Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 24, 1982, Winnipeg, Manitoba Elj Ilsc or Csc jul by Michael Getler Washington Post Wash Oton president Gatts decision to press ahead with the my missile program while simultaneously seeking arms reduction agree ments with Moscow will sorely test the theory that the United states needs to rearm in order ultimately to reduce nuclear weapons and the likelihood of in a message monday to a Congress divided Over the need for the new Reagan said that the my is1 absolutely essential to maintain americas ability to deter but his decision to deploy my missiles in a dense pack formation is among the most controversial of his entire de Fence even among those who agree with Reagan that the nation needs to modernize its nuclear missile there is a great Deal of doubt that the my dense pack plan would work As planned or whether it is much better than the Carter administration plan that Reagan which called for shuttling 200 mrs Between Shel ters in Utah and there is also a question of whether the dense pack because it involves construction of 100 new under ground silos for the will Vio Fate previous strategic arms limitation treaty Salt agreements with Moscow that the administration has said it not the More Basic disarmament Issue is that the administration says the my May make Moscow More willing eventually to agree to big arms reductions in the talks now under Way in Gene yet the my is virtually certain to be produced and deployed As a necessary modernization of forces no matter what happens in there Are also political complications unlike other weapons decisions in the past three the my dense pack announcement comes at a time when there Are spreading antinuclear movements in this country and in Western the churches Are heavily involved in those there is intense pressure Here to Cut the defence budget and new leadership has taken Over in on top of All this is the sheer technical complexity of dense which rests on a theory that is basically impossible to super Strong silos the theory is that by bunching 100 super Strong new missile silos close the first incoming soviet mis Siles will blow up or Knock off course those following close this will theoretically allow most of the my Force to survive and strike the key to the real effectiveness of a dense will be what the russians think of it rather than what critics the administration believes that dense pack will make the soviets less confident they could launch a nuclear first strike that could wipe out land based which Are the most accurate portion of the retaliatory Reagan called the potential counters to dense pack technical dreams on which no soviet planner or politician would bet the Fate of his several key senators urged that their colleagues keep an open mind about dense pack until All sides can testify on it in but reagans decision will face formidable opposition on Capitol greater perhaps than any arms propos Al he has made so Reagan campaigned hard on the pledge to close a window of vulnerability that he believes Moscow opened in the late 1970s when it fielded a new missile Force allegedly Able to wipe out most of the existing Man land based special commissions studying dense pack estimated the soviets probably could not Knock it out this but dense pack May be vulnerable to still better soviet requiring another escalation 9t the arms race and raising fundamental questions about whether any land based missile can some officials believe the administration made a mistake in emphasizing the window of suicidal in this any missile attack by Moscow would be suicidal it would kill millions of americans and touch off a retaliatory strike with thou Sands of remaining submarine based missiles and but the administration wants my dense pack so it can stay even with the soviets in the nuclear it wants to have in its Arsenal the unspoken threat of first use of accurate the idea is to neutralize any soviet attempt at nuclear but this is difficult to discuss publicly because it suggests there is a new hair trigger on nuclear among the immediate issues will be whether the new plan violates the Salt ii Accord with Moscow that obligates both sides not to Start construction of additional fixed icbms administration officials claim that because the my Hii Sajle carries its launch equipment with it in a canister surrounding the that the new underground silos Are not Secretary Caspar Wein Berger said monday that it is not a new launcher because the silo cannot launch the so he cannot but other offi say Moscow is certain to com Weinberger made Howe that we Are determined to go ahead with at mondays briefing for Deputy White House press Secretary Larry Speakes was asked repeatedly whether the new missile would be a bargaining Chip at the arms its certainly our Speakes adding but you have to Deal with the realities of the situation and the realities at the present moment might indicate Many top administration have said privately that my itself is not a bargaining the intention is to deploy it As a follow on to minuteman and negotiate with Moscow about the extent of that in his message Reagan held out the Prospect of build ing even More silos if the soviets dont agree to new we would prefer that the soviets dismantle he said in a refer ence to Moscow current super is rather than we build More Reagan stressed that the United states must and will improve its forces while remaining fully commit Ted to the administration proposals at the those proposals con Tain nothing that would Rule out my As part of a reduced future missile he told Congress that Many minuteman missiles could be removed if agreement is reached with in his letter and during the White soviets Are almost certain to object that reagans my missile plan violates House it was Clear that the administration Felt the dense pack plan was far More acceptable politic ally than Carters plan had been be cause it is cheaper and would take up far less space in the reagans Home the decision to base the missile on land probably also help West european allies who Are battling opponents in their own coun tries who do not want new medium Range american missiles based on european now the United states can say it is deploying missiles on its own soil As in announced his first plan for it involved Basing the first 40 missiles temporarily in existing Titan and minuteman this was rejected by Congress be cause the missiles would remain highly but at that Reagan defended his idea by attacking Carters plan As vulnerable to attack and easy for the soviets to perhaps in an Effort to win bipartisan Reagan was far less harsh on Carters Shell game idea of deceptive the concept of deceptive As employed in previous was a fundamentally sound one for assuring the stability of land based icbms forces times of the president one other reason is that the administration might have to adopt some deceptive Basing if there is no agreement with Moscow and the arms race goes Reagan believes missiles give leverage by Hedrick Smith new York times Washington in their first Exchange since the shift of soviet Leader president Reagan and Yuri an the new soviet party left the deadlock in soviet american relations essentially unrelieved by de Claring their desire for arms control without offering new Public conceal despite rising Domestic uneasiness about the Pace of his military buildup and speculation about the opportunities offered by the change of leadership in the Reagan signalled monday night that he intended to stay on his previous pressing ahead with major new weapons systems As the Best Way to get Moscow to meet his terms for arms whether by coincidence or reagans speech urging Congress to approve a new billion program for the my intercontinental missile came just hours after Andropov made a major speech in which he declared that the policy of detente is by no Means a past stage but belongs to the although both leaders repeated past soviet and american commitments to peace and satisfactory arms control Andropov spurned suggestions from Washington that Moscow show its peaceful intent with what he called preliminary and Reagan declined to moderate his own nuclear strategy or pause in his buil Dup to see How the new soviet Leader ship at this critical moment of each Leader has coupled peaceful polemics with firmness of it is the kind of initial sparring that could have been though Reagan has struck he has challenged Congress to Back him in trying to move Moscow to meet his terms for nuclear arms reductions by giving him a new bargaining Chip in the form of the my missile to negotiate against what he described As a soviet nuclear Adas Reagan recalled monday president Nixon did much the same thing a decade seeking congressional approval of an anti ballistics mis Sile defence system to gain leverage against the soviet missile defences and reach an arms control Nixon reached that goal in 1972 with a treaty limiting missile defence sys tems to two for each and the american system was never fully de the president made Clear monday night that he regarded this same approach As one of his most persuasive arguments with Congress and the american both of which have become increasingly wary of his re quests for Sharp rises in military we do not want such weapons for their own he a secure Force keeps others from threatening us and that keeps the just As it also increases the prospects of reaching significant arms reductions with the and that is what we really unless we demonstrate the will to rebuild our strength and restore the military the since they Are so far have Little incentive to negotiate with Rea Gan apparently in an Effort to balance the my decision and to add credibility to his Public commitment to arms con the president revived several Confidence building measures that he proposed last june in such As Mutual Advance notification with Moscow of missile tests and major Mili tary greater Exchange of information in arms talks with to and possible improvements in the soviet american hotline to reduce the dangers of accidental nuclear but the Long anticipated my decision led to a new political democratic arms control advocates and Many Public supporters of an immediate nuclear freeze Are Likely to contest the presidents assertion that in virtually every measure of military Power the soviet Union enjoys a decided some democrats like Carl Levin of Michigan were also Quick to contend that the Reagan plan to deploy my missiles in 100 new silos in Wyoming violated the strategic arms limitation treaty signed by president Carter and Leonid Brezhnev in such normally pro military senators As John who Heads the arms services and Henry acknowledged that there were still tech Nical questions about the new my systems effectiveness and survival by one House Republican Richard Cheney of recalling that financing for the my system sur Vived last july by a 212to209 predicted a Tough fight with an Uncertain outcome for the presidents new my but Reagan and his political strategists have apparently decided that the my system May be the Best Issue on which to defend his military budget against critics and that this May be a Good test of Power for for members of Congress Are notably reluctant to deny any president a weapons system that he declares is vital to National Security and to Success in arms for All the it is a struggle that the president May by putting his personal prestige on the by drumming into the Public mind that Moscow has Long outspent Washington on and by making the my a critical Factor for his negotiations with the president has enhanced his he has also signalled that he is ready to engage in the of political fight that he won so narrowly and dramatically in 1982 on the issues of budget cutting and Axworthy seen As possible heir to Trudeau Christina one of Canadas leading political journalists and author of the recently released biography of the Liberal says employment and immigration minister Lloyd Axworthy is a Leader ship possibility for the he could come Back from his de Bacle with Doris Anderson and the status of she said in an he had a bad but he has that Al important physical pres ence and on a tour to pro Mote her says she found the ant Catholic anger against prime minister Pierre tru Deau expressed on open line programs in Western Canada such rage concentrated on one Man is not Likely to go away with i dont see either John Turner or Donald Macdonald escaping and this is Why she believes the party May end up looking to a newer such As As Trudeau Mccall Newman Doest share the conventional Wisdom that is preparing to step Down before the next Federal and one reason is what is going on in she attended the recent Al convention and talked to quite a few toe Eye feel they have a Ytry real fear that if Trudeau win lose their Quebec they Frances Russell say that base int so much a Liberal As a Trudeau and they believe that with him Quebec Premier Rene Levesque could throw a lot of votes the other Mccall Newman says she cant see Trudeau winning another but some within the such As former Pearson finance minister waiter Gor believe a fifth Victory is and she also notices a major change seems to have occurred in Ottawa at the top they Are acting like Treyve got it together that Between sex and five and the Lalonde plus the departures of people like former Cabinet Secretary Michael Pitfield and former Deputy finance minister Ian they Are putting Forward a new Mccal newmans Book was nearly five years in the exhaustively researched the of people inter viewed takes several pages the chronicles the history of the party f rom in until Jve calling of the it is a series of mini Bogra pies of the major movers and shakers of the party during the first Trudeau including such Liberal luminaries As Keith Jim Marc Turner and through its Mccall Newman endeavours to describe the party itself How the modern Liberal party was a creation of Mackenzie who saw it As a Bridge linking the major regions and forces in Canad an1 How both and Pearson maintained its Axis and finally How party has come close to destroying the entire Mccaja Newman says the Liberal party is now in a terrible but it has been in similar messes in when it nearly submerged under a rising and in when it nearly drowned in the Diefenbaker the Liberal party enduring strength the role Mackenzie King created for it despite the Vicissitudes of the remains to this there is a Consol National theory in Large con the tendency for disparate groups elites to come to Gether under the umbrella of one association in a Feder Al the vehicle for keen the lib it has been the party of French English until it was also the party of the of the West and the As even when it is Way Down in it has a tremendous recovery because it has a major hold on the memories of a lot of Mccall Newman Doest believe an other conventional Wisdom that in order to regroup and the liberals have to rebuild their shattered provincial Canada is in an age of leadership she the despite their provincial or per haps because of have not been that successful Mccall Newman believes it is now very unlikely that any provincial Premier can become prime there is More and More polarity and tension Between the Federal and provincial the tories Are seen As the party of the prove there May be an recognition on the part of canadians that on party be in Power in both Mccall Newman says Trudeau Central failing is that he Doest want people of substance around him from the other the Central failing of his government was its attempts to apply reason to a pro Cess which destroyed the morale of the senior civil service and exhausted ministers and bureaucrats alike with Bliz Zards of paper and never ending policy she also believes while John Turner is now definitely available to the he could be a disastrous it would be government by he thinks you can govern by just keeping up the old boys but i think Canada has moved beyond that kind of whoever replaces Trudeau will Haye to put together new she a lot of liberals will be influenced by the fact that wherever he Turner attracts a terrific amount of Sqq Newbury i i i i ;