Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - June 14, 1979, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free june focus Brezhnev goodbye May trigger renewal of world arms race with soviet president Leonid Brezhnev and the Kremlin old Fuard rapidly on the Way Alt ii becomes an Issue in a crucial Moscow Power in this second article of a soviet affairs expert and journalist Victor Zorza describes the conflict which has raged secretly in the Kremlin during Leonid Brezhnev Long once Salt ii is signed at the Vienna Summit june Zorza Brezhnev will be soon out of Power and the Moscow Hawks and doves will be at each others throats in a Battle whose outcome will have critical Impact on future East West by Victor Zorza in the United states the dispute about the terms of Salt ii promises to be the most serious foreign policy debate in Many in the soviet Union the debate on the same issues May be confined to a few dozen or at the most a few Hundred members of the governing elite who know How to keep their it is Only because the policy debate has become enmeshed with the struggle to succeed aging party Boss Leonid Brezhnev that we can see there is any dispute at his crowning feat who has come to regard the conclusion of the Salt ii treaty As the chief goal of his last years in and has spoken of it As if it were the crowning of his political seems at least to have made sure that the treaty will be signed when he meets president Carter at the Vienna Summit on june but Brezhnev can no More ensure the subsequent ratification of the treaty by the soviet unon than Carter can guarantee its ratification by the sen As is Only too Brezhnev suffers a real loss of Power in the coming then the succession struggle now dimly visible under the surface of Kremlin politics could easily become the Bohol debarred contest that All previous soviet Suc cession struggles have invariably be and in those Circum the Senate insists on amending the Salt treaty in ways which would make it less accept Able to the soviet the Kremlin hardliners would have every reason to Welcome the for they could use them to reopen those issues on which they feel Brezhnev has conceded too and this would destroy Salt ii even More thoroughly than any Senate Amend the arms race which Washington and Moscow have struggled so hard to bring under control for the past 10 years would then break out with new yielding new weapons of Awe some Power and devouring the increasingly limited resources of both but what happens if the treaty if first ratified by the United and then the hardliners win the Suc cession struggle in the soviet Union presidential adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski says that we should work now to ensure that future soviet Lead ers that Brezhnev successors have a Clear understanding of and he believes that the ratification of the treaty would achieve that when the next generation of soviet leaders decides its policies towards strategic arms and towards the United he we want them to face Clear and agreed restraints on the Competition in strategic until recently it has been generally assumed officials and by Al most All Western experts on these Viet Union that the next Genera Tion of which Brzezinski Speaks would come to Power Only after a transition period of several the it was would be presided Over by Andrei Pirilen just As the old guard had planned and he would carry on the policies established during the Brezhnev re struggle has begun but what the new evidence suggests is that the struggle for the succession has been joined before any transition whether it is to be headed by Kirilenko or by Konstantin May have had a Chance to establish Brezhnev now seems to believe that Chernenko is More Likely to continue his policies than Kirilenko and he May Well be but the most probable outcome of a struggle Between these two members of the ruling Geron Toracy is that the old guard Jill be weakened As a and that the next will refuse to accept the subordinate role in which it has acquiesced so when the Geron Toracy begins to crumble either because age has caught up with r because its members fall out with each other the younger members of the ruling elite will see their and they will take the old guard Long been aware of this it is no coincidence that almost All the Mem Bers of the politburo purged during the Brezhnev regime were younger men who had shown an awareness of the need for for new policies to overcome the stagnation of the soviet Economy and of the one exception was the rough dismissal of president Nikolai pod Gorny two years and the Depar Ture of this 72yearold member of the inner politburo revealed the first crack in the solid Wall which the ruling Geron Toracy had previously presented to the outside the average age of the top five members of the politburo Berezh and Chernenko is now this is Only a Little More than the average All the 13 members of the politburo taken which is creeping up to but some of them must be regarded As relatively Young at least by politburo standards and the most gifted of these is the head of the Yuri who is he has worked using the Spe Cial channels available to to establish himself in the Public View As an progressive Leader who might be ready to initiate the Radical reforms which the soviet sys tem needs after 15 years of immobility under his popular image is by no Means the sinister blend of corruption and villainy that the West usually associates with the soviet Security ser his Kab Post could be a drawback if the other leaders fear that he might use the secret police against but it could also bean advantage in the struggle for the Kab was an important instrument in the struggle for both the Stalin and the Khrushchev the Man who controls the secret police starts with a considerable Andropov also has the in his colleagues that he is not a professional but one of their own a former party Secretary and Diplomat who was put in charge of the Security service to ensure its obedience to the most foreign observers believe that his Kab background would present an almost insuperable obstacle to him in the succession but if Kirilenko and Chernenko eliminate each other in the contest they have now Andropov might Well move up into the As a Compromise another politburo member who is also 65 is the Moscow City party Viktor Grishin a colourless Bureau Craft who is thought to be in poor if he is considered at All by his colleagues for the top it would Only be As a Compromise candidate acceptable to them because he is unlikely to assert himself Over All the other politburo members would seem to be out of the marshal Dmitri the de sense and foreign minister Andrei have their age against As Well As a highly specialized background which does no qualify them for the top the two youngest the Lenin Grad party Boss Grigori 57 and the ukrainian party Vladimir have Only limited regional they have been deliberately kept by their elders out of where they would have to serve an apprenticeship be fore1 they could acquire the compe tence to Rule the country As a but if the struggle for Power becomes As vicious As it did in some of the previous succession the old rules which Are Only rules of thumb anyway might cease to that is Why the outbreak of the Kirilenko Chernenko contest has opened the door wide to the new possibilities which the ruling Geron Toracy had hoped to close off by ensuring an orderly the possibility which the old guard must fear most is that a real new generation of party the men in their 50s who have been kept so deliberately and so systematically out of the but who fill Many of the posts at the next will make their Way into the Polit buro As soon As new posts become once in they might Well strike out in new for these would be men with a different set of the second level soviet officials now entering their 50s were in their mid20s when Stalin they were Young enough to have got caught up in the atmosphere of the reforms initiated by in the excitement of and to have rejoiced in the condemnation of stains Rule of they have Learned in the past 20 years that they need not fear for their lives if they want to try out new political copyright c 1979 by Victor Zorza greek cypriot president Spyros Kyprianou top right and turkish Community Leader Rauf Denktash agreed on a formula for tomorrows peace talks on the troubled Island is one of the few spots where the in still has Cyprus is looking up by Kevin Michael Cape Cyprus the prospects for peace on this divided Island seem better today than at any time since the turkish invasion five years peace talks Between the greek and turkish communities will begin Friday though they Are certain to last for if not the momentum is building amidst a mood of muted opt in preliminary negotiations Only recently greek to cypriot presi Dent Spyros Kyprianou and turkish Community Leader Rauf Denktash agreed on a quadripartite formula As a basis for the mid june according to the first two Points of the Denktash and Kyprianou will move quickly toward resettlement of the no abandoned greek sector of other Points Deal with the withdrawal of the Turk ish soldiers still on the and a political Compromise in which the greeks would agree to forget about while the turks would accept the principle of a loosely United cypriot but the most difficult Issue has been left out of the framework the greeks want the turks to give up half the land seized five years ago by the turkish the turks Are prepared to give up Only about 25 per cent of their Terri the fact that Kyprianou and Denktash have agreed to talk at All is a tribute to the persuasive Powers of in Secretary general Kurt though the United nations has become a laughingstock in much of the Here it is the Only outside party capable of eliciting some degree of cooperation from both time to make Money for the Man on the Street Here has a Strong desire to get on with making Money rather than on the greek Side of what the press Calls the Green line the greeks Call it the Attila the Hun a shopkeeper named Ster gios reports that business is the first year after the turks land he the tourists stayed that year my family had to eat mostly what we could grow ourselves or some vegetal All of our traditional English visitors Are we Are floating in Sterling and unemployment is Stergios added a parting shot with a slightly malevolent i hear its not that Way on the other he the shopkeeper was not exaggerating when he spoke of the Cyprus was never the land of bargain basement holidays like the Costa de sol or some of the greek and the clientele that it attracts today appears Richer than it is no coincidence that per capita income on the greek Side is at least and May be As High As which is rather affluent for this part of the in a turkish Village with gleaming whitewashed houses set like opals against an Emerald there is the quiet satisfaction that the turkish army has Given its cypriot Brethren the upper hand at the time of the turkish Western newspapers wrote Long and lugubrious accounts of turkish atrocities on greeks doubtless True but forgotten was the Case of the turkish which is at least As a cafe manager named Oguz expressed the Universal turkish desire to retain some element of political never again will we let the greeks come into our villages and humiliate us As in the he no greek will Ever Rule balancing steamy cups of Oguz that Doest mean we want this continued state of we want the europeans to come Here As Well As to the greek Side Ges Turing toward his Hal empty there will not be another War Here the last one was bad for with such a Long history of Mutual there is a tendency to As sume that the Cyprus conflict will last for but this is not not so Long it seemed that after four wars in 25 Egypt and Israel were condemned to repeat the conflicts until both were consumed by co Fla yet today there is a reasonable Hope for a lasting peace Between the encouraging signs the chances for at least a modes Visendi Between greek and turkish cypriots Are particularly Good now because of the renewed dialogue be tween the Mother another encouraging sign is that More and More cypriots Are beginning to think and talk less of the past than of the though predictions about this epic Island and its people Are Hazard one senses a joint resolve that the future will be an improvement Over the immediate the los Angeles times Kevin Michael a native of has travelled extensively in he just completed a year of teaching at the John Kennedy school in socialist junk unsold Dps Coop Outlook for schools million probably the most controversial car Toon is the one that depicts an individual in evening Complete with High silk big Cigar Label still spats and wearing oversized his face set firmly in a he is throttling a Coop whose eyes Are and whose Tongue is hanging a close second for controversy is the cartoon depicting the Winnipeg Grain with wickets labelled we buy wheat we sell it customers ignore the clerks at these who Are wearing riverboat gambling to patronize the wicket labelled Grain growers Grain this wicket is staffed by a hatless backed by four poor but honest Farmers with wheat bags in other cartoons Are a bit More in answer to the question is Man by nature a individualistic or a cooperative being the individual who answers yes is shown with a big padlock on his while the one who answers no presumably to the first part of the question has a mind expanded by Clouds and a the text is no less a Bank is defined As a profit Corpora owned and operated for the Benefit of its organized to sell financial in a competitive to the a credit Union u de scribed us a group of people United by Fred Cleverley a common Bond to provide its Mem Bers with a Means of saving As Well As All Are contained in a course de signed for Manitoba schools that is entitled cooperative there Are two one is devoted to business the other to social the pamphlets and teach ing guides Cost More than probably the strongest reason Why they Are not in general use in schools is that the government changed in just before they were to be education minister Keith Cosens claims he has not suppressed but says there has been no Stampede among school divisions anxious to obtain it is easy to see Why the conserva Tives would not be enthusiastic about distributing economic develop ment minister Frank in the complained that the tax payers Money printed this the illustrations Are ones that show always the bad Guys Are the free enter conservative Bac Bencher Henry Einarson said he would not want his or his exposed to this kind of political teaching at a Young he said when they become adults they will decide for themselves whether or not they want to remain part of a free Enterprise sys Wally another conserva Tive was particularly upset at the part of the course that called for schoolchildren to portray great thinkers in a play that included Thomas Robert Karl Thomas Huxley and words Mckenzie complained of the not of the he said this jargon of socialist junk the conclusion reached suggests the kind of social and economic system most Likely to Benefit Mckenzie particularly objected to the statement in the play that said cooperation was known to the this cooperation exists for the purpose of making the Rich he also objected to its wrong to believe that individualism and Competition Are the Best principles under which to base a social and eco nomic if the conservatives object to the new who were responsible for its Are upset by the fact that it is not being distributed to the school Ben Hanuschak said the material had been developed in close cooperation with All sectors of the Manitoba and had involved administrators and people in the Coop Hanus Chak said the program had been piloted in Winni the Altona and Hanuschak was not surprised that few school divisions had responded to the offer made by the education min he said it is not the Type of program that one could simply Send a memo it is a Type of that does require the department to acquaint the teachers with the method ology of the proper and effective use of this the conservatives believe the plan has gone too far they Are More interested in recovering the Money already they believe that Saskatchewan could be and May pay the printing costs to get the entire Supply of ;