Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - January 28, 1985, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free press january 7 brazilian president elect Tancredo Neves restoring Domestic morale while paying Economy is Neves focus by Peter Smith special to the free press now that Tancredo Almeida Neves has been elected president of Brazil the first civilian chief executive since 1964 the burning question what will he do while he campaigned speak ing to crowds that often numbered in the tens of he was deliberately vague on his pro it is that Al though political and social issues will be prominent in the new Lead ers the Economy must be his overriding concern Brazil has just begun to emerge from the worst recession in its and the world is watching anxiously for signs that the recovery will Contin and that it will be despite Tancre dds care not to commit it is possible to Trace the outlines of his Likely eco nomic based on a distillation of his speeches and a Reading of the National and International it is Clear that the new administration will preside if not a Sharp change in brazils economic in Broad the shift will be away from the fallout drive to Export that has characterized the Economy in the last few toward an emphasis on Domestic production and there Are several reasons for such a first and Brazil and brazilians have had enough of the recession and austerity of the past four years have hit the country very according to Marcilio Marques one of brazils leading the Standard of living of the nations Middle class declined by no less than 30 per cent in that Short the toll on the lower classes has been equally now that the Economy has begun to show signs of there is considerable social pressure to relax controls and allow some of that growth to spread within the a second reason has to do with the nature of that recent it has been almost entirely Export and the chief Market by far for brazilian goods has been the United the likelihood of increased protectionism and an economic slowdown in the and the difficulty of finding significant new markets elsewhere in the mean that Brazil cannot expect exports to grow by if at in a third reason has to do with the political metamorphosis Brazil is currently Tancredo Neves will be the nations first civilian president in 21 and the outgoing administration of Joao Baptista Figueiredo has become the Scapegoat for popular frustration and irritation with military and with an economic policy that has been formulated behind closed doors and has seemed All too often to favor the the new administration will be politically even though the new president has been elected Congress will have a much greater say in policy making than has been the Case since and there will be a More open feel to government under the popular mood will have a greater Impact on decision and there is thus bound to be a move away from a final Point is that Given that he was the candidate of a coalition of opposition parties and wants to appear to be placing As much distance As Possi ble Between himself and his Mili tary he will emphasize the health of something to which the Soldier presidents seemed indifferent in their Rush to having said All it is important to emphasize that the shift will be in economic but in Little Tancredo will continue his predecessors responsible position on the billion foreign which will leave him Little room to manoeuvre the role of the state in the econ omy will not increase Public spending must be held the attitude towards foreign invest ment will change Little Tancredo has already said that he welcomes such provided it is for the Benefit of above the new president will try not to prod inflation any higher than its 200plus per cent current he has already asserted several times that he re Gards inflation As brazils worst and that he wants to reduce his immediate concern must be to control it reducing it will have to wait at least another which Means that any program to stimulate Domestic spending must be Tancredo first task will be to preside Over the rescheduling of the foreign a process that has been delayed pending his March 15 Brazil will seek an agreement similar to those of mex Ico and Venezuela that will make annual servicing payments More manageable than has been the it would be a multiyear with several years Grace on principal reduced in Terest rate and Bank that breathing space will allow Tancredo to turn to the Domestic and begin his program of careful he will allow wages to Rise to the level of Infra Middle level and upper level income earners have been held Back in an Effort to restrain Infra that will probably boost in which he will tackle with essentially taking More from the wealthy and he use taxation to redistribute National which under the military govern ments has been obviously Chan need toward the that which he has stressed on several will obviously take time to but he will begin it he will also move quickly to Cut government and the Likely first targets will be the remain ing Export incentives and the army of technocrats that served the centralized military administrations no longer As necessary under an representative govern those and other changes should very quickly turn Brazil inward and galvanize its huge consumer Market among the top ten in the in terms of number of income All the Energy that turned Brazil into one of the worlds leading seemingly will turn to development of the Domestic mar which will be exciting to focus Mulroney Silky mediation style Edmonton prime minister Brian Mulroney is no but he obviously knows recent history Well enough to avoid the dreaded tru Deau this malady causes the sudden death of provincial governments held by the pms in most cases they expire in and the remains disappear in a puff of the Black Hole in the provinces eats away at the pms National and finally it collapses Mulroney remembers this Well enough to avoid weakening tory provincial governments All seven of not including sacred Campol Lowers in British in these Days of coast coast Many canadians especially westerners forget that the liberals looked equally Awe some after Pierre Trudeau first won in they had a huge National Majori and held As Many As six Provin Cial governments in new Bruns Nova Prince Edward Quebec and Trudeau hostility by the mid1970s All those Provin Cial Liberal governments were the victims of Trudeau Unin Terest or hostility remember that he called fellow Liberal Robert Bourassa a Hotdog there is Only one where the liberals have a realistic Hope of forming a govern for the the obvious Point is that it is far safer to Deal with friends than however annoying the friends might sometimes so Mulroney supports tory pre Miers and salves their Little the Best example came recently when the economic Council of Canada suggested that All resource reve Nues be included in the formula that determines equalization payments to have not this like the Crow rate or the theory of is so devilishly complicated that Only six canadians understand it at any one and they All forget it 10 minutes the Council wants to alter the whole system through direct reve nue sharing Between the provinces and at Complex formulas determine How much is and Ottawa pays the Money from general the Revenue sharing idea seems but it is actually a High explosive Alber and British one Ottawa official was quoted As saying that it is a great idea if you want to Start a the Council advocates starting this Reform by including All Revenue from the richest mean ing Oil and natural moving on later to lesser such As electric this Means that the Only resources already subject to special taxes and the Only ones held far below the world Price by Federal policy for 10 years would be subject to even More the liberals made a similar proposal in when Energy minister Marc Lalonde suggested that All resource revenues be thrown into the same Don braid in Alberta the Oil producing provinces de citing the Low prices that Al ready subsidized consuming prov when Lalonde finally acted through the National Energy pro he taxed Only Oil and he did not touch Hydro or any other resources More com Mon to Central this was pleasing enough to on Tario and Quebe cers certainly did not object but it is still remembered As a dirty trick in the three producing rough Justice thus their conservative govern ments Likely will not consider any change to the equalization at least until Oil and Gas escape those special for reasons As complicated As the these provinces feel that the current situation exacts a kind of rough because it Means that Ontario pays proportionately More to the have not when the economic Council resurrected the it looked like potential trouble for the Federal just the kind of problem that might again Divide the West from Central Canada and the when Peter Lougheed came Back from vacation in he saw the councils recommendation and hit the demanding that the body be Brian Mulroney and Pat his Energy politely stomped on the councils they said they preferred to work with the provinces rather than make major in a similar Trudeau government would probably have applauded the principle of fair thus raising havoc in the producing provinces and making Ontario leap with the old wars could have started Mulroney prefers to mediate this keeps provincial tory friends from his Throat and helps maintain them safely in the Man knows his Don braid is the Edmonton Jour nals political prime minister Mulroney Rita of the tourism Industry association of is convinced that business will Boom if Only we can spread the news about our devalued currency to Prospect Ive american her i were to the effect that they the americans just dont under stand what the differences on our dollars she plans to have her association visit shopping malls in South Dakota to spread the everyone looks at things from his own particular Roe for looks upon the lowered Canadian Dollar not Only As a Means of beckoning outsiders but regards it As a comfortable Gate to persuade canadians not to leave on holidays As when they stay she they spend their Money she will probably not understand if those of us who do not have a direct personal interest in the incoming tourist business do not like to have to spend As much As we have to in order to get a change of the problem in advertising our currency Exchange rate is that we Are duty bound to answer truthfully if we Are asked some other questions by our prospective one of these questions is How far their inflated dollars will go Here in win there is no question that Winni mainly because of its can offer specially and luxury restau rants of the kind that cannot be found in or South but Only in the number of tourists who can afford these restaurants is dwarfed merchants should slash their prices Fred Cleverley by the total tourist the real Money from tourists can be made by offering services and goods to the who look for reason Able hotel and reasonable food our devalued Dollar does us Little the Holiday inn in for charges for a double room on week the rate at the Holiday inn on Pembina Highway in Winnipeg is the Winnipeg hotel has a weekend special at a but that is exactly the same number of dollars As the Fargo accommodation every night of the supposing our american tourist wants to fill up his he can buy gasoline in Fargo for a the gallon contains for his Dollar to buy As much gasoline in Winnipeg As it does in Fargo the Price Here will have to drop to cents a perhaps our tourist will be Lucky and fill up at the Low end of one of our Price he will pay considerably even though he is spending dollars Worth Canad supposing our clutch ing his devalued Canadian dollars in his decides to visit a Modera Tel priced restaurant such As i chose this particular restau rant because there Are several and in North if he orders a Small Steak in Fargo he will pay Here the same Steak will Cost him a medium sized Steak in Fargo costs Here the same size costs if our tourist is really and orders a Large he will pay More in adjusted than he would have to pay in suppose our having disco Vered that his hotel is no that he has been taken to the clean ers on and has paid More for his Steak than he would have had to if he had stayed decides to doonesbury try to forget his sorrows by having a the and restaurant prices have already convinced him that he had better so he decides to buy a bottle instead of visiting a cocktail he goes to the Manitoba liquor commission and gets the worst Shock of suppose our tourist is used to shopping at Happy harrys bottle shop in grand for a medium priced such As wind he is used to paying Between and a depending on whether he buys it on Sale or he discovers that the same bottle costs him or in since Rye is so expensive he decides to go All and buy in grand Forks he buys Johnny again depend ing on for Between and Here he discovers that the same scotch Sells for Canad for which he has had to Trade in by now thoroughly he decides to go for which is really cheap at he has never paid More than for litres of sometimes he buys the Large bottle for As Little As when it is on he discovers that a bottle the same size Here Sells for and he keeps remembering that it Cost him to buy that Many cheap Canadian Dol Lar our tourist decides to return when he gets there he tells All of his friends not to believe those stories about dollars buying so much in n n n those City councillors Are Grea they Tell us that they cannot abide the presence of Alan Artinise on the City review commission because he is actively opposing assessment they ask the province to remove him from his the province the councillors then negotiate a they will accept Arti bist if he stops talking about City matters once a week on abcs information considering the ratings Csc has in the Peoples net work got the Best of the until the City struck its it is a Safe bet that most Winni Eggers did not even know Artinise was a radio show Pyou td0500n7dsay think patient will t2b faculty Lou not this historic 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