Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - February 13, 1975, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free press thursday february 13, 1975 new . Energy Survey forecasts shortage in 25 years Ivy Thomas Oto Lii Washington special tons the United Stales will run Cul of Oil and natural Yas in 25 years not the 40 to 60 years forecast by the Federil Energy administration the Interior department and the White House. That was the gloomy judg ment made earlier this week by the National Academy of sciences whose National re search Council has just com p 1 e t e d a two to three year study of the nation s reserves of Oil natural Gas and other chronically scarce minerals. The study was financed by the Interior department the National science foundation and the population Council a Pri vate foundation. A e think the estimates made in the past by the . Government were i by said Yale University s Brian skinner., chairman of the research Council s com Mittee on Mineral resources and the environment which made the report Public. Think these the Council s estimates Are much More realistic than the numbers currently in use in the the study cast serious doubt on the White House program to achieve Energy Independence which assumes almost a Dou bling of Oil and natural Gas output in the next 10 years. The study concludes that the . Does not have enough Oil and Gas locked up onshore and offshore to increase Oil and Gas production substantially. Project Independence has built into it some very High estimates Oil and Gas re Yale s or. Skinner told a press conf Niece at the National Academy of sciences. If project Independence de pends on increasing Oil production in the ., then it s on very shaky the National research coun cil settled on an estimate of Snow leaves . In chaos by the Canadian press roads on Northern Van Couver Island the lower main land and the Southern Interior of British Columbia were in chaos wednesday after an overnight storm dropped As much As 29 inches of Snow in some areas. C a s s i d y Airport South of Nanaimo on Vancouver Island reported a record 29 inches of Snow while the City Centre received 11 inches. All area schools were closed transit service was cancelled and a highways department official said work Crews wore out three sets of chains during the night. In the Malahat pass area South of the City 18 inches of Snow was reported. In the co Wichan Valley 35 Miles South of Nanaimo Homes were with out Power since Midnight tues Day. A spokesman for . Hydro said Homes in the Salt Spring and the Gulf islands also were without Power and heat. In the Parksville qual icum school District no school buses were running and Only a few schools were open. At Courtenay schools were open but no buses were run Ning. About 18 inches fell on the area overnight and chains were mandatory on the Island Highway to the North. Ii i g i w a y s in the lower Mainland were passable but service in Many areas was Cut to single Lane traffic. In the Interior the trans Canada Highway was closed at three Valley Gap 120 Miles East of Kamloops by High winds and Drifting Snow. The trans Canada was also closed in the Fraser Canyon by slides in the Sailor bar Tunnel. Police reported blowing Snow Between Sailor bar and Hope with patches of Black ice in places. The Rogers pass was reported barely passable. The Hope area received More than a foot of Snow Over night with More falling and heavy Drifting reported. The trans Canada Highway be tween Chilliwack and was reduced to one Lane traffic in places. The West Kootenay Region received up to a foot of Snow. Highways were open but motorists were advised to stay Home. Ramp said Highway 99 from Vancouver North to Squamish was temporarily closed. 113 billion barrels of Undis covered Oil for . Reserves. It settled on an additional 37 billion barrels of Oil flowing from already discovered Wells for a total of 150 billion. Fully 70 per cent of this Oil the Council said is in Alaska and offshore . Wells. The Council also figured Nat ural Gas reserves at no Mure than 600 trillion cubic feet most of it offshore and much of it in Alaska. Both Oil and natural Gas re serves Are enough for the next 25 years assuming consumption remains the same. The . Currently uses about six billion barrels of Oil a year and Between 22 and 23 trillion cubic feet of Gas. The Academy s downbeat conclusions in direct opposition to what the Federal government has Long been saying came As something of a sur prise for the quasi governmental body. The Academy has been known to Rock the boat on occasion but rarely As boldly As it has this time. The Council estimate for Oil and natural Gas Are dramatic comedown from the . Geo logical Survey s Reserve estimates which have guided the government. The Survey has estimated Oil reserves at be teen 250 and 400 billion barrels and natural Gas reserves at Al most trillion cubic feet. These estimates were used by the Eisenhower Kennedy and Johnson administrations in keeping quotas on Oil imports. They were also used publicly by the Interior department the Federal Energy administration and the White House in the past five years to formulate Energy policy. Behind the dramatically Dif Ferent estimates lie two schools of thought on How to reckon Mineral reserves. The geological Survey estimate is based on what might be called assessment b y while the research Council Fig ures reflect a growing belief in assessment by mathematics. Roughly the Survey estimates say the . Has explored about one fifth of the sediments below ground on Shore and offshore that Bear Oil and natural Gas. The estimates therefore assume that the . Have produced one fifth of the Oil and Gas in those sediments and can produce five times that in the Long run. The mathematic assessments take what More and More Oil men believe is a More realistic View. They say that drillers dug Down into one fifth of the Oil and Gas bearing sediment and on the basis of various mathematical projections is t i m a t e that . Producers have found at least half of what they Are going to find in effect the easy half. The fact that onshore Oil Fields have been dwindling for the last five years tends to support ibis approach. Or. Skinner said the panel exhaustively examined five Dif Ferent estimates of Oil and Gas reserves four of which differed from the geological sur vey estimate. The other four gave similar numbers All of them lower than the Survey s. The panel suspected the Survey estimates to be unrealistically or. Skinner said and in looking at the other estimates decided the earlier estimate used faulty conversion mathematics. Had the Correct ones been used their estimates would be greatly scaled project Independence has Long assumed that the . Has enough Oil and Gas to raise output of Oil and natural Gas liquids from 10.5 to 18 million barrels a Day by 1985. It also assumed natural Gas production might be increased from 20 trillion cubic feet to 29 tril lion cubic feet. This would have been True if the . Possessed the off Shore equivalent of the persian said one Energy expert who asked not to be identified. We Don to and this Council panel report confirms Western drug Mart deflation prices effective until february 19th see How Low our prices go bathroom tissue to 2 ply 4 s Sylvania 6-pack 60 or 100 Watt Light bulbs 1.19 dental floss Johnsons 200 yes. List 3.18. Nivea Creme 4 of. List 1.89. Nivea milk 6 of. List 1.99. Redan 6 of. 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