Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - June 19, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free press. Friday june 7 focus iraqi raid reduces ils. Diplomatic flexibility the following article was written specially for the Washington Post by or. Schlesinger who served As chairman of the atomic Energy commission director Central intelligence Agency and Secretary of defence in the Republican administration of Richard Nixon. By James Schlesinger Washington Post Washington the Middle East provides combustible matter for conflagration Akin to the Balkans prior to the first world War has now become almost a cliche. Two distinctive elements make it impossible to treat conditions in the Middle East with the indifference normally accorded to cliches. First unlike the situation in the bal kans in the pre first world War period which prospectively involved Only the prestige of the contending great the vital interests of the West indeed the entire free world Are wholly engaged in continuing Access to the Energy resources of the persian Gulf. Second the existence and prospective further spread of nuclear weapons which might be employed in a Middle East conflagration geometrically add to the inherent danger of this Tinderbox. The Laid on the Osiurak research reactor near Baghdad significantly complicates the politics of the Middle East and reduces diplomatic manoeuvre room especially for american diplomacy. Aside from the enhancement of Menachem begin s electoral pros purely Domestic matter the principal beneficiaries of this development Are the soviet Union and to a lesser extent the Khomeini regime in Iran which May draw satisfaction from the humiliation of iraqi president Saddam Hussein. Even the advertised goal sharply to circumscribe the spread of nuclear capabilities is for reasons i will get to in a moment essentially transitory and probably pal try. Israel undermined on balance the decision to strike has probably augmented the forces under mining Israel s International position. Begin has not merely demonstrated his for his neighbors with whom Israel must ultimately co exist and for International opinion in general he has placed his treaty partner egyptian president Anwar Sadat in a most awk Ward position and has apparently been indifferent to the substantial embarrassment of Israel s protector the United states. As a Small state unlike say the soviet Israel s ultimate survival cannot rest on a flagrant disregard for what Thomas Jefferson called a decent respect for the opinion of Mankind. The additional costs associated with the raid regrettably May be quickly listed the aborting of the peace pro Cess or what was left of additional re entry Points for the soviet Union into the weakening of Arab moderates and the Coalescence of the Arab world on More Radical lines the reinforcement of european distrust of America s policies and role in the Middle East and a strengthening of Europe s desire to strike out on its and the premature forcing of the United states to a decision Point effect the unmasking of american Diplo Macy. Moreover like the simultaneous crises in Hungary and at Suez in 1956, this episode May dilute the attention focused on Eastern Europe and provide the soviets with cover for whatever mischief they May embark on in Poland. To All this begin appears sublimely indifferent. This catalytic event has also under scored the substantial void in american foreign policy. This May turn out to be beneficial since the situation is presumably curable. Nonetheless aside from latin America the Reagan administration in five months has done remarkably Little in establishing the specifics of goals and instruments which Are the substance of foreign policy. Lack of Clear policy elsewhere the specifics Are in formed or at Best tenuous. Opposition to soviet activism or International terrorism May be welcomed but that represents a mood or an inclination rather than Concrete policy better revealed by expanding Grain anti communist rhetoric is no substitute for Well defined policy. Least of All what Ever its value As copy for the washing ton fun and games department does the recent phenomenon of lets All pummel the Secretary of state to teach generals requisite humility constitute foreign policy the attack at Baghdad thus forces the administration inclined to Breeze along on an image of Domestic Good will and inter National toughness to focus on the specifics of foreign policy notably in the Middle East and on nuclear proliferation. To this Point the administration s approach in the Middle East has been to focus on the soviet threat and to seek a strategic consensus presumably ending in co operative action of the states of the Region in improving the military deterrent to soviet intervention. While such an outcome would be Israel s use of american supplied weapons in a manner dubious under american Law requires in logic a far higher priority for anti proliferation policies than the administration has exhibited to Date. Sen. Alan Cranston and others May quite consistently in View of their Long term stress on pre venting the spread of nuclear weapons find the israeli strike justifiable. So could the Carter administration with its Well advertised if ineffective poli cies to prevent proliferation. But to Date the Reagan administration has been indifferent or fatalistic about the spread of nuclear weapons perhaps most dramatically so in terms of its evolving support and military Assis Tance for Pakistan. Having immediately condemned the attack the administration will find it doubly hard subsequently to condone it on the basis of non proliferation objectives to which it so far has been rather indifferent. If the arms flow to Israel continues in the face of the proprieties of american Law the distrust of Ameri can motives and of its intended role As honest broker in resolving Arab israeli differences will be significantly height ened. Limited Power since Israel s own Power is quite limited its unilateral Effort to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons in the Region will prove at Best transient. An Issue on which the superpowers agree though even they Are limited in their ability to grapple with the problem is certainly beyond Israel s very limited abilities. Israel s action May by dramatizing the Issue strengthen Arab determination to acquire nuclear weapons. Perhaps More significant it should be recalled that the initial move toward the islamic bomb and the soliciting of support for that venture was by thought through though brilliantly executed strike is that it could once again focus International attention on the problem of proliferation. Yet it will do so in a badly deteriorated International climate. The Middle East and Poland pose two prospective crises for the United states in the next few weeks with the Secre tary of state abroad in China. It should provide a serious test of the administration s new crisis management machinery. Highly satisfying to Many of us it is the Pakistan s All Bhutto in the Middle height of american ethnocentrism to assume that the states of the Region will abandon their immediate concerns and embrace our own. For both Israel and its Arab neigh Bors worry about the other s intentions and actions constitutes a Clear and present danger which they will scarcely forget simply to accommodate our concern regarding the longer term though lower probability threat to the Region posed by the soviet Union. Vain Hope any Hope that regional attention could be focused northward in the absence of a simultaneous and effective grappling with the internal tensions of the Region must now be abandoned. The raid in Short Means the end for that particular Drift in american policy preferences for it has sharpened the apprehensions about the unresolved internal conflicts while raising increased doubts about the effectiveness of the american role in the Region. With regard to these regional ten Sions the United states might have preferred to temp Orize. It can do so no longer. The raid makes these tensions Central and underscores . Inability to fulfil its expected role of ensuring israeli restraint. The United states will now be forced to choose. On the one hand we May tacitly condone the raid by maintaining arms shipments to Israel. The inevitable consequence will be a further breach Between the United states and much of the Arab world. On the other hand a cessation of arms shipments will automatically bring into question the depth of the american commitment to Israel s Security. Forc ing this Choice on the United states was hardly in Israel s interests. To condone the attack including 1970s. And despite begin s provocative rhetoric Pakistan lies beyond the reach of israeli War planes and is moreover under american Protection. To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons in the Region Israel s own Power is far too limited. The Best that might be hoped for from Israel s badly soviets and Iran May Benefit from Menachem begin s humiliation of Iraq s Saddam Hussein. Asian stability is rapidly declining by David Vanpraagh special to the free press Hong Kong the Reagan administration a first direct approach to China and Southeast. Asia coincides with rising temperatures in the re Gion. Many asians . Diplomats on the spot Are anxious to see whether a policy emerges from Secretary of state Alexander Haig s visit to peking followed by discussions in Manila with foreign ministers of the association of Southeast asian nations Indonesia Malaysia the Philippines Singapore and Well placed China watchers in Hong Kong and senior officials in Singapore a Bell wether for Southeast Asia express concern privately that . Policy makers Are not fully aware of potential conflicts and May not be willing to make the commitment to asian Security needed to head them off. Military clashes have broken out again on the China Vietnam Border after a Long Lull. For the first time Vietnam has threatened to invade Thailand if the thai government forces cambodian refugees to return to their shattered Homeland. Chinese prime minister Zhao Ziyang returned to peking in time for Haig s visit after warning in Pakistan Nepal and Bangladesh against Heg Monist aggression and this was an unmistakable reference to India which like Vietnam is tied economic ally and militarily to the soviet Union. China s foreign minister will soon travel to new Delhi. India s foreign minis Ter has offered a new Friendly relation ship to Pakistan. But pakistani diplomats charge that prime minister Indira Gandhi s government is trying to destabilize the regime of general Mohammed Ziaul Haq threatened by soviet troops in Afghanistan. Nepal s leaders express fear of an Indian take Over like that of neighbouring Sikkim. Zhao s visit to Dacca was accompanied by an official anti Indian Campaign in the Wake of president Ziaur Rahman s assassination. Increasingly Well informed asians and Western As Well As communist diplomats Point out links Between events in different parts of Asia. For example Israel s bombing of Iraq s nuclear reactor is seen As a precedent for India or Pakistan possibly attempt ing to take out the other s nuclear capability. Despite China s loud rhetoric against the soviets the vietnamese and by implication the indians there is wide agreement that peking is hardly in a position to do much in South Asia or even in Southeast Asia against he the chinese have built roads from Central Asia into Pakistan and Nepal that can take military traffic. They were expected to remind Haig that chinese forces Are holding Down soviet divisions on the Long sine soviet Bor Der and vietnamese divisions on the tense sino vietnamese Border. However China s Road and rail net work is too underdeveloped to support Domestic economic plans let alone a major military expedition to South Asia. Military analysts concur that another chinese punitive expedition against Vietnam like that in february 1979 after Hanoi s takeover of cambo Dia would meet with a bad bloody nose because now those vietnamese Divi Sions Are made up of Well equipped veterans. China s economic and military weak Ness combined with what is expected to be a continuing struggle for political Power when the party Cen trial committee meets in peking soon after Haig s visit is regarded As one ingredient in a possible disaster for non communist Southeast Asia. Another ingredient would be the Rea Gan administration s providing Mili tary hardware or technology to China to the extent that Asean members especially Indonesia and Malaysia would feel their fears of chinese aggression would be realized sooner rather than later. While Haig will hear those fears expressed by Asean members a greater Nightmare is that . Assistance May encourage China to go to the Aid of Thailand if the vietnamese carry out their threat of invasion but that Chi Nese forces will be Defeated. That would be the end of Asean s China card and leave the United states As the Only Uncertain card left to play. Washington in Short must take account not Only of China and Taiwan in framing a policy for the Region but also boiling pots in South and Southeast Asia plus Japan the most important . Partner in Asia which Haig will not visit canadians do want to help the world s poor the last thing canadians need these Days is a lecture from their Playboy prime minister on their responsibilities to the poor in the world. Canadians Are Well aware of these responsibilities and they want to help the poor of the world but they Are Likely to have different ideas from Pierre Elliott tru Deau on How Best to do it. The prime minister in the manner of Many wealthy socialist thinkers apparently wants to redistribute what is left of Canada s wealth so that we can get that warm feeling that comes into the hearts of All who do Good. But when Pierre Trudeau takes time off from his personal exotic and expensive holidays to chide canadians about being too Rich while the world is too poor he will generate about the same enthusiasm ased Schreyer s Sugges Tion that no matter what an individual s responsibility in an organization his pay should not exceed two and one half times that of the lowest paid worker in that organization. Both statements Are typical of the desire on the part of people who Are individually insulated from the consequences of their political actions to get others who May be hurting under those consequences to agree to continued pain on the grounds that it is for the general Public Good. Schreyer disco Vered that Manitoban were not falling Over themselves to join his swedish Fred Cleverley Model socialist state. Trudeau will Dis cover that few agree with his method of helping the third world. Trudeau thinks canadians should pull in the belts that Are already tightened by his inflationary policies and at the same time takes a sideways kick at Ronald Reagan for his defence spending. He does not mention that while Reagan is spending for defence his policies have done a better Job of wrestling american inflation to the ground than Trudeau is doing in this country. He never mentions that if american defences Are let slide then the Hopes of the Western world spokes men such As Trudeau of helping the world s poor will be gone with the wind. There Are some canadians who think that the poor of the world would be helped Only briefly and in a limited Way by such a shift of economic responsibilities. These people think that the Best Way of helping the poor of the world is by making Canada and the other developed countries As Prosper Ous As possible so prosperous in fact that the Only Way they will be Able to increase their Prosperity is by having it spill Over into the undeveloped coun tries helped along of course by the determination that it should happen. But this is not Likely to be served up by the Trudeau government. It will attempt to readjust the thinking of the world not so much because such a readjustment will work but because it is a lofty goal. Much More lofty to be sure than sitting Down to solve Canada s Energy crisis to achieve Energy self sufficiency. Much More lofty than doing something to get the value of our Dollar up or to bring Down our interest rates. The prime minister cannot escape the fact that he is wealthy and that High interest rates Benefit the wealthy. Good economic policies Bene fit canadians generally and if these canadians can reap enough benefits to create in individual minds the image of Success then the Long term goal of substantial Aid to the world s poor will be much easier to achieve. Canadians would accept sound eco nomic policies More gracefully than they Are Likely to accept a lecture on their own affluence delivered by a Man who has set something of a prime ministerial record for personal extravagances and who drives a 1959 Mer cedes Benz while criticizing canadians who aggravate the Energy crisis by driving Gas guzzling sports cars. This of course is the basis of the free Market Economy that people like tru Deau seem to detest because of its obvious warts. What the prime min ister is missing is that one Basic characteristic of free markets or of capital ism if we Are to use that despised word is that it functions Best by increasing the Standard of living of people at the Bottom end of the economic Pyramid. There Are simply not enough wealthy people in the world to create the markets necessary for capitalism to be effective. Anyone who needs an exam ple of the influence of these markets need think Back Only to color television. There was hardly a Hiccup in time Between the Day when color television sets first became available in North America and when they were so plentiful that nearly everyone owned color. If capitalism benefited Only the wealthy then color television would have been the preserve of the wealthy for a generation or so before it became commonplace. But it was available to nearly everyone because the capitalistic society that produced it needed these people to create the Market that guaranteed Success. It May be a bit Odd to talk about color television when the problem is starving people. But the Way to get the product Ive capacity of the West to help the underdeveloped nations is not to strip the Peoples of the West of some of their wealth and redistribute it. The Way to help is to increase the productive capacity so that it spills Over to Benefit the underdeveloped nations. The problem will not be solved by lectures delivered Between dips in a private swimming Pool. If we get Only lectures and nothing else we will not be Able to help the poor we will be the poor. Doonesbury a wow Povie such a ;