Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 12, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free november 1981 7 vote trend towards moderation by Michael Kinnear special to the free press Many myths haunt our recollections of the 1977 provincial it is supposed to have polarized Manitoba politics Between right and left As never with the Rich farming areas and the suburbs voting and the poorer northeastern Rural the North end of Winnipeg voting pretty much along economic the Liberal decline according to this from this eco nominally based polarization be tween right and the baneful influence of Pierre these statements Are far from a total picture of the development of Manitoba politics Over the past 30 if one looks at Lon term changes in one sees a nearly continuous movement towards the political one also sees that enough ethnic voting remains to complicate compari son of our election results with economic factors such As income the clearest Lon term trend has been that governments which have prospered have had moderate the governments which have fallen have done so after adopting Small conservative policies the liberals in and the tories in 1969 or by running out of steam the nip in the Only exception so has been the current pc govern not unfairly labelled As Small especially in contrast with the Roblin and Schreyer re until led by Douglas formed a righting based on the Rural the Rural areas had Only 55 per cent of the total Popula Tion at that but 72 per cent of the seats in the in the last time the liberals won a Manitoba provincial they obtained 35 29 of them Rural and Only six in Winnipeg was grossly underrepresented in the so the Camp Bell government transferred four seats from the country to Winnipeg to rectify Campbell lost this the movement of population from the Rural areas to Winnipeg has Contin and governments will be More and More dependent on the but relatively volatile Urban and less on the but More stable Rural one can conclude that a Small conservative party will find itself less and less Likely to gain or to keep since the Rural population base for such a party will drop As a proportion of the provincial that does not mean there will be an nip landslide in 1981 just that the tories must make a definite Appeal to centrist and not rely on antagonism to socialism to keep them in but there has also been a steady movement within Winnipeg away from the old nip and this Means that the nip will also have to Appeal to centrist tory vote recovered the general trends for the three major parties since 1949 have been these the tory vote Rose rapidly be tween 1949 and declined some what during the and recovered dramatically in the nip vote remained relatively constant at about 20 per until when there was a substantial gain from the a gain which continued in the lib eral which had been pretty steady at 30 to 40 per cent up to fell in and in each election Trudeau had just come to Power in and the Federal liberals were at their highest level for so the drop off in the 1969 provincial election could hot be blamed even on in it appears that the liberals lost support in 1969 because of their concentration on winning right Wing voters in Rural in the liberals veered the other and they lost Rural but did not pick up much in the since the nip had already solidified its hold in the liberals nearly disappeared this looked like polarize but until 1970 or the liberals were the most right Wing of the three major and their position after wards was often the tories gained Power in 1958 As a centrist with their major base being in the tories drifted More to the As did the while the nip moved towards the under de the pc government elected in 1977 is More Small c conservative than either Roblins or it is also More Rural and in 1958 the pcs won 45 per cent of the Urban compared with 46 per cent of no Wirf Nipes in the pcs had a big win in no Winnipeg seats 70 per but As in 1958 took Only 45 per cent of the Winnipeg the tory Centre of Gravity has definitely moved towards the at the same time As that of the province has moved in the opposite in the tories own policies car ried the Day in the Rural seats but in the Urban it was More a rejection of specific policies of the nip govern thus one can detect two Long term patterns the continued Small conservatism of Small along with the numerically More important centrist attitudes of these two trends coincided for the 1977 elec but their coincidence in future elections is much less another common Assumption is that voting in Manitoba today follows eco nomic one May look at the poll poll results of the last several and compare them with Cen sus figures showing income Levels and other economic one can find a Strong relation Between Low incomes and a High nip vote in some constituencies such As and but no such relation Between the two in Inkster or Sturgeon this Lack of a straightforward relationship Between voting and economics in Many seats remains even when one allows for the role of individual and the another View of Manitoba politics is that polarization exists not Only along but also along geographic if one looks at a map showing who won which one sees that the nip have for Long won most seats in North and in the Rural areas North of a line drawn from Emerson to but the nip won Many polls South of this while the tories won Many polls North of More to the in the nip strongholds of North the pcs gained per cent Between 1969 and com pared with a gain of per cent in Southern Winnipeg not a big differ but enough to show that voting trends have not been solely on North South pcs improved in de Clining areas such As Burrows plus per Inkster plus per and Johns plus per cent even More than in some suburban seats such As Kiel plus per cent or Sturgeon Creek plus per one influence in the latter two seats was that the tory Las in Kiel Don Craik and Sturgeon Creek Frank Johnston had been identified with their party righting More centrist tories such Sabud Sherman had big Ger swings in their favor plus per cent in fort despite the rela Tive social and economic similarity of their several influences if polarization has not decided the parties and if voting has not always been along predictable economic just what has been the key there Are Many keys voting is some times on economic sometimes on ethnic there Are Many other influences As one Factor is individual a Strong candidate can often carry a constituency which his party did not expect to in Izzy Asper won despite the fact that his party had rarely fared Well there be Larry Desjardins swung Boni face from decades of Liberal representation including his own to the there Are Many More another important Factor is the eth Nic makeup of the sever Al ethnic voting trends have in the Rural ukrainian vote transferred from both tories and liberals to the nip in the tories picked up from the liberals among while the nip went from 13 per cent to 45 per cent in franc Manitoban Indian voters had been divided evenly Between the three Par ties in but shifted overwhelmingly to the nip in and stayed nip in even though nearly All other groups shifted to the there is an increasing tendency to vote for ones own economic interest in Many but one cannot really Call this since most voters Are neither Rich nor there is a significant isthmus of connection Between the obvious beneficiaries of tory Rule in and the obvious beneficiaries of nip Rule in a party relying on one economic group As the nip has often or on one ethnic group As the pcs have often done will be vulnerable to big even if it seems solidly thus the whose 1977 Victory makes them seem almost May have based too much on continued and not enough on win Ning the majority of voters who Are neither to the left nor to the Michael Kinnear is a professor of history at the University of Manito population shifts and Liberal vote changes marked premierships of Doug Duff Roblin and de they All helped make it possible the dynamics of nation building Are As Many As they Are mysterious had not so Many things happened along the both Large and nothing would have had the originator of this Initia Tive to Patriate the with amending formula and charter of been other than Pierre tru other than a French speaking and other than the Leader of the majority party in parliament which included seventy four members from the initiative could never have got off the were it not for this historic the British North America act would have remained in perhaps had not the Premier of Bill supported the prime not even a Trudeau could have it was important that Davis was a even though Liis support of Trudeau obliged him to Hazard his own standing in his party Ini Ontario and run even greater at the As the Leader of a minority government at Queens the vital contribution of Ontario Premier to the which most canadians Are Cele was that of a rare and person Al Richard the Premier of served throughout As the conscience in the even though a often unnerving More than any of the succeeded in Dalton Camp keeping the issues before the Canadian and in terms they fully under often through the simple device of out raging the Canadian As Public men no one could be More Public than nor More Access and reviewing his tireless it could be said of it that while it was not without it impressed Many for its essential sincerity and unmistakable sense of when i asked one of the participants in the climactic meeting last who the True icebreakers were never mind the legendary pne the answer Roy Roy to a Newfoundland civil servant and the West fed when i spoke to Mcmurtry and to both swiftly passed the credit to Ontario actor would Only i Hope All those people who were saying Bill Davis want pulling his weight in this thing will now know How wrong they i was and i know it have happened without Saskatchewan attorney described it As a Chain read in which Allan Blakeney was a crucial a connector Between Davis and Peter Lougheed who in was a connector to Brian Peckford our Advance Man one of the pre Miers had called him in the brought the bad news of the inevitable dissolution of the gang of eight to Rene and brought the Good news of a proposed agreement to tru it was More than merely helpful that Mcmurtry and representing opposite had be come personal friends during the interminable discussions and preliminary negotiations Over the past they trusted each other and they knew their principals when the principals finally decided they had to the two roys forged the All that matters less than the on Hatfield admitted he would not have bet a Nickel on the chances for agreement were just sitting Here spinning hours he would claim to have sensed something happening like which he could Only diagnose As the mounting pressure of Public now weighing on the the first real consensus among the premiers became the vis ceral awareness that the Only option they did not have was one to Dis the prime against the advice of some of his then produced his solution to the impasse conducted on regional for his charter and amending when Levesque hastened to embrace the game was when i heard Levesque agree to said a member of a Western provincial i realized he was prepared to hang us out to it was a fatal miscalculation for a decision which not even the premiers own gave pause for to say the to the one has Only to imagine the Premier of Sas or of Nova campaigning with Rene Levesque against a charter of rights in a National referee the gang of eight then began to dissolve into a party of the question arises naturally did the prime minister once More outwit his old or did Levesque simply overplay his hand Only tru Deau but it is doubtful he will other opinions but one of them is from a Man who was there and saw it All you dont have to like the Man said of the prime but you have to know Hes Canada wide feature service More focus on Page 8 four Strong if the Battle in Wolseley is any Indi the election results remain in the As revealed during a town Hall where the candidates matched wits and attempted to gain support from there was neither a total Winner nor one of 29 Urban Wolseley stands out because of its relatively Strong fou Way the Candi dates include Doug Leader of the Liberal Myrna a Follower of the nip approach to gov Murdoch a Progress Ive because of his dissatisfaction with that and Len a tory who avoids any mention of his leaders of the Mackay is considered to be More of a spoiler than a potential his party lacks the finances to launch a Campaign with a multitude of signs and advertising and his head quarters is in his own despite his Cowkey he May yet have an depending on whether peo ple will vote for a party or an i Dividu Mackay has been in this race before and gave tory Bob Wilson a Good fight in when he was less than 80 votes away from this he is unlikely to draw a similar but according to calculations based on the 1 1977 if he receives Only 200 under the dome Arlene Billinkoff votes which would normally go to the the Riding might remain in the tory while that result would please Domi the liberals refuse to accept with their party possibly on the verge of extinction on the provincial they realize the Wolseley race is a door die situation and Are exerting All their Are those efforts sufficient based on the 1977 a Liberal would come in As a Distant there has been a change As More attention is being focussed on the lib eral candidate because he is a certainly Lauchlan is attempting to capitalize on that position As he campaigns throughout Wolseley and holds numerous press conferences in the i his appearance at a dinner in Portage la Prairie last weekend was one of the few times he left the with Liat it is Likely he will receive More votes than the last Liber Al but he must pick up Between and votes from the tories and new democrats in order to while it May be a glorious it May also be reminiscent of Custers last the situation is different for the nip and tory each of them has an excellent Chance of the 1977 figures give Phillips a slim Edge and she has been working for More than a year to make sure those figures Are proven she has also Man aged to avoid most of the which has been and has concentrated on emphasizing the nip approach to government and the ultimate benefits to the Domino refuses w be frightened by those he demonstrated an ability to win in the last while prognosticate were certain the tories would few believed the Riding of Matthews would leave the nip managed to attract 124 votes More than his this time he has launched a two pronged on one Side he fights opponents in the while on the other Side he attempts to separate himself from the tory yet still support some of its Well aware of the negative reaction to his none of his literature bears any reference to Sterling while his statements tend to concentrate More on local with some retaliation to personal that approach was evident during the town Hall Domino began by discounting rumours about his weak Ness As an describing them As lies and half truths and insisting he would not indulge in such he focussed on items which do not make frontage such As dutch Elm disease and safety on the of he also believed it was necessary to Point out nip errors of the Lauchland Lack of policy and Mackay previous life As a new Lauchlan avoided criticism of Fel but also emphasized doonesbury local he talked about the need for Home maintenance renovation of slum child care and Security for senior there was no list of tory although he did question the conditions for some of the Meg projects and pointed out the created by both tory and nip it was a positive presen marred Only by his requirement to answer a question about his dec Adelong absence from the Mackay had no problem in that area and concentrated instead on explaining the major progressive attack ing Tor created deficits and noting that nip promises would Only Worsen the economic Phillips disagreed with that argument As she spent much of her time those they would improve the Standard of living in Manito she in contrast to the tory action which had ended the growth and excitement created during the Golden years of the Schrey Enad her message sounded but so did the and judging by the occasional Boos and the More frequent the Public was still despite the opinion of pundits that voting decisions have already been it seems that the representative of Wolseley will not be determined until november pinot sinks us As a soul ten to the our proposal to abolish ;