Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 24, 1981, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free november 1981 7 glut threatens libyan dreams by Charles Powers los Angeles times Libya Oil Nues have fallen by two thirds in the last six forcing the regime of Moa mar a Qaddafi to confront its most serious problems since taking Power 13 years Oil production has plummeted from a High of million barrels a Day at the beginning of this year to a Low in september of about barrels a the losses have caused Libya to reconsider its planned development knowledgeable sources Here it is a Pinch that May be Felt soon by libyan who now have no trouble buying color television sets but frequently have to look hard in Tripoli to find fresh vegetables or the Steep reduction in Oil profits could also Force a slowdown in Tripoli widespread building efforts that give this Seaside in Many the look of a massive construction Money May also have been one of the factors that influenced Libya recent Quick withdrawal of its forces from the neighbouring country of the Liby an intervention there had caused Libya serious problems with several african countries and the Western but at the same according to sources hostility May be driving a Qaddafi More toward the so Viet Camp or toward an isolation that is not Likely to serve the interests of the United states or its european the decline in Oil production Means that Libya income from Oil this year will be about Down from billion last the cause for the severe drop in production has been Libya insistence on asking Between and a barrel for its High Quality crude the offi Cial Benchmark Price of the Organiza Tion of Petroleum exporting countries to which Libya belongs a with a present world Oil production surplus of about one million barrels a Libya customers simply have decided to shop Exxon exit expected the giant american decided about 10 Days ago to pull up stakes and leave the the known As Esso Standard Libya was the fourth largest producer in the country before product Ion Levels began to drop precipitously last Mobil another american is known to be reviewing its operations in the country and May follow Exxon the other american Oil companies in Libya include Occidental the second largest and the Oasis made up of Marathon and Amerada the Lar Gest until Early this Libya supplied about 10 per cent of Oil that level has fallen the Exxon announcement May have caught the libyans by but the government Here has known for some time that its income this year would fall Libya has a develop ment plan that Calls for spending billion Over the next five government directives have already gone out to various ministries ordering a review of next years 1 with a population of not quite three million 50 per cent of which is under 15 years old and a per capita income of annually the second highest to South Africa on the african the reduction in Libya income is not in itself Likely to pose a threat to Khz Addavis sources Here it could make some political strains Here More there is some discontent no question about said one it is one of the anomalies of this place that you can go to the government department store and find 17 kinds of portable but you cant find a potato sometimes you cant find or you cant find vegetal part of it is that the Farmers Are keeping their it is a misted agricultural and econ hic the new Jamah Ariya government supermarkets were opened in Tripoli six months there Are now five of them and they have replaced the thousands of individual stores where people Here used to those smaller shops were shut Down by the the supermarkets were a great attraction at when they were the government made sure they were stocked with glittering imported particularly electronic items like television sets and video All sold at government subsidized cookies galore so you can buy television one source How Many tej Evi Sion sets do you need look at the food youve got a five year Supply of but no no no people dont like the phasing out of the private said another Resi it was a very unpopular and it is one the government May have to the libyans love to be traders and they love to be said another so now there Are Many people with nothing to in these people were supposed to have been Given other jobs to in they Are doing the latest libyan five year which began this was to include major development projects in Agri water retrieval and refining and petrochemical industries and Light it is not yet observers Here what the reduction in Libya Oil income May have on these most said they expect a reduction on imports of con Sumer goods clothing and they will either Stop importing these said one or they will begin to import cheaper stuff from East european until recent they bought the Best goods available on the world observers Here agree that Money was a major Factor in the libyan decision to withdraw its num Bering Between and at from a Qaddafi sent the troops there last december at the request of chads go Kouni whose forces were facing de feat in a Long running civil on go Kouni asked the libyans to and the last of the libyan forces left the Chad Capi two weeks an expensive invasion although the libyan government does not make such figures most sources Here calculate that the military Effort in Chad Cost the libyan government about billion in less than a casualty figures Are equally hard to come but the consensus estimate in Tripoli is that libyans were killed and wounded in the Chad civil some members of the army and some families wre quite distressed at the number of one libyan resident there were also reports of mutilation libyan soldiers with their ears or noses Cut the libyans appear to be embarrassed by this and have kept these people out of income Cut is modifying Moa mar Khz Addavis big and possibly the most Seri consideration involved in the Liby an withdrawal from observers was Khz Addavis desire to be Host to next years meeting of the Organiza Tion of african Unity in which would give a Qaddafi the chairmanship of the organization for the following in make him the diplomatic spokesman for three Large hotels Are under construction Here to House the african Heads of state and their they Are badly since the two hotels now operating in the City Are far below head state Quality and Are usually booked to still another reason for the libyan withdrawal from Chad is Given by Khalifa the libyan director of the Only libyan source who could be quoted by we came to he be cause we were and within 24 hours after president go Kouni made his we announced that we were it is quite but of course no one wants to look at it that he added that he had Given up talk ing to Western journalists he it is like talking to dead there Are Many people in diplomatic and Western business who believe that Libya and a Qaddafi Are some times particularly by americans and members of the Rea Gan who have referred to a Qaddafi As the worlds most dangerous i said one observer who asked not to be that there is a feeling in the United states that Libya is a nuisance and should be reined that her troublemaking capacity should be but whether theres a coherent policy behind this is not particularly i would say that a Qaddafi is neither irrational nor is he he May be you dont have to be mad to be in not even sure Hes All that after what has he really done a Qaddafi has his own angles to and it is helpful to try to look at regarded purely from the libyan Point of the Man went several factors currently Are colouring libyan american the United he closed the libyan Peoples Bureau embassy in the supplies arms to Egypt and All opponents of Khz Addavis the United states was against libyan intervention in washing ton issues steady attacks against alleged Libya supported sometimes with no supporting Evi the Navy shot Down two libyan planes Over the Gulf of Sidra in the Mediterranean there Are Peri Odic rumours of Central intelligence Agency plots to assassinate current military manoeuvres in joined by Somalia and Are regarded As aggressive Mil itary behaviour in which shares boundaries with Egypt and even the Oil the Man went is regarded by libyans As a conspiracy against Libya engineered by the United states and saudi these libyan attitudes could be taken by the United this Man As an indication of libyan Para Noia or he pointed out that it was the two libyan planes that fired first at the american aircraft Over the Gulf of a disputed body of according to this source and others with Long experience in the chasm Between the United states and Libya can Only Widen if present attitudes Are allowed to pre if you push one Man you push him in a certain direct youll see a move by him or a threat to toward the this year he has made visits to Budapest and the he went Are wary of a Qaddafi and handle him but he could be useful to their one simple thing the could the Man is talk to the that May not be so the embassy in Tripoli was burned to the ground during a 1979 the last american diplomatic personnel left Here in diplomatic relations be tween the two have never been affairs Here Are now handled through the belgian pm and the libyans have said the United states is Welcome to base some consular personnel so Noth ing has been nor is there any hint there will be Khz Addavis close identification with the Palestine liberation organization has not helped his relations with plan is drawing some scepticism to a Itri West Germany old German seafaring City has been watching the political winds since the 13th Century and observes the present East West storm with a very canny Over half of it was destroyed in the second world War and has now been restored and modernized with exquisite it is Only 20 Miles from the soviet tanks in communist East it is a Centre of the popular West German publishing houses that have dramatized the european antinuclear peace it is perhaps less impressed by president reagans nuclear arms proposals than the present West German government in but even Here there is Relief that Washington has finally offered for negotiating a pause in the arms this is not but at least it is agreed Here that there is now Hope for a new before the Reagan speech Reagan showing Little enthusiasm for arms control with his lieutenants talking casually about limited nuclear and the nato Alliance in doubt about the fun already studded with nuclear faced a Public revolt against adding new cruise and Pershing 2 nuclear Wear the presidents speech did not quell the anxiety but it certainly its effectiveness May be measured first by Chancellor Helmut schmidts James Reston enthusiastic but also by Moscow Savage condemnation of it As a fraud and a we have been listening to radio Moscow Here in Hamburg these last few before president Brezhnev arrived in West it bombarded this country with an artillery barrage of pro Pagan without the slightest suggestion that there was anything in reagans proposals Worth considering All this directed from Moscow at the the antinuclear demonstrators in Ger Moscow strategy is quite just As it rejected the Marshall plan As a and the lil and Eisenhower plans for the control of nuclear weapons As Ameri can tricks to dominate Europe and therefore threaten the soviet so it is How condemning the Reagan proposals As another imperialistic by so the soviets apparently Hope to encourage the leaders of the antinuclear demonstrations in Europe to raise such a Public howl in the streets that Schmidt and the other West european leaders will not be Able to agree to the emplacement of any new cruise or Pershing 2 missiles in Europe and thus leave the soviet unions ss20 and ss4 and ss5 mis Siles dominating the european balance of it would probably be a mistake to take All these pronouncements out of Moscow and even out of Washington too seriously for the this is not the but Only the propaganda beginning of a Long negotiating process that will Start in Geneva at the end of this Between now and it might be helpful to or at least charges of bad if both sides would try to clarify an important preliminary there is a fundamental conflict in the Public statements out of the and soviet governments about the facts of 1 what the present balance of missile Power is in Europe and 2 about what that balance or imbalance would be if the or soviet proposals were so the propaganda on both sides has concentrated on the intentions or motives of each which is a dangerous guessing but the facts can be or at least president Reagan has defined the facts of the military As he sees or at least a his propaganda has rejected reagans analysis As nonsense and insisted there is no imbalance except the one Reagan is trying to create with his negotiating at Best this is a tangle of complicated military and scientific beyond the understanding of most mor but it has been thrown into the Arena of Public and at least Moscow can take reagans one by and instead of dismissing them As misleading publish their answering facts so that there can be a More rational basis for com some Progress obviously has been the president has finally made an excellent which six months ago might have avoided much trouble with both the allies and the he has been responsive to the objections of the the nato governments and the leaders of the antinuclear movement that he was avoiding negotiations and had no Clear proposals for he is entitled to a fair hearing from them he is getting it from Schmidt and the other nato and also from some antinuclear organizations who have played a major part in forcing Reagan to consider their yet it is not Clear in Hamburg that they will give his concerns As much consideration As he has tardily and reluctantly Given they Are not they but they Are mockingly and will not be convinced by his speech until it is serious negotiations on both sides at new York times met Mornh when the next legislative it will be a new Ball not Only will there be a new but the membership of the legislature will have altered with the new democrats emerging an altered composition was since they have 34 represent compared to the 23 who were elected in however the number is even larger because of the tories have gone through a Simi Lar metamorphosis with six of their people willingly or unwell before november 17 and another group finding itself on the losing Side after the votes were with every there is usually a shift in but the numbers tend to increase with a change in or when voting occurs immediately after redistribution of electoral in the latter Situ some veterans must leave their havens and seek election in less familiar territory or against their own there was a particularly dramatic change after the 1969 it was caused primarily by discontent with the tory but the Boundary changes also played a regardless of the the makeup of the Assembly was drastically the 30person tory team was reduced to while the nip caucus grew from 12 to 28 and the under the dome Arlene Billinkoff Liberal membership shrank from 13 to Only when one of those became a that group contained Only the minimum required to be a recognized there was also an Independent and a social in total that Assembly had 27 new Las because 12 had retired and 15 had gone Down to there tends to be less change when a party remains in but even when the nip returned in 10 new members were in the seven veterans had been while an other three had decided not to the number of novices increased even More after the 1977 when the tories seven new democrats were Defeated and replaced by while Liberal representation dropped 19 three a Liberal and five new democrats had creating a total of 17 new the changes Are even More notice Able after this when the dust cleared last there were 24 new a new government and Only one party As the the most obvious reason for such a shift was dissatisfaction with the tory govern but the new electoral boundaries also played an integral role in deciding the Fate of a number of when the Boundary commission re port was made Public in it was evident that certain people would be in a number of seats were eliminated in the Rural areas and the inner Core of Winnipeg and were re placed by new suburban most of the remaining constituencies were dramatically altered and two held by the tories were prime exam the new James includes sections of the old nip Riding of Welling while Gimli traded its stronghold of Stonewall for part of the nip for Tress of Lac do some of those Hurt by the changes were Quick to move to safer but others had nowhere to perhaps Keith Cosens and George Minaker might have been Defeated even if they had fought within the old but it was apparent that the shifting of certain lines did not help some new democrats faced similar but were Donald Malinowski Riding but since Saul Cherniack had announced his there was a vacancy in since it is regarded As one of composition the safest nip it was inevitable that Malinowski would the retire ment of 10 More veterans and the failure of Henry Einarson to get the tory nomination created vacancies for another group of at the same the creation of the progressive party also led to the election of new three who had formerly sat As new faced opponents from that party and went Down to similar changes were evident in the so called swing where the Previ Ous margins of Victory had been relatively Small in it had been apparent that if there was any movement away from the those Ridings would be the first to while Gerry Mercier and Abe Kovnats were smart enough to flee to the suburbs and those who replaced them in Osborne and Radisson were adding another two to the nip it was further enriched by the capturing of the constituency which had been orphaned after its tory member went to and fort the last stand of the when All the votes were the new democrats emerged with 20 new some replacing those who had retired and others winning tory and Liberal bringing its membership to the largest number since while the tones emerged with Only 23 had four new people for the judging by tory there May yet be another new former Leader Walter Weir retired within a year after his party lost in while Sidney Spivak waited a bit longer after the 1973 election before moving on to other rumours Are already rampant about the future of Sterling How Long will he remain As the Leader of the opposition that answer will not be provided until the next tory for the there will be 24 new Las and they should have a fascinating four doonesbury do you think ifs Okay him off from till improve its a com Pere waste of in Case you pm 15 tou6h but its by 15 not time of Ulris face facj5 the country Vuk sex disc Lamiha Tion that Pok admit m first boys Ion fair and ;