Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - September 21, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free september 1981 7 my focus my is not needed minuteman vulnerability argument is based on overestimating the soviet missile threat president Ronald Reagan has been struggling with a decision on How to base the costly my missile experimental in this Jerome president emeritus of the Massachusetts Institute of technology and former science adviser to president John Kennedy challenges some of the technical assumptions of those who favor deployment of the by Jerome Wisner Ronald Reagan is having a hard time choosing among the various models and makes of the my he has been like the typical car buyer he is finding each Model too expensive for his he seems to be beginning to suspect that none of models will deliver what they prom the Standard Model with its drag strips and shelters designed to allow the United states to play a giant Shell game with the soviet has Many technical problems and a violent opposition to it from proposed neighbors in military analysts feel the airborne and submarine versions have even greater technical if president Reagan does select the Standard Model designed by the Carter he can expect to have a great Deal of trouble convincing Twe country that it is Worth the damage to Large areas of the United states and the there is an attractive though buy this May be a difficult Choice for the president since his election speeches made much of the need to close the window of vulnerability that his de Fence advisers had convinced him would exist in a few years unless he promptly chose the my missile As a supplement to the allegedly vulnerable minuteman missile vulnerability scam for several americans have been told Over and Over again by a coalition of a government officials and industrialists calling itself the commit tee on the present danger that they were approaching a window of Vulner ability in about it would be a window of Opportunity for the soviet leaders with a combination of their Superior ballistic missile Force and Large land armies in they could dominate the politically if militarily if the Centrepiece of this scenario is the so Viet capacity to destroy the minuteman Force of land president Reagan and his advisers should carefully examine the emerging evidence that the minuteman is not nearly As vulnerable to attack As al More even if it the retaliatory forces would end up relatively stronger than those of the soviet Union after a soviet attack on the in simple the window of vulnerability is a Gross deception perpetrated on the president and the american not Only is there no window of vulnerability in the but if there the my missile system would not be the Way to close i have been following the my examining and analysing its since its it has become hard for me to understand Why it has any supporters at i can Only conclude that its advocates have bought the window although i cannot understand the scenario assumes the Complete destruction of the minuteman with the attendant millions of deaths that would it then projects the soviets As having so great a nuclear superiority that whoever is president at the time could be bluffed out of Reta in other the presidents advisers Are worrying about a Back Bone analysis of the situation reveals Sev eral interesting facts it is unlikely that the soviet Union will be Able to eliminate a major Frac Tion of the minuteman even if they could eliminate All the minuteman it would make no difference after a soviet attack of the kind the United states would emerge with a relatively larger strategic warhead stockpile than because the so Viet Union would expend More War Heads than it would the land based my in the designs i have is very vulnerable to a soviet attack in under cer Tain circumstances it would be considerably More vulnerable than the minuteman Force it is designed to much of the my debate is based on estimates of the size of the arsenals available to each Side in the years i am forced to join in this numbers game to show How unreal the idea of a window of vulnerability yet in doing i am very uncomfortable because the numerical differences involved really amount to who has the greatest potential for i believe that 100 nuclear neatly would effectively de stroy either the United states or the soviet in these the debate is Over who will have the most thousands the largest bang in my the committee on the present Dan Ger estimates that by the United states will have warheads in its strategic compared to the soviet unions with the soviet unions larger warheads having roughly twice the equivalent megaton age of the United a study prepared for the Congress predicts a somewhat greater numerical with War Heads having Megatons of equivalent while the soviet Union is predicted to have warheads with equivalent three Way spread it should be noted that 85 per cent of the soviet Force is on land based mis Siles compared to Only 25 per cent of the which has the remainder of its strategic Force on strategic air command jets and in and the United states has a Large number of warheads in Europe and on aircraft carriers that could be used against the soviet Union As part of a retaliatory our British and French allies have several Hundred warheads in their Independent Strate Gic forces that could be used against the soviet this is the Force that the soviet Union faces and must be Able to neutralize by military and psychological Means if a window of vulnerability is to the soviet strategic Force is much More vulnerable to attack than that of the United states and its the land based portion of americas missile Force is approximately warheads on throwing in some control they offer if they could the remaining Force discounting tac tical theater weapons would have be tween and weapons for a retaliatory depending on whether you believe the committee for the present danger or the congressional budget for the soviets to wipe out the missile military analysts they would have to launch two War Heads against each if they thus expended nuclear weapons on such an they would be left in a relatively weaker position than that they would use up More War Heads than they would after having fewer warheads than the United states to begin these results Are based on the As sumption that a soviet attack could Ronald Reagan is being advised to base 10warhead missile on on b52s or in shallow Ocean eliminate the minuteman if the attack destroyed Only half of the targeted the would gain an advantage of approximately War there Are Many reasons Why no one can predict the results of such a massive attack with calculations of this kind depend on Many factors not Well known to and probably not Well known to the soviets we do not know the accuracy and reliability of the soviet missile War head or the effectiveness with which the soviet military could coordinate and carry out the unrehearsed and unpriced entry Large attack with its need for Ballet like Tim ing to be no russian these having no an Are highly dependent on judg the committee on the present danger uses very optimistic performance estimates for soviet weapons and predicts that a soviet attack would destroy 95 per cent of the minuteman such As the congressional budget office and several of my col leagues Here at Mit who specialize in military get much lower Levels of they base their calculations on what they know about weapon noting especially the complexity of the uncertainty introduced by the fact that the attack flight paths Over the magnetic disturbances of the North pole Are not the ones Over which soviet missiles have been and that there is potential interference Between attacking War As Well As Many other technical Complex factors i have read the very Large literature on this i have chosen performance assumptions that Are More generally accepted in the military technology and that i regard As using this i Esti mate that a soviet attack might destroy Between 300 and 500 minuteman mis Siles out of a total of Many knowledgeable analysts would say this result is too High that More minutemen would but As i have made the exact number does not matter for strategic Pur now for the my i said earlier that it was surprisingly to Start the proposed my according to information published by the would be Able to with stand Only 600 pounds per Square Inch of blast this compares to pounds per Square Inch for the this could probably be fixed by spending a few billion dollars the my depends for its survival on maintaining position location uncertainty there is widespread scepticism among technical people about the ability to keep secret the actual location of the real missiles from satellites that can pick up a wide variety of if Plu is a soviet attack employing warheads might de stroy 80 to 85 of the proposed 200 my but if the location of the my missiles were an attack with Only 400 warheads might leave Only 50 of if the my is not Good for its alleged has it another purpose per haps it except for its elaborate we canadians could do worse than to change our National from sea to sea is Little More than a geographical we need something that makes a statement about about our for we could look to the television there is one that could be modified to suit our National it is that Tea com Mercial which always Only in Canada you with Only a slight our motto could Only in Canada you surprised if we need justification for a new National we could examine our policies in in in fiscal or a number of other important if we want a glaring example of Why we need a new we have Only to look at depending on where we live in Cana we have available different television if we live in we May have As Many As 35 television stations we can if we live in an Urban such As we have fewer but still have available to us the network programming that is generated both in Canada and in the United if we do not live in or in a relatively Large sized what we can watch is deter mined More by bureaucrats than by if anyone wants to raise the in vow w pc Sliv o3 Dei Ciolll us Lilc i j j ical theater weapons would have be Force j k minutemen would but As i of More i Ween and weapons for a have made the exact number if the my is not Good for its alleged retaliatory depending on Wyeth such As the congressional does not matter for strategic Pur has it another purpose per in Pac r you believe the committee for the budget office and several of my col haps it except for its elaborate Rig what you want when you want motto had already been Are ment has hinted that while it expects Canadian and who superstitions it determined to alter the viewer Satis fac canadians to react in the Patriot in a rage of demand to see Newfoundland m Rego Tion level so that it fits the govern pc it is prepared to Send in the our new Canadian superstitions so ments redcoats who will seize any dish that is that we can enjoy the Canadian Content newfound la i i Oval icy to Saccom pish this the Canadian not panted the right watching that the bureaucrats have determined one French radio television and Tele Communia unauthorized our prime will be so Good for our Rural cousins also objected tons commission has authorized can minister May Tell is a crime in Back to the we will not be will not be a Manv nil req of Ftp nah cd Niilo to con to vim Florino a Repp of Ontario Odinec transportation the my is not unlike the limited strategic War fighting capability that the Secretary of defence James Schlesinger tried unsuccessfully to sell the Congress in the Congress walked at the concept of creating a nuclear War fighting capability because of the millions of civilian casualties that would could the my be a massive Shell game to fool the american the con and even president Reagan into building the rejected War fighting capability every after taking has had to modify his views from those he expressed during his if president Reagan chosen not to buy the my his options will remain open and the future might be a great Deal More hopeful for All of Washington Post More focus on Page 8 question of Why the government should stick its nose into what we can watch on the questioner should be referred to the need for a new National watching any is not considered illegal by most Cana that is Why smaller com and in Remote there Are those satellite dishes that Are aimed at the signals from the the payt and the sports networks that carry As or More Canadian games As our own networks these canadians Are in the governments but they Are where the bureaucrats there is More the people who Are watching these satellite signals do not consider them selves they do not feel that their culture is being or that they need to be protected by bureaucrats against cultural the View the Situa Tion acting As if our motto had already been Are determined to alter the viewer satisfaction level so that it fits the govern ments to accomplish this the Canadian radio television and telecommunications commission has authorized can an organization that put in the culture oriented Applina to transform four Canadian inde pendent stations into our equivalent of new or Chicago super of will be in the French soon now these stations will be available across Canada through the use of Canadian they must surely represent what the government considers acceptable Ca Nadian the incident will be about 60 per cent repeats of existing Csc and ctr and the balance our usual fare of once the system canadians living outside Urban areas will be expected to do the patriotic thing and switch their dishes away from the recent movies shown on the movie or Home Box office in new and suffer along with the rest of what happens if these canadians do the unpatriotic and decide they would rather watch a movie on a Longwinter night than the third rerun of the abcs Riel the govern ment has hinted that while it expects canadians to react in the patriotic it is prepared to Send in the redcoats who will seize any dish that is not pointed the right watching unauthorized our prime minister May Tell is a crime in Many parts of the and we should not expect to have a different society Here any More than we should expect to be Able to buy gasoline cheaper where it is than where it is this under our new will take care of the canadians who do not live in what about the rest of who May want to see our new doonesbury Canadian and who in a rage of demand to see our new Canadian superstitions so that we can enjoy the Canadian Content that the bureaucrats have determined will be so Good for our Rural cousins Back to the we will not be allowed to see during a recent conference of Federal and provincial communications ministers held in win the government of newfound land protested against this part of the ruling because not Only was there no Newfoundland superstition in the there was no time adjust meaning that programs Broad cast from most of the new Canadian superstitions would not be seen in Newfoundland until three to four hours Newfoundland also objected to the one French new Brunswick also but because this station will not be allowed into Urban Ontario objected because the Sig so popular in the Northern part of that would have to be switched it is difficult to be a Canadian under our present we would All be More comfortable if we could Only shrug our and with the governments Only in Canada you surprised of new en6lanp Swik asked j for air to help control infestations of Theam Bucan citing the threat of Antine from i the four joint pm hmm to combat what is re6arkp As a particularly Strain of King Omassa whose Stuie is hardest slams the new Poi Cal climate in Washington for the proliferation of these Pesky Aerial spraying 15 expected to commence at a i ;