietnam or How or. Nixon is going to make Good his Promise that he would not let it be Defeated. The Only instrument left to the United states is air Power and if thai tails his policy fails with it. Ii is a Bleak accounting and there Are Only two things to be set on the other Side of the Ledger. Yet those two things Are Worth say ing. The first is that the fighting of april and May has been predominantly and Unm Staka a Battle Between the or Janizek armies of two states. The War has always been some Hing More than a civil War be tween two groups of South vietnamese and it looks less Ike one now than it has Ever Lone. Of course the local guerrillas air pirate gets 40 year sentence the politicians in Washington and Saigon digest the consequences of this May s fighting. The aim of giving them this pause for reflection would not necessarily be to make or. Nixon and or. Thieu accept the provisional coalition govern by the associated press an admitted air plane Hijacker was sentenced Friday to 40 years in prison and another alleged air pirate was ordered examined for what his lawyer said was a brain tumor. A third Man pleaded guilty to threatening to destroy a Hughes air West plane. Sentenced in Denver Colo., to Federal prison was Richard Lapoint 23, of Revere mass. Lapoint pleaded guilty april 12 to the Jan. 20 Hijack of a Hughes air West dc-9. He parachuted from the plane with in Ransom and was Cap tured near Akron Colo. In Salt Lake City Utah a judge ordered an examination for Richard f. Mccoy 29, a Brigham Young University Law enforcement student and an Amateur skydiver. He is charged with hijacking a United air lines plane on april 7, obtaining san Francis co by holding the Captain at gunpoint and parachuting from the Jet Over his Hometown of Provo Utah. All but of the Money has been recovered Fri agents said. Leon Earl Faultersack 38, a disabled War Veteran from Granger Utah pleaded guilty to threatening to destroy a Hughes air West plane two Days after the Provo incident. He was charged with making Calls to Hughes air West in san Francisco demanding transportation to Cuba. A Date for sentencing was not set. He is subject to a Fine of up to and five years in prison. Lapoint is the first person to be sentenced who parachuted from a hijacked plane with a Ransom. Mccoy who faces the death penalty if convicted did not enter a plea. Soviet deserts ship Canberra Reuter an electrician aboard the soviet liner Shota Rusta Veli has jumped ship and sought political Asylum in Australia immigration department officials said saturday. The Man deserted from the ship before it left Syd Ney for a cruise of the South Pacific wednesday. To acquaint you with fort Garry Trust Well pay you one Dollar to savings account with How sure we Are that once you know us you la stay with us. Why because we want you As a customer and we think you la want to Bank on our special kind of service and interest rates. At fort Garry Trust we pay a fat 5% on your savings account of our branches Are open saturdays. Take a trip to fort Garry Trust. You might land in Spain All persons opening savings accounts or making deposits to existing accounts Between now and May 15th will be eligible to Complete an entry form and win a Winter vacation for two in sunny Spain. For further information visit one of our four offices. When you need someone you can really Bank on Bank on fort Garry Trust. Port Garry Trust company at Smith 947-1667 q. Portage at collegiate 888-1861 open sat Selkirk at Mcgregor 589-7311 open sat 1181 Pembina Highway 452-3533 open sat member Canida corporation of the Viet Cong who survived the defeat of 1968 have come out of their hidden Camps to take part in this offensive and they have captured a number of towns in the Centre of the country and probably some a the Mekong Delta too. But their part has been a subsidiary one and it would not have been pos sible at All if the North Viet n a m e s e regulars had not marched across the Border. The argument for the original american intervention in 1965 was that Over the previous five years North Vietnam had consistently been giving the Viet Cong enough help including to wards the end the help of organized military units to make the difference Between winning and losing and that if this Northern backed revolution had succeeded it would have set up the sort of government a majority of South vietnamese did not want. That was the argument in 1965, and the events of the past month have done nothing to damage it. North Vietnam has had to Send Al Trost its whole army in to win nit by sending its army in it has destroyed its own propaganda about the nature of the it is even possible that this May have some effect on what Lappens next. It gives or. Nixon a Little More Freedom of action some of his critics in he Senate have said that an overt North vietnamese in Vasion makes it a different sort if War and the opinion polls How that so far a majority of americans support the renewed bombing of North Vietnam. The trouble is that there is so ittle or. Nixon can do apart from hoping that the tactical bombing will Start to work unless he attacks North Viet Nam on a scale that would probably turn opinion Back against him and might not even change the course of the Battle in the South. The open intervention of general Giap s army has also a problem for the National liberation front by drawing attention to its dependence on North Vietnam. That will not help the front to win any extra support. Perhaps that is Why North Vietnam s chief negotiator at the Paris talks said recently that he did not propose to set up a communist government in Saigon. All one can say about that is that if the sort of coalition he wants did not Lead to a communist government within three or four years it would be the first time in the history of such communist sponsored coalitions that the dog had failed to wag the Tail. But the Odds Are that none of this is going to make much Dif Ference and that a the end the one sentence which sums up the Var will be that the better army beat the worse one. It will then be said that the Reater efficiency of the North vietnamese army proves that it s the vehicle of a Superior political idea. It does not. The British have seen too Many of their friends in rout at vaporetto in 1917, on the Meuse n 1940, even their own army in March 1918, to confuse morale with politics. The efficiency of a country s armed services is no measure of the desirability of its political system if it were Hitler would have had he most desirable political sys pm of the mid twentieth Century. It is not even a measure of the popularity of the system among the men actually serv ing in the forces the press ganged seamen of the superbly efficient British Navy that stopped Napoleon were not admirers of Pitt. Of course there Are people who believe that the vietnamese communists represent the forces of liberalism and enlightenment in Southeast Asia today just As there were people in Britain 170 years ago who believed that Napoleon re presented the forces of libera 1 i s m and enlightenment in Europe. The comparison can be left to stand. The communists today like Napoleon then have their origins in a genuine belief in so Cial Justice but like Napoleon they have also created a sys tem of Power 4hat inevitably slides into dictatorship and thereby corrupts the original idea. The other thing that needs to be said is about the part the russians Are playing in this crisis. Pretty clearly the Ameri cans had hoped that the soviet Union would be willing to Dis courage North Vietnam from launching a major offensive this year in the belief that this would make the americans More accommodating in other matters in the missile talks in the next stage of the euro Pean negotiations in providing credit for the technology. Russia wants to buy from the West. After All or. Nixon s visit to China and the removal of Tai wan from the United nations seem to have made the chinese a bit More amenable. The americans must have hoped hat it would work the same Way with the .s.r. It his not. The russians have provided North Vietnam with the weapons that made this Offen Sive possible including the essential anti aircraft guns and let it use them. No doubt they have measured the risk that or. Nixon May now refuse to come across with his Side of the assumed bar gain. But they May reckon that with the election Campaign Al ready beginning and with the expectations he has built up in american minds about his visit to Moscow he will have no Choice but to proceed with the Agenda As if Vietnam did not exist they can get Vietnam and still get the other things they want too. And they May be right if the hint that or. Nixon s spokes Man dropped about the missile talks recently is anything to go by. The russians do not often Gamble but they May be play ing it the Gambler s Way this and if it works they May even try it somewhere else. If they Are right or. Nixon May be faced with More than the failure of his Vietnam policy. He May also have to con template the failure of the United states As a Power capable of operating a coherent worldwide policy towards the soviet Union a policy which balances events in Europe with those in Asia and latin America and Africa and insists on the Prin Ciple of give and take and re quires an accounting at the end of the Day. There is no other country in the non communist world that can do that if the United states cannot. It May not be Only the map of Vietnam that is beginning to be rolled up. Carling Black Label the world s leading International Beer. For Carling Black Label we blend and brew Only the finest ingredients. With patience with care to bring out All their flavour. Then we give the brew More time in our Cool quiet cellars so that Black Label slowly matures to perfection. If you like a Beer with flavour try a Black Label. Enjoy the full flavour that is conquering thirsts All Over the world. Carling Black and enjoyed in Over 60 countries around the lobe ;