Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - September 28, 1992, Winnipeg, Manitoba John Datoe focus Winnipeg free press september september by elections Brin bad news for grits by Michael Kinnear special to the free press if the by elections recently held in cres cent Wood and Portage la Prairie were repeated exactly in All the seats in the next general there would be no change in the distribution of there would be a change in Manitoba electoral because the two by elections had an unusually High drop in the Liberal the two by election constituencies Are about As representative As one could find a bit of Rural a smallish part of Winnipeg Core some suburban and a Wel Todo bit of Wes Central Winni there is also an Indian Reserve in the Portage so some aboriginal voters can be identified in the one generalize about a general election from a couple of by elections and the lowest turnout 54 per cent in 61 per cent in Crescent Wood May have skewed the the turnout figures Are very close to by election average and past Manitoba by elections have proven moderately Good guides to following general in the past 25 there have been 19 provincial the average turnout in these by elections has been per cent below that of the following general the turnout in the two recent by elections was Down per cent from 1990 in cres and 110 per cent in most exactly the Normal figure for Bielec Tion regarding the change in party it is convenient to split the by elections into two those held when the nip were in office and those when the pcs were in office not counting the two recent when the nip was in the pc vote was almost unchanged in How the liberals fared an average of per cent better in by ejections held during nip and the nip did per cent worse than in following general when the pcs were in the pc vote was stable while the nip vote was per cent lower than the following general elec the liberals did per cent better in the and Small parties or inde Pendents picked up the Avis Grays Crescent Wood Victory not As promising As it so we would conclude no matter who has been in the pc vote has been Sta ble the nip vote has dropped moderately when the nip have been in and much Mote so when the pcs have been in of the liberals have picked up most of the nip if this pattern had been followed in the recent the liberals would have gained substantially from the and somewhat from the especially in Given the economic prob lems of that but in these two the pc vote was per cent off their 1990 which is a poorer result for the pcs that in past the real losers were the whose vote dropped even More than that of the by per the liberals have normally fared better in by elections than in general so these results suggest a significant change in Liberal the modest gain for the nip is even More there has not been a single Bielec Tion since the 1966 general election where the nip did better than in the following Gen eral so the Rise in the nip percent age in 1992 compared with 1990 suggests that the nip will boost their Overall perform their per cent gain in 1992 contrasts with an average 19661990 loss of per the nip had Small pluralities in Many seats in so their vote gain might simply give them bigger plural but if new in the Crescent Wood Sid Green took per cent of the Proba Bly a bit More came from the liberals than from the though both parties lost some thing to his biggest vote came in polls where the Liberal vote dropped off most from 1990 and his worst showing came where the Liberal vote remained Sta old allegiances som of greens voters May revert to their old allegiances in the next provincial but the main strength ening of the Likely to have a lasting because the nip vote and that of the liberals one might wonder if we Are seeing the Early stages of reversion in this province to alignment which characterized the 1970s and when the liberals racked up quite a few but won hardly any it would be far too soon to count the Liber als but they do face a series of obstacles in this their vote is fairly evenly which gives them an occasional big win As in but much More often a series of close the whose Vot ers Are More particularly in Low population has been the chief beneficiary at the expense of the in the 1990 the nip and liberals each took 28 per cent of the vote but the nip won 35 per cent of the and the liberals Only 12 per if there were an even movement of opinion across the nip would have 31 per cent of the vote and 35 per cent of the the liberals 23 per cent of the vote and 12 per cent of the seats and the pcs 37 per cent of the vote and 53 per cent of the this projection is favourable to the but in the past our voting system has often worked against that party and it has almost always worked against the these by elections results suggest that our elec toral system needs quite a bit of revising to make it reflect the voters Michael Kinnear teaches history at the University of if Quebec nationalists have their the whole country will suffer says a new the High Cost of divorce the Royal Bank of Canada made Public on Friday an economic study of the benefits and costs of Canadian Unity or disunity which predicts a substantial economic Cost if que Bec becomes this is a partial text of the Banks summary of its during the course of our constitutional de several groups have proposed what they believe to be the real Dollar costs to Ca Nadian families of the breakup of our coun we believe that most of these estimates Are unrealistically they assume that a common a common a common International Trade policy and a stabilizing fiscal Structure can be maintained at that these vital economic institutions can be negotiated in spirit of Harmony and even they As sume that a country can die in our we have found no Case of a nation coming apart without we have found no record of a smooth and easy our review of any historical examples of National disunity shows that High and even tend to dominate decision making when the future of a country is at in the exist ing institutional such As the have often even in the More peaceful Case of Singapore and malay Sia in the countries were unable to maintain a shared currency despite negotiating with Good intentions and Strong Domestic support for preserving their Mone tary economic scars it has been said that those who do not learn from the mistakes of history Are Des tined to repeat history tells us that the breakup of a nation is protracted and it leaves deep economic our economic analysis suggests that a United Canada can have a promising we already have one of the highest Stan Dards of living in the by the year a United Canada can expect to increase that level by More than 11 per a United Canada can expect to create almost Mil lion new jobs in this a United can Ada has dramatic a fragmented Canada has a very different we have attempted to estimate the Cost of such a Here Are the factors we believe Wouldhave a negative Impact on investment in a fragmented Canada As a on Peoples income and the Avail ability of q the Cost of uncertainty the Cost to us All resulting from lower investor Confidence in Canadas stability and q the Cost of two currencies the Cost of moving from one of the worlds strongest currencies to regional currencies that would inevitably result from political q the Cost of higher interest rates the higher Cost of Money for investment and Job creation that would reduce our Lon term economic q the Cost of National economic swings the Cost of losing the stabilizing role of a co National fiscal policy to even out the fluctuations that occur in any National regional imbalances q the Cost of regional imbalances the Cost of losing the ability to smooth out eco nomic cycles in Canada q the Cost of debt and deficits the Cost of failing to address government debts and deficits As a result of a weaker Overall econ q the Cost of losing International influence the Cost of diminishing global influence for a diminished q the Cost of disruptions to trading arrangements including the Cost of a weaker International bargaining q the Cost of a weakened financial sys tem the Cost to Canadas depositors and Bor rowers resulting from Region ligation and q the Cost of tax inefficiencies the Cost of disharmony and overlaps in our taxation these factors outlined above would inevitably result in a decline of real investment in a fragmented Canada a deterioration in our Standard of invest ment would fall in a recession like pattern with a possible decline of about 15 per cent during the first two the recession of the Early 1990s has left the Canadian econ omy in no position to withstand this additional an investment collapse of this magnitude would result in a cumulative de Cline in investment of More than 25 per cent Between 1989 and although this is a severe we Are still being conservative in our in other periods of economic invest ment has declined by a similar since there have been five periods of significant investment declines with an average per cent fall in Al most the contraction could be much greater in an environment where the country economic and political infrastructure were falling financial markets would react adversely and would demand heavy premiums for financing Canadian in unlike previous con this time there would be no Quick the dislocation and inefficiencies that would arise from a fragmented Canada would restrain any ensuing recovery in in we believe that it could take five years to bring investment Back to its Start ing More suffering based on this investment canadians Standard of living by the year 2000 would be about 15 per cent lower than if the country had remained United and even 5 per cent below its current on a fairly conservative the loss of real income to an Ordinary Canadian could be As High As about a year and All Canadian families would be the newly unemployed would suffer even with an unemployment rate that could be As High As 15 per the economic Gap Between Canada and the United states would Widen Canadas Standard of already 10 per cent below could become More than 28 per cent our unemployment rate could be As much As eight per cent higher than in the United this Gap with our closest neighbor and largest Trad ing partner would give Many canadians a powerful incentive to solve their income and career problems by moving to the United we estimate that More than one and a Quarter million canadians would leave the country by the end of the canadians Are being asked to buy a pig in poke no one should vote yes in next months constitutional referendum just because Brian Jean Audrey Mclaughlin says so or even because Gary Filmon tells him by the same no one should vote no because Preston Man Ning or Sharon Carstairs Advance what appear to be logical reasons for so every Canadian should vote yes or no on the basis of individual assessment of the Deal and individual opinion As to whether it is Good or bad for the no one should vote yes because of the threat of being labelled Uncan Adian if he does or no because such a vote looks like a heaven sent Opportunity to even with Brian Mulroney for other things or to Tell Quebec to Buzz of no one should vote yes because he thinks that by so doing he will get rid of constitutional wrangling in this country or vote no in the Hope that just one More round of negotiations will produce a More acceptable pack votes should be cast based on an Intelli gent understanding of what is being voted in practical this is going to be darned difficult to for the government is in no hurry to Tell anyone exactly what is in the my member of who is also a member of the government promised through her that a Legal text of the agreement would be in nearly ten Days in still what i have is a third i confess that i will be surprised if the full Legal text of the agreement is available by the time we Are asked to vote on i have no doubt that the bureaucrats Are working but i also suspect that the government has no intention of repeating the mistake it with the Meech Lake which was to produce a text and give every one ample time to digest it and to decide what was wrong with i suspect that we will be asked to vote on a warm and fuzzy feeling by saying we Are doing what is right for i also suspect that this is part of the que Bec strategy that former prime minister Pierre Trudeau has called can Ada has been blackmailed into a vote on october a Date which has no significance other than it happens to be the Day on which Quebec threatened to vote on As things have turned out the Quebec vote will not be on but on the same agreement the rest of us will be voting too bad the vote could not have waited until we All got a Chance to digest and come to sensible conclusions about what we Are voting it is quite Clear that we will not be voting on a truly reformed and elected the Only absolute Power the new Senate will have will be that held by its tiny group of declared francophone members to Block for Ever any Laws they deem to be detrimental to French culture and part of the new Senate Deal is the addition of More seats to the House of Quebec gets one member for every if the same formula was applied elsewhere Alberta should get 34 but will get Only British Columbia should get 44 but has settled for the with a million More people than que should have 106 members in the House of it will get whose population has been shrinking steadily for has been guaranteed 25 per cent of the seats in the House of commons this is being cast in the draft text reads that Amend ments to provisions of the Constitution re lated to the Senate will require unanimous consent once the current set of amendments comes into ditto for any changes affecting the House of not much wonder Quebec what a veto Power Over future change nowhere is the agreement so warm and fuzzy As when it deals with Indian self gov there is the sweeping declaration of the inherent right to and talk about these native governments be coming part of the three Levels of govern ment for the draft text is woefully Short of details about what this right what Power the Indian governments will exercise and who will pay the in it looks like the worst Case scenario in which in the will mean whatever the indians say it then there is the Small matter of the 15 items and subjects the first ministers talked but decided not to these in clude the taxing Powers of the Federal and provincial the Export of Natu ral resources and the requiring of notice about changes in Federal legislation respect ing equalization then there Are the eight matters which were but which could not be re including How future Federal Provin Cial consultations will be what input the indians will have in intergovernmental agreements respecting the division of pow the participation of indians at future first ministers time limits on the joint sittings of the House of commons and the and any other consequential amendments we Are not voting to accept an we Are voting on a Progress re a report which locks in certain matters which should be the subject for future negotiation and which will severely restrict the next round of constitutional Canada will not disappear if the report is nor will the constitutional process be Complete if it is the agreement is said to be the Best Compromise Given the restraints under which it was the biggest was artificially imposed by the Quebec what this restraint has produced is from what material is the Best for doonesbury by Garry Trudeau that Poyo Shawany How Hast you goop mow officer i whats 60awy fam ii ;