Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - May 9, 1998, Winnipeg, Manitoba World saturday free May a17 philippine election poll smorgasbord newspapers serve up daily Cornucopia of surveys by Dan Lett staff reporter Manila it has become a ritual for election mad filipinos to grab As Many news papers As they can each morning to see who is winning the Battle of the reelection Public opinion and each they Are treated to a virtual smorgasbord of Straw exit surveys and nation wide opinion measurements that attempt to determine which Candi dates Are leading the race to occupy the presidential Palace and con Gress of the Public opinion surveys in a philippine election tend to come in so Many different sizes and it is often difficult to Tell which Are legitimate measure ments of Public sentiment and which Are trial balloons floated by individual politicians to improve the perception of their for in thursdays Edi Tion of the Manila one of the country largest englishman Guage there were no less than three polls or surveys High lighted in election and in each one a different presidential candidate was leading the pack of 10 candidates seeking the highest office in the and during the last two weeks of the two of the largest polling organizations in the country have produced National surveys showing two different presidential candidates with Large leads Over their this Melee of polling comes As no real Surprise to the statisticians and analysts at the social weather stations the country most respected polling a nongovernmental Orga Sis produces the most comprehensive the most accurate political polls in the according to Sis senior statistician Luis a properly con ducted poll in the Philippines Means going out and conducting interviews the old fashioned a a ii i Mhz Hrvaj Mam i la As millions of filipinos head to the polls May free press reporter Dan Lett is there to cover the issues and candidates of this controversial election Lett reports on political polls in the which often produce wildly differing Abenir its All face to in the its All face to said Abenir of the exhaustive household surveys the Sis staff conduct during the the Sis was born in during the last frantic year of the dictator ship of former philippine president Ferdinand in part As a rebel lion against the Complete absence of objective information about what filipinos thought about their Abenir launching an Independent polling organization during the height of martial Law was no easy Abenir but the seven respected academics who formed Sis believed that the Peoples True senti ments were not being expressed properly in National history has shown that Many of the elections held by Marcos during his 20 year Rule were fixed from the Sis produces a National Survey every month of the election and one final Survey in the last week before the polling in the Philippines can be a maddening exercise for a statistic Abenir with a Large but widely dispersed and widely varying regional senti it is very difficult to capture a National he in widespread electoral fraud and vote buying add an ele ment of Surprise into the final results of most votes in the Philip he Public opinion polling has taken on new importance in this Abenir As philippine polling companies gain the result has been a proliferation of different kinds of surveys and All of which Are immediately fed to a Hun Gry philippine Media which reports them with Little analysis of their candidates Are running behind in the More comprehensive National polls tend to organize smaller and less accurate such As a Straw poll of leaders of a religious group or members of a professional or non governmental i think there is a feeling now that if you dont have a Survey to sup port your youre not in the Abenir Abenir noted that Swiss track record in the 1992 presidential elec Tion and 1995 midterm congressional elections is extremely Good Sis accurately predicted Fidel Ramoss 1992 presidential win and accurately forecast the finishing order of the six other in when 12 senatorial seats were up for Sis accurately predicted the successful candidates and was Able to determine the exact Lyle free press children in District Arent immune to election order of finish for 10 of the in this election Sis has consistently reported that opposition candidate and current Vic president Joseph Estrada is leading the other nine presidential the lat est results show that the Man known As Era to the voters has More than 30 per cent of the popular vote going into the May 11 More than twice that of his nearest Sis has based its results on household surveys of adults across the country and claims its results Are accurate to within three per plus or 19 times out of at one time or another during the current almost All major political parties and presidential or their repro have paid for part of the Sis giving them a True non partisan reputation in the despite the consistency of the Sis another major polling Compa facts base has been report ing its surveys find government candidate Joe de Venecia out in front by a comfortable Abenir declined to comment on the accuracy of the facts base except to note that this com Pany is relatively new on the scene and is not part of the marketing and Public opinion surveying professional association in the the and radically Dif Ferent polls have allowed both Estrada and de Venecia to claim imminent Victory and boast that the Only Way each one can lose now is if the other Abenir said regardless of the source of the it is important to note that poll results Are treated the same Way in the Philippines As they Are in any other country during a National if you Are behind in the you attack their accuracy and if youre you release the results to the Abenir Netanyahu wont attend peace Summit associated press Jerusalem israeli prime min ister Benjamin Netanyahu will not attend a Mideast peace Summit in Washington next a senior aide said yesterday after Netanyahu and a envoy failed to reach agreement withdrawal of israeli troops from the West Bank of the Jordan president Bill Clinton set a monday deadline for Israel to accept a Compromise which Calls for an israeli pullback from 13 per cent of the West in Clinton promised to begin talks on a Perma nent peace something Israel has pushed Clinton sent his chief Mideast Dennis in a final Effort to per Suade a 90 minute meeting Between Ross and Netanyahu ended without an agree ment and the two did not schedule another round of its quite obvious we wont be Able to reach an agreement by which Means we wont be Able to be in Washington on Netanyahu senior David the palestinians have accepted Clin tons by saying Netanyahu is setting himself up for an open confrontation with the Clinton administration and possible blame for a breakdown in the peace in state department spokesman James Foley said yester As far As he Israel had not yet closed the door on that if there is no breakthrough in the 14 month the United states will reexamine its approach to the peace Foley it was not immediately Clear what other options the Clinton administration is Ross plans to remain in Israel Over the leaving open the possibility of More talks with israeli news Media said efforts Are being made to arrange a meeting this at the end of the jewish palestinian peace negotiator Saab Ere Kat said Israel had not informed the palestinians of their decision not to attend the Washington Ross will be seeing president Arafat today and then we will know where things Ere Kat said after a palestinian Cabinet meeting in Barilla could not provide details of yesterdays meeting but Israel to reported Netanyahu told Ross he was furious with Clinton wife Hillary for her comments earlier this week in sup port of the eventual creation of a pales Tinian Hillary Clinton deviated from the policy of not taking a position on the final status of the West Gaza strip and East Jerusalem the disputed areas in which the palestinians Hope to set up their own Netanyahu has said the 13 per cent withdrawal from the West Bank Over a 12week period would harm israels the proposal Calls on the palestinians to make a greater Effort to fight the israeli newspaper Dediot Ahrnot said yesterday the United states is prepared to postpone the dead line for a week if Netanyahu makes a real Effort to sell his Cabinet on the Netanyahu aides said the proposal is not on the Agenda for Tomor rows Cabinet keep the final trip to be won in may1 swipe your Way to something extra with your Esso extra and you could win two weeks for two in Hawaii with a jeep to a private helicopter tour of the to spend and a jeep to to keep when you get Home you could win one of Esso gasoline certificates in this months the More you the better your if you dont have an Esso extra just its Imperial Oil youre on your Way with t entry made to tween May i and May 1998 que Lirios you Tor tue last draw on june 199fi in we tin you could win one strand pipe of Ana of gasoline apor Vaimau retail value of each prize is no 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