Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 16, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Tree november v focus by Afef Cal Klimar special to the free press the progressive conservative Vic tory in the Tot provincial election resulted from several these influences were noticeable Well before election and Many people predicted the tory Victory Long before it actually took Many of those factors Are but this time against the to most the pcs seem to have lost if they have lost this is probably due to their misreading the 1977 and in part to circumstances beyond the control of any provincial government the it i result showed a big tory gain 11 per Sterling Lyon in particular seems to have regarded it As a swing to the on the this seems like an obvious aut that 12 per cent gain was made up of a four per cent nip a seven per cent Liberal and one per cent from other Many of those who shifted from lib eral to pc in 197 May have worried about but it seems most improbable that those who shifted from nip t6 pc were polarized by a red scare or anything of the some other explanation for the 1977 shift must be when one considers voting trends in other such an explanation can indeed be before the Oil crisis of most provincial governments in this country had a relatively easy Public tended to be Over where the Money should be rather than Over where it could be Manitoba had rather less to spend than most but the general even was one of cautious Tut from 1974 provincial and Federal elections held in this coun try showed an average loss by the ruling party of per these losses ranged from per cent from Liberal to pm in Quebec in 1978 Down to a per cent loss from nip to social credit in in the Manitoba with their loss of four per cent were practically dead on Centre of the National such a and almost Universal trend suggests that something which was common to these provinces produced the the Only obvious thing that the nip of 1975 had in common with the Quebec liberals 1976 and the Ontario tories 1977 was economic in Shock hit Manitoba one May compare the situation in the late 1970s with that of the when every provincial government in the As Well As the Federal govern changed it is True that our economic problems Are not so Desper ate As in the but considerable malaise the Lyon on coming to seemed to believe that the nip because of their socialist rather than because of Short term economic thus they re lied to some degree on a continuation of these supposed anti socialist voting one May note in passing that if the four per cent who shifted from nip to pc in 1977 shift Back to the nip on november then the Lyon govern ment will probably be of Many factors May operate to reduce this one can consider several such fac tors the location of the voters who economic and ethnic voting to Deal with geographic re Gions Rural Manitoba had big swings to the tories in the seats along the american along the Saskatchewan the swing was much lower three Swan and Brandon West there was a Small swing from the tories to the swings in Northern Manitoba were quite depend ing on the number of indians the Indian though not the indians off tended to stick with the within the Rural constituencies As a there was a marked difference Between farming areas and the Small there were 26 constituencies where one can distinguish Between the farming and no farming the nip lost an average of per cent More in the farming than in the non farming Only flin and Swan River went against this while 23 seats conformed with the Farmers through out Manitoba were voting against the but More noticeably in the extreme Southern seats than in the seats which moved most strongly to the pcs were while the Central City constituencies shifted less in the pcs can afford to lose ground in the seats along the and also in the Winnipeg suburbs these seats have huge pc the places where there was a much smaller nip to pc shift in 1977 Are also the marginal where the nip make definite headway in one economic influence which May be important this time is rent in october the nip government applied rent and this had a noticeable effect on voting patterns in in seven seats had Large numbers of excluding fort which was virtually All one can compare the Vot ing in apartment blocks with voting in single family there were 20 polls in the six remaining seats which were exclusively apartment these 20 polls had an average nip increase of per compared with an average nip loss of per cent in the no apartment sections of the same by this the nip probably held Rossmere de schreyers former seat because of the rent controls in rent increases were not so much at Issue As they Are in if there is a trend amongst renters to go then one might expect somewhat higher swings than average to the nip in seats such As fort Rouge or James than in seats with relatively fewer rental while economic factors such As rent controls May favor the ethnic factors May favor the tories in some mostly Rural during the past there have been several Clear trends among ethnic one notices that in predominantly Franco Manitoban and ukrainian the turnout was much the same in 1977 As in on Indian reserves and in mennonite Dur ing the same the turnout Rose dramatically by 71 per cent among by 45 per cent among the trend among mennonite voters has been increasingly to the tories since while that on Indian re serves has been to the there Are few marginal constituencies with a Large Indian population most Are safely on the other Emerson constituency has a Large number 24 per cent of and has shifted Between All three parties in the past four the French and ukrainian on which the nip depended in seems to have peaked in that in some close fights in Rural Manitoba such As with a per cent a ukrainian and a pc Lead of Only 150 on the new the nip might miss picking us a seat or two of no mobilization of their ethnic one major trend which has appeared in Manitoba elections Over the Oast few years has been an increasing tendency to vote along the same lines in Federal and provincial two Large scale opinion surveys conducted in the 1973 and 1977 provincial elections found that pc voters in particular tended to vote the same provincially As Federal the trend Over the past three Feder Al elections has not favored the tories they took per cent of the Federal vote in this province in per cent in and 39 per cent in of there is absolute correlation Between Federal and provincial voting and it May be that 1980 was a Low Point from which the tories will but there Are also by election results which Point to a Drift away from the by elections Are often believed to indicate which Way the political wind is is three by elections were held in two years immediately before the last provincial the aver age swing from nip to pc was per cent per cent itt three per cent in and per cent in the 1977 there was an nip to pc swing of per not far off the average for these three there have been three provincial by elections held since and these show an average swing to the nip of cent per cent in River per cent in fort and a swing to the pcs of per cent in one must beware of relying on by election results too As with the Federal these by elections Point to a trend away from the despite these As pointed out in a previous the pcs have a Good Deal of ground which they can and still win the they after obtain almost 50 per cent of the vote last this there will be fewer Liberal and the progressives May split the nip vote in some close and thus make a close race of the elec Michael Kinnear is a professor of history at the University of Manito possible the car 4 w v up Tor Sterling Lyons pcs May be vulnerable among apartment dwellers on rent control the new Accord la Sedan and we believe these luxurious new Honda accords will set the standards of automobile value for years to totally inside and their appearance belies he fact that they Are still truly economical cars to own and to the sleek new aerodynamic profile cuts the air with More fuel saving 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