Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - June 22, 1987, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free press june Page 7 Chirac Hopes fade French gaullist loses ground to Mitterrand by Dick Leonard special to the free press Paris Frances gaullist prime minister Jacques Chirac is in deep his popularity rat ing has taken a nosedive during the past six months and he is experiencing grave difficulties in holding his Centre right govern ment his prospects of securing election As in next aprils which had earlier seemed so Are wan ing the Man who had presented himself As the shining Hope of the French righting is now threatened with the Fate of being branded As the Scapegoat for its it All started with so much prom despite the narrow parliamentary majority which his govern ment had secured in the legislative Chirac plunged into activity and enacted All the most important parts of his program within his first few months in Bills to loosen controls Over the to sell off stat owned companies and to restore the traditional French two ballot electoral system which the socialists had scrapped in favor of proportional were All pushed through the National As Sembly at record the Public reacted positively Chirac Star Rose and that of his main righting former prime minister Raymond who had opposed the Experiment of cohabitation with a socialist presi fell even in relation to president Francois Chirac seemed to be gaining the upper although the presi dents popularity was also Chirac largely succeeded in his aim of reducing the presidential Powers to a by last things began to go seriously the first mishap was Chirac ill fated interview with Arnaud de editor of the Washington in which he suggested that West Germany leaders thought that israels intelligence service might have fabricated the Hindawi a Syria inspired attempt to blow up an Al Al air liner due to take off from London Heathrow when Chirac denied what he had the Washington times published a verbatim text of the which left the French prime minis Ter looking both untrustworthy and lacking in no sooner was this affair behind him than Chirac suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of French plans for univer sity announced with a were hastily withdrawn in the face of widespread demonstrations which threatened to get out of reviving memories of the fateful 1968 student riots which almost toppled Charles de a series of Public sector strikes ranging from railway men to school which did nothing to improve Chirac fading in the the trial of Georges Ibrahim whose family were thought to be responsible for a series of bomb outrages last took place amidst widespread suspicions that Chirac government had secretly tried to do a Deal with the terror while All this had been taking Chirac had had several Dis Putes with in most of which he was forced to Back in tacit recognition that the presi dents viewpoint commanded greater respect from Public Opin it was impossible for him to provoke a showdown leading to the presidents resignation in the face of poll evidence that Mitterrand would decisively win a premature presidential but Chirac major worries flow from disunity within his own it is already evident that he will have to fight very hard to reestablish himself As the leading right Wing contender for the Barre has now fully recovered from his setback last year and is running Well ahead of Chirac in the it is True that exp resident Valery Giscard Destain is now probably out of the he is believed to have made a private Deal with bowing out of next years presidential Campaign in Exchange for receiving gaullist backing for successful bid for the chairmanship of the National Assembly foreign affairs commit yet no sooner was Giscard re moved from the fray than his for Mer Francois the Leader of the Republican and one of Chirac emerged As a Likely in an attempt to Stop the Chirac issued a peremptory ultimatum to Leotard Stop campaigning or quit being one of my the ultimatum rebounded on Chirac other ministers hastened to Back Leotard in order to defend their own Independence and once again Chirac was forced to Back Leotard remains in the but has not renounced his possible so there Are Likely to be three or four presidential candidates from the right next the left is much More despite his evident reluctance and his age Mitterrand will Proba Bly be pressed to run for a further especially if his poll rating remains if he does not the socialist candidate will be the almost equally popular Michel Romm submarine decision remains mysterious Chirac chances of becoming the next president of France Are less Good than they once a righting socialist with a Strong Appeal to centrist there of also be a communist candidate in the first but there is Little doubt that virtually All his votes will go to the socialist in the second and decisive judging from the experience of the last presidential the right and Centre candidates Are less Likely to cumulate their unless Chirac or Barre can establish a commanding position in the first he is unlikely to be the ultimate to get into that he will have to greatly improve on his recent performance As prime Dick formerly of the is a writer on Europe an by John Best special to the free press Ottawa making of Cabi net decisions is endlessly fascinating for students of the democratic Politi Cal for do you think the government might have arrived at its decision to build a Fleet of Uncle a powered submarines for the Ca Nadian Navy it would be Nice to be Able to find As everyone knows by the plan to Purchase 10 to 12 atomic attack subs was the Centrepiece of the defence White paper unveiled Here recently by defence minister Perrin the Way had been carefully pre pared through a series of briefings for leaks and interviews Over a period of several the message Canadas Security and sovereignty in the Arctic demanded nuclear the Only Craft capable of dealing with soviet or american submarines lurking under the Arctic Beatty still did not escape critic opponents of the plan said the which they estimated at up to twice the billion figure Given by would wreck the defence departments already tight they also raised the very telling question of Why Canada needs nuclear Given that they Are not going to be attacking intruders the simple presence of foreign subs in our Northern if that is what we need to can be monitored by other trying to resolve these weighty is far less fun than trying to figure out How the govern ment reached the conclusion that Canadas defence requires nuclear the catalyst has to have been beattys appointment to the defence portfolio last june with a Man Date from prime minister Brian Mulroney to produce the Long await de White get on with it and get it Mulroney told him in is full of intensity and a political Comer if there Ever was he had previously been Revenue minister and with As High a profile As it is possible to achieve in those relatively obscure until his appointment the idea of a nuclear submarine Fleet had hardly been considered in the defence from time to time there had been vague talk of purchasing maybe one or two such but that was the limit in most staff officers i became aware Only last december that a Large scale nuclear option was under serious at that time it was revealed that a committee had been established in the defence depart ment to study the this was separate from a task Force which had been at work for some time studying a conventional replace ment for Canadas three existing antiquated conventional somebody got to Beatty and sold him on the idea of going nuclear and going there is not even to be a mix of nuclear and conventional subs plans for the lat Ter have been consigned to the also in the wastebasket Are Long Range plans for a surface combat Fleet made up of 24 frigates and adopted As a Benchmark for the Navy about 10 years Canadas Navy of the future is now to be made up of 16 surface ships plus the 10 nuclear a published report a few Days ago said that Beatty stick handled his plan through Cabinet Over the opposition of external affairs minister toe according to the same Beatty was assisted off stage by Robert assistant Deputy minister for defence formerly of the prime ministers a High defence department offi Cial told reporters at a briefing when the White paper was tabled Exter Nal affairs was consulted throughout and there were no differences of opinion in a Pri vate this same official vigorously rejected a construction i put on his to the effect that external affairs and defence were in total there is a nuance there some pointing to the possibility of an interdepartmental struggle of some i also believe there was a struggle Between the pro nuclear submariners in the defence depart ment and exponents of a More conventional asked to comment on the official responded in a most Peculiar Way i think youre overplaying a few would like an Al surface Navy but not the part of the Story we have had dished up to us is the tip of the Beatty pushed decision for nuclear nuclear subs will take big bite of defence budget careful study is being Given to the possibility of building two or three nuclear powered which Are powerful Antisubmarine this a Large Issue and it cannot be decided imme in any the requirement for naval forces will continue to be related mainly to our Alliance the statement is from the White paper on defence issued by Paul Hellyer in the italics Are the 1964 paper is quoted to show the difference in thinking Between the time nuclear powered submarines were first officially suggested and when the govern ment has decided to buy billion Worth of this years White paper says Clear powered submarines Are essential to meet current and evolving Long Range Ocean surveillance and control requirements in the Atlantic and Pacific As Well As in the arc Given the vast distances in the three Ocean areas in which Canada requires Mari time the government has decided to acquire a Fleet of nuclear powered submarines to enhance the Overall effectiveness of the Canadian readers will notice that contributions to Canadas alliances Are not Given priority in the latest White there is Good reason for there Are no Alliance requirements for More nuclear powered this is one area where nato and the Warsaw pact Are in rough the Downside of spending so much on submarines of doubtful Benefit to collective defence is that the Purchase will eat up dollars badly needed depending on How fast the submarine program gets under the other needs of the armed despite the statements to the will simply be pushed Fred Cleversey the government has already stated that the final six naval frigates six that would bring Canadas Navy above the 20ship Mark not be it is the Cost of these six frigates and the replacement of the aging diesel submarines that is supposed to cover the Cost of the new nuclear Summa one View is that Canada is finally getting ready to fight the next rather than the and that nuclear subs will Force the to recognize our place in the until now it has been the stated aim of Canadas defence policy to produce forces that will keep another War from being the estimated costs Are no one expects Canada to acquire 10 or 12 nuclear submarines for the billion figure mentioned by defence minister Perrin or even for twice that if the Cost climbs As other priorities will have to be Cana Das air transport 707s will have to be flown Long beyond their planned at extra there will be less Chance of getting the six additional Long Range patrol aircraft and of modernizing the Fleet of medium Range tracker the White paper Points out that Canada lacks strategic theatre level Logis tics and medical it says that the acquisition of new tanks is we will need to buy More cf18 fighter to replace the ones that Nave we Are looking at the possibility of buying used preferably Only those flown to Church by if we buy the we May not have the Cash to buy even used fighter the forces argue saying the subs will be bought with Money already ear marked for conventional subs and extra it is quite possible the estimates Are All the above Are High priority they will not be the first to be the first item on the chopping Block will most plans to expand Canadas about the Only time the reserves gain any respectability at All is when White papers Are since the 1964 paper the theory has not this years White paper says that the Gap Between the reserves and the regular Force must be that the responsibilities allocated to reserves must be integrated into a total Force Back in when the government announced a commission to address the reorganization of it was stated that an objective of the commission will be to recommend the maximum possible degree of Inte Gration of regular and Reserve the 1970 White paper repeated the idea in different it the present Reserve Force has been designated As part of the forces in being and cannot be considered in isolation from the regular from 1970 to 1980 the reserves were mentioned As such in annual reports issued by the department of National for the past six reserves did not get a Sepa rate but were included in the re ports of the Mobile land and air when general Richard Rohmer was chief of he fought but never achieved a separate Reserve Cana Das reserves have always had the last bite of the budget the latest White paper makes no mention of a separate budget for reserves that cannot be raided by the regular that is Why the reserves will find their requirements the first to be removed from the priority the Purchase of nuclear submarines May mean that the extra personnel and new equipment for reserves mentioned in the White paper will not be translated into the Purchase May Well insure that the army and air Force Are put on the welfare line As doonesbury by Garry Trudeau Wuu to Umata local its sort of an ethical Reha Roget inmates to examine the moral implications of their not hard Zenep goin6totry its Totea ethics minimums cur Toh Arpene it criminals qutar5 ;