Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - September 24, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free september focus assassinations fail to drive out mullahs by William Beecher Hie Boston Globe Washington we Call them the seasoned Diplomat describing the agility of some regimes and policies in his part of the beyond the single there is no policy one Bullet and the whole orientation of the state can change he As exam Hafez Assad in Syria and Saddam Hussein in Abolhassan the former president of Iran who fled for his life to believes in a variant of the on Bullet theory that Only a handful of key lieutenants under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini keep the islamic mullahs in control of Iran revolutionary gov after a recent series of Assas he declared one More explosion and its All Massoud the self described Leader of the leftist Mujahideen opposition who escaped to France with Bani chimed in Khomeini cannot Exchange men like the implication of such declarations is that a few More Well placed bombs and bullets and the Khomeini regime will quickly plummeting Iran into another bloody phase of civil War and conceivably tempting the soviet Union to intervene to influence the of could turn out to be the but a number of Ameri can analysts Are both about the presumed fragility at this juncture of Khomeini hold on Power and even about Raga is claim to top leadership of the Khomeini still appears to enjoy wide popular especially among the poor people to whom the government is careful to provide weekly welfare one specialist the Economy is in sad shape but has not turned out to be the Achilles Heel Many of us had they Are still producing about million barrels of Oil a enough to keep barrels for Domestic use and Export the rest for hard there is Street and shootings every but welfare pay ments Are there seems to be plenty of there is kerosene for cooking and cars and trucks it int a particularly pleasant life for the but it is of All the top Khomeini officials killed Over the last few Only one was regarded As a really impress Ive figure Ayatollah Seyed Moham mad director of the islamic Republican party Irp until his the second most powerful Man in but As for the the specialists say their replacements appear to be of about equal Quality and expert having had Long association with As v the danger is not that Khomeini has been forced to scrape the Bottom of the he has says one the danger is that the process of digging in and institutionalizing the mullahs control Over every depart ment of government has therefore when who is suddenly the mullahs should be Able to remain in but it is far from Clear for How for a Man of his one who suffered a heart attack a year and a half Khomeini is believed to be in reasonably Good and his Home is protected not Only by substantial numbers of troops but also antiaircraft guns in Case some anti clerical pilots should try to go after him with 500 Pound the american intelligence Community is not convinced All the assassinations Are being mounted by the Muja the secular marxists who received terrorist train ing alongside the islamic Mujahideen from the Palestine liberation organi and who cooperated loosely with them in the drive to oust the Are thought to be involved and it is suspected that there Are some Well organized secret military groups also Bent on getting rid of the present some of these bombings have been very very one expert these Are not Ama a number of specialists expressed that who is speaking for the Mujahideen in is actually supreme Leader of that shadowy organi they Are among the most secretive people in the one expert they Are organized into Small its doubtful that the supreme Leader is known to More than four or five of the thousands of suspected Mujahideen put before fir ing squads in recent none Are believed to be senior these Are the the Young people on the contrary to the conventional specialists feel the russians and their Favoriti iranian the Udeh communist do not stand a Good Chance to inherit the should the mullahs both have thrown their full support to Khomeini and the acid would thus carry that taint if the popular mood turned against the at the same the russians have resumed their prewar arms Supply to sending shipload of weapons to Baghdad at the very time its troops Are fighting on iranian whatever re Gime follows the clerical one is not Likely to easily forgive or the merchant known As the is thought to have largely become disenchanted with the Kho Meini they object to the continued nationalization of both International and internal the bazaars Are considered not in that they helped organize and finance the anti Shah some of them support a return of others have ties with other prominent Given the indiscriminate resort to the firing they Are keeping their Heads intelligence sources for the time being at the armed forces seem to be staying aloof from the Power keeping Busy with the desultory War with Iraq and not openly siding with any single fac when who had been their had his showdown with the military stayed out of most regardless of their frustrations and seem to be biding their time until Khomeini in the they have publicly pledged their loyalty to making no mention of fealty to the for one they have to and the clerics have their representatives in even the smallest acting both As promulgate is of the Faith and watchdogs against both the fedayeen and the Mujahed Een Are working to improve relations with Iran numerous racial particularly the Independence minded Raja i tells newsmen in Paris that if the Mujahideen come to they will Grant internal administrative autonomy to the minorities in Khuze Stan and Baluchistan an obvious pitch for their support in the contest for Loyal the stalemated now pretty much reduced to an Exchange of artillery and rocket is expected to continue until a change at the top in either Tehran or Baghdad opens the Way to a negotiated at Iraq Hussein has Little incentive to end the because he is getting billions of dollars in War contributions from the the kuwaitis and other Arab Oil producers who fear the spread of Khomeini and Khomeini is not about to sue for peace unless Iraq first agrees to vacate All iranian so a peaceful Compromise is thought to be possible Only after one of those leaders is no longer in As to the dynamics of the Power inside one top analyst concludes the iranian revolution has been feeding on itself for some but that is the Way of particularly one with so Many disparate but this Hast been any thing like the Bloodbath that occurred after the French where tens of thousands were in its been perhaps two or three thou but the terror wont last the people will eventually get tired of the who will emerge to capture no one can most everyone that so Long As Khomeini the clerics will retain Khomeini death will bring a new Power struggle to decide who controls Iran revolution our town plan your weekend with our town every Winnipeg free press Home delivery 9570550 Tamm Stic suntan mime a Mimi 20 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