Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 5, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba 1 Winnipeg free november 1981 7 Churchill Rupert land Brandon West Brandon East Small vote shifts and the absence of Liberal candidates in some Ridings May cause unexpected election swing Ridings make election forecast hard by Michael Kinnear special to the free press in the 1977 progressive conservatives won 33 seats to 23 for the new democratic while the liberals trailed with the pcs got per cent of the total the highest percentage any party has won in a Manitoba provincial election since but despite their High the pcs almost lost if Only 316 voters in the five closest seats had voted nip in Stead of the two major parties would have been yet the pcs would still have led in the provincial vote because they piled up huge wins in most suburban Winnipeg seats in for compared to a total vote for All parties of just in the nip seat of Point the distribution of seats in the last election was based on the 1961 but Between 1961 and Many voters left the inner City and Rural seats for the Winnipeg the areas they left tended to vote while the areas they went to were mostly in constituency boundaries were to be in line wifi the current every constituency in the province except Rhineland had new quite the new Bor Ders would have changed the political nip May get Osborne for in the pcs the nip in but the new Osborne constituency will probably be an nip since Many tory polls were shifted to fort an nip seat since 1971 would have had a Small tory Lead on its new if the 1977 results had been applied to the new the pcs would have lost one Rural seat Gimli to the and gained one the pcs would also have lost two Rural seats through in win the pcs would have lost of and Wolseley to the while picking up the new seats of Kirkfield River and two former pc Crescent Wood and and two former nip Winnipeg Centre and Point Douglas would have the net change in the City of Winni Peg thus would have been an nip gain of and a pc gain of the total change in the province would have been a net Transfer of one seat from pc to the Overall effect of the redistribution would thus seem to be quite but the real effect is on the marginal where the pluralities in the last election were under five per with the old there were 21 relatively Safe nip 28 relatively Safe tory and eight Boundary change effects with the new there Are 20 relatively Safe nip 29 relatively Safe and again eight margin not a big change at first until one considers that 29 is the magic number which gives a party a Clear of this assumes that there were no changes whatever from the 1977 apart from new constituency but there probably will be Many changes from the 1977 Many seats have new and there is the question of How much support the Lyon government has lost or even gained since coming to then one must consider the new progressive and also what will happen to the 1977 Liberal especially in the 18 seats where there is no Liberal Candi Date this there is no certain Way of predicting How the election will turn one must rely on the past results for guid we can consider several possibilities a uniform swing across the province a swing taking place in Winnipeg and where the Rural vote stays much the same As in a third approach is to consider what could happen if there is a Given swing in and a swing Only half As Large in the Rural it is possible that the pcs have gained support since if that is then they would be but the general opinion is that they have lost some and the question How much ground if we assume that there is a swing from pc to and that it is uniform Ace in unvers it is ought to be truism that you cannot judge the Worth of a City by the won lost record of its sports if you Are going to judge a City by the combined winning records of its baseball and Basket Ball what you get is Philadel phia and you Are Welcome to the Best football team in the world last year came from a City with which i am Well believe you would not want to live there Oakland is not even a Nice place to All this is by Way of coming to the defence of a City much maligned these Days by Gleeful detractors who Clinch their Case by pointing to the Toronto Blue a baseball team of proven the Toronto Maple a hockey team in the same league As the Hartford and the Toronto which is a football team in a class by looked at from the perspective of a Toronto is a Purgatory of fumbled missed nets and dropped Fly what seems to bother Toronto new wave of critics most is that Toronto Nivans Are not bothered by losing a trait i would attribute to an advanced maturity but which the knockers diagnose As some May recall that when the Argos and Leafs were regularly beating up on everybody in their respective Toronto was one of the least lovable towns in the country starchy and now that Toronto has become one of the worlds great it boasts some of the worlds worst there is Strong evidence to suggest this is not Mere but part of a master plan to prevent anything creeping into the like a winning base Ball that would cause the Lake Shore to resemble the South the fact that the Blue jays have spent their life thus far in the american league cellar might simply be the result of sound Urban at least this would make As much sense As those who claim Toronto is like because the Argos do not have the but Only selected just once in a great while does a team emerge in professional sports with the panache of this years double it is also True that were the Argos anywhere else say would have been civil unrest if not open remains when it is not simply enjoying the Toronto knows what the joke which is not Only the Argos but the league speaking As a nonresident and from the vast Canadian i admit to being an unabashed admirer of Toron i a lot of canadians if not a majority of them feel More secure and less hassled in Toronto than in any other City they it is spa Eye filling and in Good working those who Admire cities for their encrusted stench and squalor have much to choose from they will not find Toronto while in Toronto last i attended the graduating ceremonies at Ryer son pol technical what impressed this observer about the proceedings was the cultural and racial diversity of the Many of them were first or second generation canadians who had come from All parts of the free and not Ofree world their presence offered a striking confirmation of something already which is the allure Toronto holds for the great majority of newcomers to multiculturalism is a relatively new Canadian but it is the City of Toronto which has and will continue to the largest experience with the immigration policy of Canada has impacted upon Toronto More than any other City in the coun and thus far no City and society anywhere can claim so exemplary a record of maintaining Harmony and Tranquillity in the midst of so much demographic in Toronto has become the Model for the future in in the Long it will not be the Montreal expos who will further unite the nation cliche of recent inspiration but More Likely it will be Toronto example of a City of Toler Ance and Canada wide feature service across the then a swing of one per cent that one per cent pc and one per cent nip gain would produce 31 pc and 25 nip with one a uniform swing of two per cent would give the nip three More one of them from the and the result would be 29 pc and 28 nip a uniform swing to the nip of three cent would still have the nip per cent behind the pcs in total but would give them one More and hence a in the the swings from one party to another have been quite Vari Able in Manitoba for in they ranged from a pro tory swing of per cent in Assiniboia to a Prondo swing of per cent in in the biggest swings were in Winnipeg especially the so one might consider the effect of a similar trend in but with the swing to the nip rather than to the if the tory vote held solid in the Rural but declined in the then the nip would not gain a majority of even one seat unless the swing in its favor was at least seven per such a Large swing is since the average swing Over the past eight elections was Only per the nip could not really expect to win in 1981 on this basis unless it made spectacular gains in one or two seats which were not marginal in Rural changes Likely but it is Likely that there would be some movement in the Rural let us assume that such movements Are Only half As great in the no Winnipeg seats As in Winnipeg thus a one per cent swing in plus a per cent swing elsewhere would give the nip 25 the pcs and the liberals a two per cent one per cent outside Winnipeg swing would produce 30 pcs and 27 with a three per cent per cent outside Winnipeg the result would be pc nip it would be the same with a four per cent swing two per cent outside while a five per cent per cent outside Winni Peg swing would give the nip a majority of As would a six per cent three per cent outside Winnipeg past is prologue Given the past voting habits of Mani the most Likely outcome is a swing from pc to which is some what greater in Winnipeg than else there Are bound to be seats where the withdrawal of the liberals could make a big or where an extra Strong pc or nip candidate could turn the but apart from such which cannot readily be a swing of two per cent to five per cent from the pcs to the nip in and of half that size else would show up As roughly 28 to 30 and 27 to 29 Many observers have said that the election Campaign has been pretty Dull but on the basis of these project ions from the past the election night itself could be very interesting Michael Kinnear is an associate pro Fessor of history at the University of More focus on Page 8 several women could win in this election the time has for Many women have stayed primarily behind the political front and while several have made their names in they have been relatively there is an irony that despite the fact that females make up More than half of Manitoba Only two held seats in the last legislative Assem after november there is Likely to be More female members than at any time in Provin Cial that history goes Back Only to 1916 when Manitoba women received the right to when the next provincial election was called in five were Brave enough to enter the fray and As the dust Edith a lib emerged As the first female her Victory probably served As an inspiration to the six women who decided to seek office in but she was the Only one to that May have discouraged other potential candidates from running in won after the next there was a totally male Rogers had not run and tiie sole female labor candidate was some improvement occurred after the 1936 when one of the three female candidates for the social credit under the dome Arlene Billinkoff Salome won in the Riding of George and sat for one those five years were followed by almost 20 years of Wilder in the five elections Between 1941 and Only eight women sought office and every one Only in 1959 was More interest Apas six female candidates entered the when the votes were not one was but a by election held six months later re turned tory Thelma Forbes As the member for she went on to become speaker of the House and a Cabinet minister under the Roblin and Weir Forbes continued to win and was joined in 1960 by another Caro Lyne who won a by election and the succeeding two elections in by both decided not to run and it was time for new members to since judging by the increasing number of women Are be coming More involved in the political ten were nominated in 13 in 1973 and 17 in the growth in was not reflected in the in tory Inez Trueman became the representative for fort but she was the sole female after her defeat in the legislature returned to its me Only when the votes were counted in it was not much better since Only tory Norma Price was elected in thanks to a the female representation was doubled As Liberal june Westbury took Over the fort Rouge that Victory brought the total num Ber of women who had been elected to the magic number of it is not too but those Days have in this seven candidates actually have a fighting Chance of Vic there is a record number of 27 female candidates from the new Progress Ives and they represent professions As varied As civil business real estate Farmer and head of a political and Range in age from 26 to 65 the likelihood of Victory covers a similar such As progressive Valerie Wilson in communist Paula Fletcher in Liberal Bev Mccaffrey in tory to Lopuck in Transcona and new Democrat Toni Vosters in Charleswood Are not considered to be probable although it is always possible for a Longshot to come others have More Char Lotte who won the tory Nomina Tion Over Veteran Henry will win which has been that party stronghold for Many Gerrie Hammond is Likely to keep Kirkfield formerly represented by in the tory even if she did it would still be won by a female because the Only other Candi Date is new Democrat Lee Maureen who has been campaigning in Logan for the past doonesbury should win that Riding for the despite the return of Steve Juba to the political meanwhile Muriel who was a Strong Candi Date in stands an excellent Chance of carrying the nip Banner to of it will be More difficult for Myrna Phillips to capture Wolseley for the but she May be helped by the activities of her while some of them have been involved in personal she has attempted to conduct a More straightforward which just May the future of Mary Beth the nip candidate in May de Pend on the general when that area was part of the old seven Oaks it favored but if there is Art antigovernment she has a fairly Good Westbury May be the victim if such a trend especially if it leads to greater her loss might mean the Complete elimination of any Liberal her solid work As an la and As a May yet save that As All candidates the election is not won until All votes Are regardless of the it is Likely that the female representation in the next Assembly will be at least double the former it is to be hoped that it will be the Start of a so that in the future it will no longer be but merely a Normal some of hats n ;