Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - April 30, 1990, Winnipeg, Manitoba Do d Winnipeg free press april Page focus Mim tary estimates surprising Washington under standing How much the soviet Union really spends on defence is one key to understanding its arms control diplomacy and the political strategy of president Mikhail Canadian and other Western policy makers must grasp both if they Are to react intelligently to current thanks to Gorbachev glasnost it is becoming easier to get closer to a credible which is Good news for the two main agencies that have the Job of trying to do so the Central intelligence Agency and the defence Intelli gence the Western Standard estimate is the one developed by Cia analysts 1517 per cent of the soviet Gross National the total of goods and services based on the Cia estimated soviet military spending in 1988 to be Between 135 and 165 billion in 1989 Gorbachev announced that soviet military in spending in 1989 was billion no corresponding 1989 Cia estimate has been made Public but it can be reasonably assumed to be close to its 1988 the chairman of the supreme soviets committee on Sci ence and education published his own estimate of this years soviet military spending 200 billion this puts it Well above presumed Cia a group of leading soviet Here for a con Ference comparing the economies of the debated Why with Cia analysts and Aca their conclusion was that it was caused by the same flaws that had caused the Cia to overestimate the productivity of the soviet econ based on Cia the governments official rating of the David Macdonald Washington editor soviet Economy has been that it is the second biggest in the world and about 50 per cent of the size of the speaking to report ers after the soviet economist Victor Belkin said the soviet Economy really is at Best just Over half the size of the Cia a Low estimate would be 14 per cent of a High estimate be 28 per i think the soviet Gnu is not second but seventh or behind Brit Ain and this startling estimate led to an Oleg who directs the Institute of economics of world socialist systems and is a specialist on the East blocs said the True figure for soviet military spending is 2025 per cent of not the Cias 1517 per there should be some red faces around the Small world of soviet studies in the United states if this is the Cia has endured constant complaints that its estimates of so Viet defence spending were too from complaints have been that Cia estimates were too they Are Likely to be Crow once they hear about such claims from soviet for the new Esti mates and the frankness of the visiting soviet economists will prove something quite in a Book published last Edward Jay Epstein argued is just another Kab disinformation trick and that the soviet Economy is being falsely represented As weak As part of a deliberate and skilful Campaign to Advance soviet Politi Cal Bogomolov said that official published figures in Moscow about so Viet military spending Are not too Low Many kinds of expenditures were not for the expenditures for pensions and salaries for the military people Are underestimate the expenditures for science and technology it is very difficult to separate the investment and allocation for our civilian and our military sometimes we Are dealing with dual use official estimates dont take into account the artificial Levels of our prices for Means of production and on military our prices for such goods Are too Low and it is necessary to Correct the official estimates to get the real figures for our military expend but the magnitude of this correction is not yet Clear because we Are awaiting More detailed information about the military expenditures of the soviet Union and about the breakdown of these expenditures and about also the methodology which was in order to assess these Bogomolov is a Deputy in the Peoples which has been seeking greater information from the soviet government so that it can better carry out its oversight role Over government whatever the real figure for so Viet defence expenditures May the visiting economists seemed to agree that it will have to be Cut if the parlous state of the entire econ omy is to be one of the problems posed by a Large Alloca Tion of resources to the military turned out to be the question of who gets priority on railway with the answer almost inevitably being the one effect of this priority was revealed by economist Vladimir an agricultural special who said that soviet Farmers Harvest 90 million potatoes but Only 24 million of them reached soviet dinner one cause is Lack of rail cars and the shunting into Sid Ings of potato filled cars to let troop trains rumble another is Lack of Well designed storage facilities to keep potatoes in edible condition and the overwhelming of existing storage facilities when potatoes cannot even make it from collection Point into rail Cut spending evidence that soviet defence spending is being Cut came during a joint Ciandia report to the joint economic committee of it said that in soviet spending on weapons went Down by six to seven per troop strength went Down by and that the Overall spending decline was four to five per a Cia estimate in november put the 1989 soviet Overall defence spending decline at per Dennis acting Deputy director of the said soviet troop concentrations along that traditional area of the chinese had been As had troop Levels in at the current he All soviet troops would be out of Mongolia by the rate of reduction on the sino soviet said seemed to be aimed at maintaining a Strong defence but reducing the perception and reality of capability to under take credible offensive operations inside the territory of the Peoples Republic of in Eastern Europe and the soviet Western military withdrawals of troops and equipment were being carried out in line with the promises of unilateral action made by Gorbachev at the United nations in half the tanks and three quarters of the heavy guns and aircraft were Al ready according to Dia assessments that will have been heavily based on the photographic products of spy old gang and new gang have the makings of political parties it has Long been the convention Al Wisdom that Winnipeg voters Are opposed to political parties in municipal the conventional Wisdom May be wrong the ice and its and win in suggest that certain kinds of political organizations can attract perhaps one Neces sary condition is that municipal Par ties be municipal and not simply the Junior Wing of some provincial or Federal party for it is surely the latter that largely shape and Condi Tion Public views of political recent events in Ottawa Send some very mixed messages about in the one Case you have a party apparent inability to Deal with someone like Lucien who comes across As a Quebec separatist masquerading As a Federal Cabinet minister the Rule Here seems to be that you can Embarrass a government at will if you have a William Neville at City Hall Large enough cohort in caucus who share your however inappropriate they May on the other hand we have the Case of Kilgour and expelled from the conservative Cau Cus because they would not support the goods and services though defended by government spokesmen and some editorialists in further exal tation of prime ministerial the defence probably does not sit Well with Many Many see the dissident maps being punished because they would not Check their convictions at the caucus As has already been suggested in this that particular concern May be mis what is More offensive is the notion of members being expelled for opposing a policy they had no part in if the National parties were democratic in setting their poli democratic conventions might prevail the minority would be expected to accept the majority decision or go that is closer to the existing municipal municipal As win has can be created at the grassroots level and their poli cies can be determined jointly by the grassroots and the elected office lacking a parliamentary sys municipal parties simply could not function As the disciplined and monolithic National parties on the present Council there Are the makings of two the survivors of the old Independent caucus and win the old gang and the new win presents the easier Aris ing from grassroots frustration with the particularly the develop ment of previous win and its endorsed candidates articulated positions on a number of policy questions in some More it also led the attack against the old gangs perceived secrecy and Lack of a so successful was this attack it seems to traumatized both the victors and the Van since the which ran As a has seemed fearful of being seen As a except in the planning committee where it has a win has generally been slow to Lay out Broad policy options to which other councillors might win seems anxious to be democratic and open and to be seen to be these it inclines to Public hearings on with the danger that it will be paralysed by the loudest or the last voices if you want to be taking charge has its wins members have the ability to present Council with some Clear policy options what is not so Clear is whether they have the toughness and discipline to handle the criticisms that go with having the councillors associated with the old gang present a different one or two of them May have As much in common with win As they do with one another and several publicly pledged to caucus no More after the but a number of these councillors have genuine policy concerns and Strong views on issues like they can hardly find the present state of affairs very satisfactory and it would be perfectly natural for them to be meeting on issues that concern the question about them is whether they Are yet prepared to come into the open As a group and whether they Are prepared to put the emphasis on offering a coherent set of policy options rather than on simply cobbling together a Council majority for the purposes of there is nothing wrong with groups of like minded councillors actively working together if they Are open about doing there would be much to commend in a with two neither having a Majori competing for support on the basis of alternative policies and such Competition would not eliminate Ward issues and other parochial concerns but it could alter the context in which they were and whether this Council is up to this Challenge is by no Means but As Long As councillors Are setting policy on the basis of swapping per Sonal then personal favors Are going to drive and those dear and gentle voters who think of 29 Independent councillors As a sort of political heaven will be paying for those of with everyone no Price is too High to keep Quebec support traitor one who is false to his Alle Giance to his Sovereign or to the government of his that is the dictionary definition Liberal leadership candidate John Nunziata is using to support his declaration that Quebec separatists Are traitors to Canada and Are no better than the racists and the bigots who Are afraid of More Quebec the Toronto Globe and mail saying that Nunziata is attaching labels As though it were alien to the Canadian Way to use the legitimate Means available to achieve a peaceful political end and As though honorable political dissent were in the same league As racial or religious if this is Nunziataa threshold of the Globe advises let us considering that a dedicated Quebec separatists objective is the destruction of Canada As we now know it is difficult to imagine what threshold of treachery would cause concern in the Ivory Tower of Canadas self declared National the Nunziata incident shines some Light on All of those who would attempt to Tell canadians what they should and what they should think about their it is interesting that Nunziata made his remarks during a meeting of All leadership candidates and that not one of the other candidates immediately jumped to the podium to refute it is possible that these candidates were glued to their chairs be cause the which included voting had left no doubt it supported what Nunziata was Only when safely out of reach did the other leadership candidates Rush to the Tele vision microphones to denounce Nunziata Fred Cleverley and his the it turned were outraged at what Nunziata had had no thoughts of calling separatists Trai tors and disagreed even More with Nunzia tas complaints to the effect that everyone was afraid to Call a Spade a shovel when dealing with the easily bruised feelings of French writing in the National Peter Brimelow said there was an illustration of a remarkable contemporary Paradox to be found in recent actions by Ontario and he was being hammered because some of its communities had declared themselves unilingual English even though the whose French speaking population had dropped to per had been induced to declare itself officially Quebec Premier Robert who had called the action of the Ontario communities utterly deploy had meanwhile reaffirmed Quebec status As unilingual Brimelow Canadas pundits dont seem to find this Bourassaw words and actions or even deploy there Are other Lucien Bou one of the most powerful of prime minister Brian Mulroney Quebec Lieuten was not rebuked by Mulroney when he said that Canada could have to choose be tween Quebec and Bouchard said he was offended by Nunziataa which he considered an insult to the 40 per cent of que Beckers who voted yes in the sovereignty association Bou Chard said he had the if Nunziata were half of Quebec would be in the situation is even if through some Miracle the Meceli Lake Accord was the rift Between French and English Canada will Quebe cers have declared themselves bruised by the and fully justified in pursuing a course of Many English Canad like will continue to consider separatists As or at least As Trai Brimelow suggests that a greater threat comes from elite politicians of All professors and the press can agree almost unanimously on an Absurdity that Canada is opposed Only by grassroots of this grassroots sentiment was de scribed in the Toronto Globe and mail As the Wolf packs of Brimelow argues what Many canadians that official bilingualism has it was supposed to prevent the inexorable emergence of Quebec As an Independent French speaking brime Low was the spectre of death itself to Canadas political since left leaning coalitions that have governed Canada through much of this Century depended on cultivating a Quebec bloc Canadas Liberal elite has no other solution except bilingualism to so it continues its ritual obeisance to and its reflexive suppression of any English speak ing the real Impact of the bilingualism argues and part of the reason it is still so blindly is its effects on the perquisites and official Brimelow absolutely requires that the government bureaucracy be run to a significant extent by people who Are themselves in a country like which is not remotely bilingual and where government takes up to half the Gross National this amounts to massive social if Brimelow is it should come As no Surprise that John Nunziata is being at tacked for calling separatists if 40 per or More of Quebec population supports sacrificing truth can not be too High a Price to keep and its voting intact within doonesbury by Garry Trudeau n Bloom 15 off the what dip Bush bring us but poverty and hom55 tue but stir we must 7ak6 our cow a Back no much ;