Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - September 7, 1990, Winnipeg, Manitoba 63 d Winnipeg free press september Page focus great Divide Marks Manitoba politics by Frances Russell what Are the numbers in Mani the party strategist Chuck the numbers dont mean that in any other provincial or Federal the conservatives comfortable 13point Lead Over the liberals 44 per cent to 31 per cent reported in yesterdays augus Reid poll and confirmed by private party surveys would translate into an easy majority Victory the smart Money is on that Hap but there is a doubt that has the tories that because Manitoba is a political it has an ethnic and class base to its party preference that can actually be coloured on a the wealthy Southwest Anglo Saxon and mennonite is one Reali traditionally the poorer Northeast Manitoba Rich ethnic mosaic is the historically the Liberal a Halfway House which rises and Falls Accord ing to the degree of disillusion with the two ideological parties of the left and shaves both Manitoba is a aging society where ethnic and class Divi Sions Are relatively whatever the enormous Riding Riding pluralities the tories can wrack up in their southwestern Victory or defeat always hinges on a hand Ful of a few thousand voters in a string of swing constituencies straddling the geographic political even in the post1988 Lonpo Laried political the parties own based on at least a 10point Overall Provin Cial show that the conserva Tives could take As few As 27 seats a minority or As Many As 32 a three seat Manitoba political peculiarity has a Long and impressive during the 20year period of Polit ical polarization in Manitoba from 1969 to when All the flux was Between the conservatives and the new the political map was a cartographers its Only feature was a Diagonal line beginning at a Midway Point on the Manitoba Saskatchewan Border in the Northwest and running South eastward to bisect Winnipeg and terminate in the Southeastern Cor Ner at the Ontario and Minnesota the Northeast was coloured nip Orange the tory Small shifts a succession of five elections were decided by tiny vote shifts in the 10 or so Ridings along that Diagonal the with their huge Over representation in the South and had to have at least a five Point jump on the nip in popular vote just to stay in for the conservatives enjoyed an 11point advantage in the popular vote Over the nip 49 per cent to 38 per cent but captured Only 33 of the Legislatures 57 had just voters switched sides in Only six constr the nip would have Hung on to Power with 28 in the nip boasted Only a three Point spread in the popular vote Over the conservatives 47 per cent to 44 per yet it translate Filmon in an election debate unhappy voters often Park their ballots with the de into 34 had voters marked their ballots differently in six swing the conserva Tives would have stayed in office with 29 a Bare the difference Between govern ment and opposition in the 1986 election was even More the new democrats won 30 seats with 41 per cent of the com pared to 26 seats taken by the conservatives with 40 per cent of the vote and one seat by the Liber als with 14 per cent of the had 208 Manitoban in James and Swan River voted tory instead of new the Manitoba legislature would have been in deadlock 28 new 28 conservatives and one in the 1988 five Ridings were won by margins of under 200 while another seven were determined by fewer than 500 the 1988 election at the same but very per haps a the under Sharon Depolarized Manitoba by surging from one to 20 Carstairs took advantage of a political Point in on the one hand was a tired nip government dogged by huge tax car insurance hikes and an impression of fiscal on the other was the fear of a anti human tory regime dedicated to serving business by making War on the the Liberal surge grabbed far More from the new democrats than it did from the of the 20 Liberal seats scored on election Only six came from the conservatives Fin eluding Carstairs River Heights originally snatched in four teen were seized from the new in the constituencies the liberals took from the tories Are the most liberals tend to get caught in the Middle the according to pollster is that Manitoban have not yet forgiven or forgotten their anger at the at the same the tory spectre of lean and mean conjured up by Sterling Lyons 197781 Rule has been banished by two years of consensual minority conservative govern especially the male Side of the believe there is no hidden tory they by a two to one margin an exact reversal of 1988 the leadership competence of Premier Gary Filmon Over lib eral Leader the liberals reemergence on the provincial scene has refashioned the electoral map into a number of political the original South West Northeast split still applies to Rural and Northern according to the Reid the tories retain their customary Hammer lock on farm voters at 51 per compared to 24 per cent for the liberals and 23 per cent for the in the tories racked up 45 per cent of the the liberals had 26 per cent and the has a Politi Cal universe of its its As though someone with a using Portage and main As the Drew a series of concen tric circles radiating out to the perimeter the Centre is strictly a Liberal nip As the Ripples Widen towards the affluent the duels be come More and More Between tories and regardless of whether the suburbs Are Northeast or the poll has a virtual dead heat in the the tories stand at 39 per the liberals at 37 and the nip at in the last the liberals took Winni Peg with 42 per cent of the popular followed by the tories at 33 per cent and the nip at 23 per University of Manitoba political scientist Tom Peterson is Canadas leading scholar on this provinces political history and he says that what is happening in Manitoba in 1990 is really a return to this provinces traditional elec toral Manitoba ethnic mosaic except for the 20year period of torn do always been a contest Between liberals and new the dominant Ottar i Orange which settled this province Between 1870 and 1890 and preempted its Best agricultural land and business opportune remains wedded to the social and economic certainties of both Small and Large Appeal to Hopes it continually reinforces its Hege Mony by appealing to the aspirations of All the upwardly Mobile poor and near poor within the other ethnic the old ethnic dynamic is still operative in Manitoba it is the Liberal party which is still the most attractive to the new Immi Peterson in that Means the immigrants from the Indian subcontinent and South East the liberals have Al ways been the most skilful in attracting new ethnic As evidenced by Kildonan Liberal la Gulzar Cheema and Winnipeg North my Rey Pautak in that Manitoba is show ing its kinship with in the bastion of Liberal both federally and Provin has been the new immigrant Peterson says liberals and new democrats May have to wait a very Long time to penetrate the tory fortress of southwestern in a Static provincial the Southwest is the most eternal of you could say it is a Complete reversal of the Early immigration Waves of the turn of the the new people All went 16 the Rural they All gravitate to the Manitoba Rural South West has the lowest ethnic influx it also has the oldest and the least Mobile of Manitoba Popula Peterson warns that conserva Tive support Overall is a function of the relative decline and stagnation of Manitoba in Canada Means that this province is Likely to grow More conservative As time it is a fact that As people get they tend to become More Small it is a univer Sal the nip can Challenge that from time to based on their social legislation and appeals to the Well being of the but the style and emphasis of the current Manitoba nip is not geared to meeting the social conservatism of the that so Cial conservatism is Best expressed in the social phenomenon of South Western the change in election tactics wrought by television and the and vent of compute directed voter manipulation also works against parties like the liberals and new who have fewer dollars to Peterson political theatre the skills of theatrical the the sophisticated and the ability to find what the voters want to hear and repeat it Back to the nip cant win the nip was Fine when it was dealing with a Walter Weir or a Sterling Lyon former tory pre Miers of the unalloyed right but Filmon int either a Weir or a this is a very sophisticated a very sophisticated a its much harder to take it Peterson says Manitoban cannot be seen As total Mavericks and All provinces Are Ontario is Canadas the new wave and quite a bit further along than the rest of we May not be but we Are certainly not As Western As Saskatchewan and we Are probably moving More in the direction of Peterson says the liberals Are the least predictable of the three parties because they operate As a Halfway House for voters who Are unhappy with either the tories or the new for a lot of going All the Way across the abyss from nip to tory or from tory to nip is just too so they Park their votes with the liberals because it seems As a Liberal especially in a province like Mani Toba that has been polarized for so Many is particularly Vola election coverage brings the inevitable complaints its been a month since Premier Gary Filmon called next tuesdays provincial election and the questions readers have asked about free press coverage of the Campaign speak for several callers does pre Mier Gary Filmon rate so Many including a front Page color shot on 21 of the Premier at a its the same old tory said one caller who refused to give his the free press is a big business and promotes the pro business tories no matter your paper supports them on the front Page and on the editorial several other callers were so Many photos of Liberal Leader Sharon car stairs being used to illustrate election stories every time i pick up the paper theres a big picture of is the free press trying to elect a Liberal government asked Charleswood resident Gwen other readers were convinced nip Leader Gary doers picture was appearing More often than the other Reader George Griffith observed youre sure giving doer More exposure than the Hes getting so much Ink that in beginning to wonder if the free press Doest to improve his chances in the Hope of getting another minority those refrains Are without every election generates reaction from party followers during the heat of political conclude that the party they support somehow int being fairly treated or Hast received its fair share of is it possible to convince them that Treyve seen our election coverage through politically clouded glasses i was on holidays for two weeks of the Campaign but i went through the files and examined free press photo coverage begin Ning the Day after the election not every Day was As balanced Barry Mullin ombudsman As yesterdays paper when election news pages contain a photo of doer returning from campaigning at the a photo of Carstairs and Filmon at the Manitoba chamber of Commerce debate and a photo of All three leaders prior to a debate on native the photo facts for the past month show 11 photos of Filmon were nine on inside pages and two color shots on the front Page 15 photos of Carstairs All on inside pages and 14 photos of doer were All on inside of 41 miscellaneous Campaign shots eight involved the three the liberals and one the assessment fewer photos of Filmon and the conservatives were used but the two front Page photos during the Campaign seemed to the balance the to our photo coverage seems to have been As was the Over All news coverage of this election Ive received three Calls about news cover two from readers who wanted to Point out How silly reporting errors weaken the credibility of other your Lack of care and attention to detail weakens your whole said Iris calling Herold Driedger the highways min ister is an our mistake set the record straight that Driedger is a Liberal running for reelection in Seine River and the minister is Albert the other caller noted we had placed nip candidate Conrad Santos in the wrong an our mistake corrected that Les a worker on doers Cam also mentioned the Santos error when he telephoned and noted what he termed some disturbing trends in coverage of the nip Campbell said he didst want to come across As being Overly critical of the papers Overall but he took Issue with reporting techniques in some election stories and Lack of coverage of two recent doer Campbell noted that a Story 25 said doer claimed the Filmon government underspend on Day care by million this in a 2 Story the same reporter used the word said when a tory Cabinet minister accused the former nip government of raising personal taxes Over 100 per cent and wasting millions of dollars through Crown said Campbell using words like claim and charge Are a lot different than using he said readers would certainly notice the Subtle Riffence Between nip claims and others pronouncements of Harry Rachlis put his concerns about a front Page Story on 24 about the health care system in a he noted the Tenor of the article implies users and providers of health services Are United in supporting some system of user Only at the end of the Story do readers learn some people dont want to see changes to neither did Rachlis like the anecdotal nature of the interviews nor the careful wording used to report How pollster Greg Mason was quoted on the Rachlis called Mason who confirmed Mason also confirmed to me that he had no polling data and that he had Given the reporter a personal reporter Bruce Owen said his assignment was to spend half a Day talking to people in hospitals and clinics for their views on the use of user fees and the healthcare i was As surprised with the reaction because i thought there would be negative reaction to user Owen said he was working on an evening deadline and added the Mason information after he had sent a draft of his Story to the night he said he should have made it Clear Mason was expressing a personal Owen also said Hes heard from several readers who told him the Story was bang some Rural readers who have wondered How the free press will be Able to cover the provincial election Campaign in wednesdays newspaper Given the earlier deadlines for the morning paper can rest get the same product As City circulation director Ron Keith said three presses will Roll at the usual press Start for the second Winnipeg were not exactly sure How this will Impact on All our subscribers but we feel three quarters of country subscribers will still get morning the other 25 per cent will get it later that said for readers thinking Why cant it be that Way All the Well that s another doonesbury by Garry Trudeau in the it hja5 cant Kex Jpn to Hap pen it in saudi Arabia i ;