Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - April 8, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free press wednesday indexing gambit May be coming Ottawa the moment of truth about inflation and about the state of Federal finances is arriving with a vengeance in Ottawa. It is suddenly a matter of deep con Cern that inflation As measured by increases in the consumer Price Index is bounding along at a year Over year rate of about 12 per cent. Less than six months ago finance minister Allan Maceachen predicted in his oct. 28 budget that the inflation rate for 1981 would be 10.2 per cent. Now Maceachen concedes it might be As High As 12 per cent. And he has indicated that he will produce a revised statement on the Economy this Spring to update last fall s projections. The statement if and when it comes will not Only acknowledge a higher rate of inflation blamed on Energy food and interest costs but it will reflect improved economic activity in terms of growth of Gross National product and employment Over that which was projected last october. But the underlying theme will be that present economic growth will be Short lived unless the inflation rate is slowed. Highly placed officials now concede they were Overly optimistic last fall when they assumed economic growth would be immediately and sharply affected by High interest rates. High rates insufficient the present prevailing View is that interest rates alone Are not enough to bring about a Quick decline in economic activity nor in the rate of inflation. This View was fully expressed in the 1980 annual report of the Bank of Canada. Governor Gerald Bouey of the Bank of Canada noted we have seen in Canada and in a number of other countries the Pursuit of anti inflation Ary policies without As yet much Evi Dence of a reduction in the rate of control Over the rate of monetary expansion is an absolutely essential element in effective anti inflationary policy Bouey stated. He offered some regrets in retrospect that the Bank had not followed a More stringent monetary policy in 1973-77. Since 1979, Bouey said the Bank of Canada had been firm in reducing the Peter Thomson Ottawa editor rate of increase in the Money Supply. And it is continuing that policy. He announced a further reduction to a Range of four to eight per cent in increase in the narrowly defined cur Rency and demand deposits Money Supply. For the past year the objective Range had been five to nine per cent. Reasons Why there Are several reasons Why restrictions on Money Supply growth had not reduced inflation to a greater de Gree Over the last few years. First it took a Long time to erode Public Confidence in the future value of Money. To restore it will require sustained efforts and much patience. Second the decline in value of the Canadian Dollar on foreign Exchange markets was largely a delayed Conse Quence of higher rates and costs in Canada than in the . Over the dec Ade that preceded it. And the Sharp decline in Canadian currency Contri buted to inflation. Another Factor was that the effective capacity of the Economy to produce without overheating has grown at a much slower rate than it did earlier. The increase in Petroleum prices was another impediment to the reduction of inflation in Canada in recent years and Bouey warns this is going to be a continuing problem in Canada As we catch up with the Rise in world Oil finally in explaining the Lack of Success in attacking inflation Bouey noted that while governments tried to reduce budgetary deficits in the last half of the 1970s, the deficits still contributed to inflation the provincial governments taken together have succeeded in reducing their fiscal deficits though there was a great disparity in their individual situations. The government of Canada however has experienced a Large and grow ing Over All det Icil and in the4ast few years its net borrowing requirements Nave been of the order of four per cent of Gross National expenditure. From the Point of View of dealing with inflation this was an uncomfortably Large deficit for the government of Canada to have at a time when the level of economic activity relative to the Economy s demonstrated capacity was As High As it then was. I am pleased that in the last budget the government recognized the need to reduce its Over All deficit in the years in other words if inflation is to be reduced it will take a More reasoned fiscal policy As Well As monetary restraint to accomplish it. That brings one immediately Back to Mace Cheirs projections for 1981. Will the deficit be larger inflationary or smaller than was projected last octo Ber revenues rising obviously the economic growth which has surpassed predictions will provide More tax Revenue than was expected and will have the Side effect of making the deficit a smaller percent age of Gross National expenditure than it otherwise would have been. On the other hand there Are increased government expenditures implicit in the High inflation rates and High interest rates Are now being experienced. For example the government recently announced a 2.25 per cent in crease in interest rates until nov. 1, 1981, on billion of Canada savings Bonds that Are now outstanding. Similarly other borrowing being done by the government is at a sharply higher rate than had been anticipated when projections were made last octo Ber. Debt charges Are going to be considerably higher than expected. With about 19 per cent of revenues now needed just to pay interest on the National debt the government clearly is not going to have an easy time of it trying to reduce deficits in years to come. And that is the painful truth that is being brought Home to the politicians and mandarins of Ottawa. It perhaps accounts for Maceachen s finance minister Allan Maceachen left and Bank of Canada governor Gerald Bouey Are using High interest rates and Money Supply restrictions in their attempt to restrain inflation. Reluctance to make any commitments regarding pensions following last week s three Day pension conference in the capital. It accounts for the Advance warnings that have been issued to the effect that the Federal government will take a hard stand in negotiations of Federal Provin Cial fiscal arrangements and established programs financing negotiations that Are to get under Way this summer to take effect next april 1. And it undoubtedly accounts for the intensity of the Federal government s drive to grab a big piece of Revenue out of provincial resources. For although the Federal government has projected smaller and smaller deficits Over the next few years it is counting heavily on resource taxes to produce the revenues to make it Possi ble. Two new taxes on natural Gas and Gas liquids Armun production of Oil and Gas in Canada were expected to yield billion Over the next three years for Federal coffers. Now after an Alberta Appeal court decision it is questionable that the Federal government can tap the Energy tax source to the extent it wants. So there Are murders in Ottawa about other tax increases on the capital gains tax or on personal taxes through a reduction in indexing of exemptions All to be blamed on the Energy producing provinces. The murders one expects will again become shouts for As Bouey put it the struggle against inflation will be front stage Centre for quite a while to come. And government deficits Are very much a part of the inflation Bat the. Filibuster has increased Jeanne Sauve s stature Ottawa except perhaps in the 17th Century when parliaments had to decide whether to chop off the King s head no speaker in any British style legislature has had to go through the ordeal Jeanne Sauve has had to endure for the past two weeks and will have to endure for All the coming weeks that the conservatives continue their Fili Buster. At the end of each Day her eyes smarting from the Klieg lights in the commons chamber and her Back Ach ing from what she an exceedingly uncomfortable chair no matter How impressive it Sauve walks along the corridor to her Wood panelled speaker s office puts her feet up and unwinds with a pot of Sauve does not use anything stronger to dissolve her inner tensions because i Don t anyway the Strain of being forced to remain in the speaker s chair each entire Day Rule on the questions of privilege All of them Spuri Ous by which the conservatives main Tain their filibuster leaves Sauve physically tired but not emotionally tense. Richard Gwyn because As she says i m the kind of person who says to herself that i la do my absolute Best but that s All i can do and if it s not Good enough then i Don t get upset about one of the unexpected Side benefits of the conservative filibuster against the constitutional package has been Sauve s emergence As a speaker in her own right. Last week Sauve demonstrated her new found and hard won authority. She told conservative maps to limit to just five minutes each of the questions of privilege they have used to prevent the government from re starting the debate on its constitutional resolve. Yukon my Eric Nielsen who has orchestrated the filibuster protested Sauve s ruling. But he accepted it and in what was the moment of truth for Sauve he did so without suspicion or rancor in his voice. When Trudeau after his election Vic tory a year ago handed Sauve the speaker ship he handed her the Shor test Straw he could find. Sauve had not asked for the Post. Nothing in her past through seven years As a highly parti san but relatively undistinguished min ister suggested she was qualified for it. For instance unlike All her predecessors she was not a lawyer relations Between Trudeau and Sauve always have been uneasy. She comes from the same privileged outre Mont background As he and in Cabinet meetings committed the heresy of talk ing Back to him. When Trudeau retired from the Liberal leadership in 1979 she was unwise enough to say out loud she thought he had made the right Choice. Lastly and the truly unforgivable heresy she was always a fan of John Turner. Until recently Sauve s relations with her fellow maps were Little better. In the clubby atmosphere of parliament Hill at which she had arrived easily via a Safe Liberal Quebec seat was something of a loner straightforward and hard working but aloof. Once speaker Sauve had to spend her first weeks studying photographs of maps so she could recognize them when they jumped up in the commons. She had to spend even longer studying the commons rules to which until a year ago she had Given As Little attention virtually none that is As did ail of Trudeau s ministers with the conspicuous exception of Allan Maceachen. Yes i had to learn the Sauve says now. But it s my Job and i be applied myself to it and i think i be Learned them. It s a Strain making All those snap ruling s on questions of privilege and of making sure your rulings Are consistent. But i be become pretty confident i know what s right and that i could do nothing differently from the Way i m doing a senior former commons official agrees with Sauve s self assessment. The most even a very Well established speaker can do is to crowd maps a he says. But Sauve has to hear out each question of privilege because even after a dozen frivolous ones the next one May be genuine a my complaining about a wiretap put in his office the liberals naturally see things differently. In the corridor they com Plain that Sauve is being too lax. In the commons Trudeau has accused the conservatives of hijacking Parlia in fact the conservatives have in vented their own form of opposition closure. By applying it so ruthlessly they have lost the right to complain when the government exercises its own Well established form of closure to end the constitutional debate Assum ing it Ever gets the Chance to do this. The political rights and wrongs of filibuster and of closure will be decided eventually by Public opinion. In the meantime Sauve has won her own crucial Victory she has won the re Spect and As is even harder to attain the acceptance of her fellow maps. Speaker Jeanne Sauve does any other City have its own Herd of Deer there Are not Many places in the settled world that one can so easily get a glimpse of a White tailed Deer As in Southern Manitoba. It May be Only a momentary sight of a Deer motionless in a Clearing or bounding across a Highway a vision of exquisite Grace and Beauty. The White tailed Deer is also known As a jumper for it can leap As High As three metres and More than nine metres horizontally seeming to Glide through the air. It is called the White tailed Deer because of its flashing Tail used to signal danger to its mates. Winnipeg has a most unusual love affair with the Deer. Not far from the heart of the City in 700-acre Assiniboine Forest and surrounding Bush is a Herd of about 150 Deer. Winnipeg is the Only City in Canada perhaps in the world harbouring a wild Herd of Deer within its boundaries. Winnipeg known As the City of the Rivers can also claim to be the City of the Deer. Herb Goulden provincial Deer Man Ager has written a Fine account of Manitoba s White tailed Deer Handso Mely illustrated by Jim Carson and available free from the department of natural resources. White tailed Deer is no. 1 on the list of big game animals in terms of numbers and popularity. The Deer originated in the southwestern United states and moved North in the late 1800s. By the Val Werier Early 1950s there were probably More than Here says or. Goulden. Loss of habitat and heavy Hunting Cut the Herd to about in 1974. The Hunting season was closed for three years and now the Herd is estimated at about give or take 20 per cent. The Deer in a sense love people places. They adapt to settled areas explains or. Goulden. In the develop ment of farming in Southern Manitoba at the turn of the Century Ideal conditions materialized for the Deer in the control of Prairie fires and allowing Trees and shrubs to grow on former Grassland. The Herd in Winnipeg Speaks for the adaptability of the species. Deer Are resourceful. Like cattle they have a four chambered stomach allowing them to Stoke up during the Day and Retreat to safer surroundings to bed Down and Chew their cud at night. Newborn fawns have no scent to make it difficult for predators. Does remain at a distance to avoid attracting Atten Tion to their Young. Says or. Goulden because of this people sometimes find Young animals and assume they Are orphaned. It is inhuman and illegal to handle fawns in such resourceful and Graceful As the Deer May be like All wildlife they Are under constant stress. They face Many Haz Ards. In Good condition most adult does give birth to twins occasionally trip lets. The mortality rate is High 20 to 50 per cent of fawns die shortly after birth due to poor nutrition during their mothers pregnancy and bad weather conditions at birth. The survivors face the Rigours of everyday life including predation by dogs coyotes Timber wolves and bears accidents of All kinds the search for food pest problems disease and at the age of six months Deer be come the victims of sports Hunters and Winter. A moderate average Winter will claim 15 per cent of the Herd. Under natural conditions few live beyond six years. At four they Are in the prime of life. Deer have to feed sufficiently in the fall to survive the Winter when it is More difficult to obtain food. An ice crust formed by freezing rain or a midwinter thaw is bad news for the Ucer. This crust seals off food supplies making travel difficult for Deer and easy for predators. The ice also cuts the Deer s legs. In Winter any extra de mands on its Energy Supply will de crease its chances of survival. For example they require extra Energy when chased by dogs or frightened by irresponsible a mature Deer eats about twigs daily the tip with the they Are vegetarians browsing on stems leaves fruit buds bark. In Winter nature helps the Deer by slowing their motors conserving Energy and reducing their consumption of food. In farm lands Deer go after crops like Alfalfa and Green fall Rye. Farmers Are compensated for crop losses by the prov Ince. Doonesbury Deer forage mainly on Farmers prop erty because it so happens to be the Best habitat in Southwest Manitoba where most of this land is in private hands. Hunters must ask permission to shoot on their land and most do. About licensed Hunters Are out in the Deer seasons and bag about to Deer. So about one out of every two Hunters gets a Deer a High score in North America. That is not my cup of Lea. I would rather see them alive enjoying an occasional glimpse of these Graceful creatures in the Woods As they pause for a moment their White tails flashing at the approach of strangers. As or. Goulden says it requires As much skill to stalk a Deer for photos or for Obser vation As it does to shoot the animal. The Deer Herd will decline because of the Advance of agriculture and the disappearance of their habitat. Richard Goulden provincial director of wildlife a brother of Herb Goulden who wrote the Story on the Deer says there Are thoughts of maintaining the habitat by offering tax reductions to Farmers for land not under cultivation. Another idea is to improve the habitat on Crown land. The poor Deer do not have an easy life however idyllic their presence in the Forest. We should help them survive instead of regarding them As game. Nam Keyou id 0e Okay right. Trust you ofcouk5e, you Trust i Trust me by team 6000. I ;