Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - June 25, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Focus Ain Ottawa when governments pay out Money for whatever reason there Are recipients who argue it is not enough. On the other Side there Are taxpayers who believe it is too much. Such is the Case with million being paid to Canadian Grain producers As compensation for effects of the Par tial embargo on Grain sales to the soviet Union in 1980. The embargo was announced Jan uary by . President Jimmy Carter in response to the soviet inva Sion of Afghanistan. Canada agreed to support the . Action to the extent that exports to the .s.r. Would not be permitted to exceed Normal and traditional a volume later identified at 3.8 million tonnes. At the same time the Clark govern ment promised to compensate Canad an Farmers for financial losses result ing from the embargo a commitment later adopted by the Trudeau administration and repeated frequently Over the past year. The first important Point is that the embargo did not reduce Canadian sales to the soviet Union by one Kernel. Canada s transportation system was taxed to capacity in achieving record exports that year. Canada could not possibly have moved any More Grain to Russia embargo or no embargo. Tremendous pressure in fact Canadian producers were probably beneficiaries of the exer Cise in that until the embargo was announced there was tremendous pressure on the great lakes Grain Fleet. . Exporters were paying Premium prices for space which had to be matched by the Canadian wheat Board. But when president Carter announced the suspension of exports of 13 million tonnes of Corn and four million tonnes of wheat which were destined for the .s.r., space suddenly be came available for Spring shipments on the lakes and the Premium for space disappeared. That hidden Benefit is not mentioned in the criteria used by the government in determining the amount of embargo compensation to producers. Peter Thomson Ottawa editor wheat Board minister Hazen argue made the Point while announcing the compensation payment that Canada s embargo actions did not result in a decline in Canadian Grain there is no question however that Canadian producers were affected by declining world wide Grain prices. And part of the decline can be attributed to the embargo. The difficulty the government has had is in determining How much effect the embargo had on prices and for which grains. The embargo affected prices in two ways. First there is the actual reduction in soviet imports which left greater Grain supplies overhanging the Market and second there was the expectation of the embargo s effect on soviet imports and thus the expectation of the embargo s effect on prices. Great expectations evidence contained in the Back ground paper on the compensation pay ments and from other sources suggests that expectations had a greater effect than did actual reduced soviet imports. The background paper states that soviet imports were not reduced by anything like the 17 million tonnes mentioned by president Carter. Some countries such As Argentina took advantage of the embargo and increased exports to the .s.r., replacing some of the embargoed . Shipments. Based on recent . Department of agriculture figures an estimate of reduced shipments to the .s.r. Of 6.8 million tonnes 2.27 of wheat and 4.53 of Corn can be obtained. Practically every other Grain Trade authority estimates that soviet imports were reduced by a lesser amount. One might suspect the . Figures on the grounds that there is an Effort to make the embargo appear More effective than it actually was. The department of agriculture Back ground paper acknowledges that the 6.8 million tonne figure might be High. However it was Felt that prices responded to information which was available to the Market at the time and that the 6.8 million tonne estimate was therefore the appropriate one to there were other factors besides the embargo affecting Grain prices in the Early months of 1980. Interest rates were High and rising trend that tends to depress Grain prices because it makes it too costly to carry Large inventories. On the other hand the . Introduced several programs that were de signed to offset the negative effects of the embargo on Grain prices including placing additional Grain in govern ment supported storage programs. It is recognized however that Grain placed in storage continues to overhang the Market. Thus the positive effect on prices resulting from storage programs is not As great As would be the effect on prices had the Grain been exported and sold. The compensation payments take that into account. After weighing As Many factors As possible As realistically As possible the government payment has been calculated at per tonne of wheat about 16 cents a per tonne for Barley about 11 cents a per tonne for Corn about Fiu Giumo. Me payments make 50.0 per tonne North american defence needs upgrading by John Best special to the free press Ottawa Canadian and american defence planners and their political Bosses will soon have to make some crucial decisions affecting North american defence for the remainder of this Century. The key question is whether to spend several Hundred million dollars updating the Distant Early warning Dew line of radar stations which runs across Northern Canada Alaska and Green land. Another is whether to spend a Hundred million or so on the pin tree radar line further South. Both lines Date from the 1950s and Are starting to show their age though de Fence officials insist they still can do the Job for which they were intended warn of a soviet bomber attack on North America. One of the arguments advanced in favor of modernizing the 21 Canadian and 13 . Stations on the Dew line and the 24 installations on the All Canada pin tree line is that the capital Cost would be largely offset Over time by reduced maintenance costs that new technology would permit. Nobody seems to know just what the capital costs would be but estimates for the Dew line alone Range from million to close to billion. The project would involve replacing vacuum tube radars by solid state types and a com plete overhaul of the communications part. Cost sharing arrangements have not been worked out but Canada May have to pay part of the Cost of improving both surveillance networks. Until now the americans have shouldered the entire Cost of the Dew. Line though Canada has contributed to pin tree. The decision on whether to proceed with modernization will be taken by the Canadian and . Governments prob ably with a says col. . Buskard director of air plans at de Fence Headquarters Here. Meanwhile officials in both washing ton and Ottawa offer soothing Assur ances about the soundness of the pres ent system even while others Call attention to the need for renewal. The . Comptroller general Milton Socolar recently warned of deficiencies in the Early warning system maintained by Norad the Canada . North american aerospace de Fence command. The umbrella Norad agreement was renewed by the two governments last month for a further five years. The Norad situation is very close to Socolar told a House of representatives sub committee in Washington. It seems Clear to us that the current system is not sufficiently reliable and therefore needs to be significantly upgraded indeed virtually however the Norad commander . James Hartinger insisted at the same meeting that the present systems Are still effective. Similarly col. . Broughton the Canadian defence department s director of Continental policy says the pres ent warning networks though old and even obsolescent Are still capable of doing a Job. But he adds they Are also expensive systems to Norad s electronic warning system which is involved in missile detection As Well As bomber warning and anti bomber defence suffered a Black Eye last year and the year before when on three occasions it sounded false alarms of soviet missile attacks on North America. Hartinger told the House panel that the integrity of the system has since been improved. Nevertheless a Cana Dian parliamentary committee which examined this question last fall found both the Dew and pin tree lines deficient in their Range and in their capacity to detect Low flying aircraft. The warning system was established at a time when the manned bomber was the principal threat to North America the bomber has Long since been eclipsed by the intercontinental Ballis tic missile but it must still be defended against. The emphasis has switched but it is difficult to close out the air defence Side of the col. Buskard said in an interview. That would allow an enemy an option bomber attack which would quickly become a primary about six per cent of soviet intercontinental weapons delivery vehicles Are manned bombers while 38 per cent Are submarine launched ballistic missiles slams and 56 per cent icbms. Defence planners Are especially concerned about Low flying planes that can penetrate established warning net works without being detected and the growing capacity of Long Range soviet bombers to launch cruise missiles without themselves going anywhere near their intended targets. To counter these threats the . Has developed the airborne warning and control system based on jets with a radar dish on top and stuffed with electronic monitoring gear. These sentinels of the sky can see across vast distances and also have a look Down function that allows them to detect invading aircraft hugging the landscape. A tiny handful of canadians about seven servicemen Are currently attached to the Azacs operation and the planes sometimes overfly Canadian territory in carrying out their surveil Lance missions. Another response is the Over the horizon Back scatter radar now coming into service. This sys tem bounces signals off the ionosphere to see what is going on on the other Side of the horizon and thus overcomes the limitations of conventional line of sight radars. A decision on whether to introduce oth a into Continental defence is expected this fall. One site could be located in Canada. It is More Likely to be on the Atlantic or Pacific coast than in the North because auroral disturbances play havoc with the ionosphere in the North. Azacs and oth a will help keep Norad s warning system up to Date pending the perfection of a Blanket spy in the sky space satellite detection system expected to be introduced around 1995. Azacs however also has a control function. In the event of a bomber attack on North America it would help to guide interceptors including the Cf-18a now being produced for the Canadian air Force into action against invaders. Although Ottawa has now decided on Levels of compensation the actual Cost of the embargo of Grain sales to the soviet Union is open to debate. Ironically the greatest beneficiary of the whole Deal May have been Moscow. 14 cents a and per tonne for Oats about 7.5 cents per Farmers should have no complaint about those figures. Where there is room to complain is that the payments do not extend to oilseed. There is a substitution Factor Between Grain and oilseed such As rapeseed and soybeans. Prices of grains and oilseed almost always move in sympathy. Therefore if the embargo affected Corn and Barley and Oats prices it also affected rape and soybean prices but no compensation is contemplated on these. Two pronged reason one suspects the reason is both Finan Cial and political. The government obviously has to Cut off payments at some Point. And be cause oilseed do not fall under the Canadian wheat Board where senator argue would like to have them one suspects he did not fight All that hard for oilseed producers. Another Point already made by opposition critic Bill Mcknight is that the value of the payment has been greatly eroded by inflation since the period Early in 1980 that the compensation payment is supposed to cover. A lot of Farmers pressed by High interest rates would have liked to have the Money in their hands or accruing to their accounts in the wheat Board a year ago when it was Worth 12 per cent More than it is now. And one final Point is that if the embargo had very Little effect on soviet Grain imports which is the Case and if it served to depress prices which it did then the biggest beneficiary of the embargo was obviously the soviet Union. Wolseley by election situation is complicated with the official , with the official acknowledgement that the constituency of Wolseley lacks a legislative representative the guess ing has intensified about the timing of the next general election. According to various rumours that election will be held some time Between september october 1981 and May june 1982, and depending on the Date selected by the Premier the Wolseley by election will or will not occur. The government is not legally required to hold an election until Early october 1982, the end of its fifth year. That however is Only the Legal Situa Tion and for political reasons is not Wise. The last time a provincial govern ment waited until almost the final moment was in 1958 with the Liberal administration headed by Douglas Campbell. Perhaps he realized his group would not be re elected. As it turned out a minority conservative government came to Power. Similarly the last nip government unsure of its strength delayed calling the election until several months into its fifth year in 1977, and lost soundly to Hie conservatives. In most cases the four year term has been the optimum and working on that basis and political logic the tory government should go to the electorate by october this year. If the writs Are issued in the fall there would be relatively few problems under the dome Arlene Billi Rikoff for the people in Wolseley. Although they do not have their own representative to Call with local problems they have an nip office set up several months ago and tory la Len Domi no who wants to carry the party ban Ner in Wolseley in the next election and intends to be available to future constituents. That is the simple scenario. Unfortunately there is also the possibility of a More complicated scenario which takes into account Federal government action and Industrial decisions about development within Manitoba. Either is capable of delaying the calling of the provincial election. There appears to be a delay with the supreme court s consideration of the Constitution Issue thus thwarting the Federal plan to Complete the matter by july 1. With the parliamentary recess just around the Corner it was possible the final word on the Constitution would not be known until later this summer or even the fall. That would not appear to have too much relevance to a Manitoba election but Sterling Lyon has made Points on the Issue and presumably wants to make a few More during the election Campaign. If the matter is still in the air this fall he might wait. On the Industrial front the tories have been making a lot of noise about Meg projects such As the aluminium smelting Plant and want to present some tangible proof of their Progress to the Public. However the worsening Market May delay the construction of that smelter which May also serve As a delay for the election. If the government decides to wait for a More opportune time the pressure would grow for a by election. According to Law no vacancy in the representation of an electoral division shall re main unfilled for More than one year. With the supreme court refusing to hear Bob Wilson s Appeal on june 15 and his seat declared vacant the by election must be held by june 15 1982. While it is not probable the govern ment May wait until the last moment before calling the by election and then May be compelled to interrupt it in order to have a general election. Given that situation it would make More sense to let the people of Wolseley vote As soon As possible. Those voters have had a string of bad Luck for the past 15 years. The last la who sat for any length of time was Duff Roblin who resigned in june 1968, As he sought the National tory leadership. He was replaced by tory Leonard Claydon in a by election in february 1969. Claydon was re elected in the general election of june 1969, but died in de Cember 1971. The nip waited almost six months before calling a by election in june 1972, when Liberal Leader Izzy Asper was elected. He barely squeaked through in the next election of june 1973, and after 18 More months realized this was not his cup of Tea. Therefore he moved on to bigger and better things and the Wolseley seat was vacant once More. The next by election was called quickly and Bob Wilson won the seat in june 1975 and was re elected in 1977. However in late 1979, he was charged with conspiracy to import and traffic in marijuana. Since Early this year he has been an la in name but not in salary and is currently serving a seven year sentence. All in All the residents of Wolseley have not done too Well and should not be left without a voice in the legislature when the next session begins. If the government decides to delay the Gener Al election until next Spring the Bye Lection should be held quickly. Besides it might serve As a rehearsal and indicate the government s prospects for the next election. Sometimes those indications Are mis leading. In 1969, the tories confident after winning three out of four Bielec tons earlier in the year called the election in june. When the dust cleared they had become the opposition. That too is always a possibility. With All those possibilities it May make sense to Call the election As soon As possible and get it Over. Or As Len Domino Don t want to do it doonesbury Pip m review me Al Salvador. In Nipa before Nivas pub Shep and 6rammar. Itfu5iep tub Ukita implicitly and had no s Fofe Takhing he me Jjck Topis me believed the writ Metr pics that Masbitz soviet my chief is afoot or Sunug will be withdraw Iitto see Why they them then 5houi.p have ;