Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - June 20, 2004, Winnipeg, Manitoba Winnipeg free press sunday june 20, 2004 perspective b3 Dueppe to play Kingmaker minority government scenario would make bloc Leader Pivotal a photograph last week of bloc sub Cois Leader Gilles Dueppe sipping Beer at a Side walk Bistro in Montreal showed a Man seeming without a worry in the world. And Why should he worry unlike leaders of other parties who were desperately stumping for votes his place in history was All but assured already. Polls taken after the leaders debates monday and tuesday found that que Beers believe he won the debate in French did to lose the one in English that his party would sweep Quebec and that the june 28 election would not produce a majority for either the liberals or the conservatives in which Case or. Dueppe could become King maker if that a the role he sees As Best serving his interests. As improbable As it surely is every thing has gone Dueppe a Way since the release of auditor general Sheila Fraser a report on the a scam scandal in february. A scam so out raged Quebe cers that they moved As one to punish liberals with the Only Means Avail Able in Quebec ? the bloc. He is projected to win at least 55 of Quebec a 75 seats up from 38 seats in 2000 and the dismal 15 he was projected to win prior to a scam. There is every possibility that Dueppe will remain Neutral after june 28 and prop up no one. He has hinted As much saying on each Issue if it is Good for Quebec its yes yes yes. If its not its no no no. I Don to care about the Colour of the party. Its Issue by besides Dueppe and the bloc know that the wave they Are now Riding is not Likely to come again. They must make the most of it now. One Way to do that is to keep a minority government in Power for As Long As possible preferably a Liberal minority that will have Little Choice but to move quickly on its Campaign Agenda by negotiating new deals on health Home care phar Macare and Day care. All of these potentially conflict with provincial jurisdiction. The calculation therefore could be that Dueppe negotiate interminably for the purpose of making the talks collapse. Failed talks would allow Dueppe to charge that Canada is unworkable and that separation is the Only logical course. On the other hand Dueppe might calculate the most that the bloc is in obvious a position to course for become Quebec a Success the bloc to fully negotiating prevent a new deals with Ottawa could Liberal rebirth show that a que in Quebec Bec party can would be to deliver what que Bec wants without reach a Deal having to become with the part of the Cana Dian government. Conservatives the former social credit party set such a precedent. The or elitists went to Ottawa in the 1960s intent on Mone tary Reform but when that failed the party contented itself by serving As a voice for Quebe cers right through the ?70s. The risk of course is that Quebe cers might see that it is the liberals who would be serving their interests despite the bloc and decide to Welcome liberals Back in the next election ? Likely within 20 months the average length of time that Canadas eight pre Vious minority governments have sur Vived. The most obvious course for the bloc to prevent a Liberal rebirth in Quebec would be to reach a Deal with the conservatives who Are projected to win the most seats june 28, but not necessarily to win Power. To win Power Stephen Harper Likely will need an ally to create a majority. A bloc Deal with the conservatives Likely would prevent Martin from forming a minority government propped up by the nip. That might serve the bloc. If Martin is shown to not Only have lost the election but Power As Well if the liberals Are reduced to official opposition status it seems Likely the Liberal party would begin to tear itself apart Over Martins Folly and could therefore be in no position to win let alone Challenge for Power when the next Early election inevitably arrives. But Harper has rejected such a Deal. I will not under any circumstances form a coalition or Alliance with the bloc sub Cois or the nip it seems he said thursday. Certain that harpers Decla ration is strategic the nip would in that he cannot support want to be seen As a Liberal a Leader from the West playing foot minority Forse with Quebec a variety of separatists. It also is strategic reasons not because Harper the least of must Hope that in which is that the final week of the Campaign the they agree on Liberal and con a lot of things Serva Tive dead lock might break his Way and that he could win a majority As unlikely As that appears to be. His declaration also is pragmatic in that it is Likely ? based on projected results and convention ? that Martin will form a minority government even if he loses the election. Based on seat projections today the liberals Are Likely to win about 100 seats in parliament compared to about 125 for the conservatives 25 for the nip and for the Sake of tidiness lets say 58 for the bloc sub Cois for a total of 308. Harper will be Able to claim a Victory. But that claim amounts to Little More than bragging rights. In order to take Power Harper needs to be Able to demonstrate he commands the Confidence of parliament ? that is one or More of the other parties must signal that they would support his party in government so that a majority in parliament supports his government. Given the conservative Campaign it must be expected that Harper would have to move quickly to scrap the gun registry to repeal the Kyoto protocol and to beef up the military All things that the bloc opposes. Cling to office and then there is convention. Martin will still be prime minister on june 29, and could cling to office for several weeks As Louis St. Laurent did after losing to John Diefenbaker in 1957. Following the election then Martin will have some time to reach an accommodation with Jack Layton and the nip. It seems certain that the nip would support a Liberal minority for a Vari Ety of reasons not the least of which is that they agree on a lot of things and that their main Point of departure is How much each party is willing to pay for health care Home care pharma care Day care and to cities. The Liber als want to spend a lot the nip a lot More. In addition during the English debate tuesday Martin declared to Layton that the idea of proportional representation one of Layton a Priori ties deserves to be studied. That was a profoundly interesting signal for Many reasons. But it could mean is the nip wants proportional representation because it could Lead to a doubling of the party a representation in parliament in the next election. With about 20 per cent support the nip under the current first past the Post system is projected to win about 25 seats. Under a or sys tem in which parties Are awarded seats in proportion with their votes the nip could expect to take 60 seats. So it would seem Martin has already signalled the terms under which a Deal can be reached Between the nip and the liberals. Its not a Deal the bloc will like because a or system would mean that its representation would be drastically Cut in half in Quebec where it expects to win 73 per cent of the seats with 46 per cent of the vote. So the most Likely scenario is that the liberals and nip align to command about As Many votes As the conserva Tives Are projected to win ? about 125 seats each. Martin therefore can go to gov. Gen. Adrienne Clarkson and say that he commands As Many votes As Harper and can expect the bloc to maintain him in office for at least the near future if for no other reason than to continue to collect parliamentary pay cheques. Clarkson would have to note that the will of canadians was not to elect a conservative gov in order to Ern ment but take Power rather an amalgam of the Centre left. Harper need she Likely would to be Able to accept Martins argument and a demonstrate minority Liberal he commands government would the conf take Power sup ported by the nip. Dence of but even with parliament out nip support Martin could and no doubt would argue that convention dictates that he be allowed to present his program to parliament. the precedent for so doing is Clear. In 1925, William Lyon Mckenzie Kings Liberal government was Defeated by the conservatives under Arthur Meighen a Portage la Prairie lawyer. King won 101 seats to Meighen a 116, with 27 other seats held by Western progressives and other smaller Par ties. King argued that although Meighen won a plurality he remained prime minister and with support from the progressives he could command the Confidence of parliament. Gov. Gen., Viscount Julian Hedworth George Byng agreed. King formed a government but eight months later charges of kick backs paid to customs officials to accommodate shipments of liquor to prohibitionist America reached into Kings Cabinet. The progressives with Drew support and King was Defeated on a Confidence motion. Byng then invited Meighen to form a government Over Kings protest. Meighen a frail government fell within months and King went on to win a majority govern ment in 1926. Precedents so for All the speculation of what might be what is most Likely is that prime minister Paul Martin will form a minority government after june 28. He will have until perhaps septem Ber to decide a program and present a speech from the throne followed by a budget. If he survives votes on those measures he can hang on until the opposition parties decide to bring his government Down on a Confidence motion and Force another election. At this Point then Martin surely Hopes that the precedents set by King hold that he forms a minority govern ment and then wins a majority in the rematch. Knowing As Well As Martin what precedents Are Likely to dictate Harper has opted for his Best option ? a full court press to convince canadians to give him a majority that obviates the need for precedents and deals. Failing that he must Hope that the release this fall of official inquiries into a scam will so taint a Liberal minority that the nip would withdraw support the government would fall and be Defeated ? that this time the conservatives rather than the Liber als prevail in the ensuing grudge match. And Layton must Hope that he can wrest a review of a or system. Dueppe meanwhile can Comfort ably sip Beers at sidewalk bistros until june 29, at which time he will have to begin making sober judgments about his next move. Grits perform selective edit to health care storyline o Ottawa ? i think we May have seen this movie before. You know the one starring a Liberal prime minister desperate to paint his right Wing foe As scary dangerous in Canadian. Of its got lots of drama especially in the scene where he charges that those Guys from Alberta have a hidden Agenda to undermine the country a key social program while wrapping himself in the Flag and laying claim As the great defender of the Canada health act. Unlike Stephen Harper i care. Unlike Stephen Harper i will look Ralph Klein in the Eye and say no prime minister Paul Martin pro conservative Leader of being a silent partner in the Alberta premiers com ing prescription for medicare. Unlike Stephen Harper i will defend the Canada health and sounding very much like a gun slinging prime minister Martin said he was ready to do whatever it takes to protect health care in the province from which Harper comes. According to the Liberal War room the voters Are giving Martins health care performance in Chatham two thumbs up As their overnight tracking polls Are More than positive. But As much As it May pain team Martin to admit it its latest election tactic is lifted straight from the play Book Jean Chr Tien used to win the last Federal election. Lets rewind the tape to Early november 2000. A debate Over the possibility of two tier health care is raging As Chr Tien and Canadian Alliance Leader Stockwell Day Duke it out. Suddenly during a Montreal Campaign Stop Liberal aides Start passing out letters showing the Federal govern ment is investigating possible violations of the Canada health act in wait for it Alberta. The letters show that the then Liber Al health minister Allan Rock is look ing into reports that people Are being forced to pay at private clinics for the use of Fri machines. The practice which could result in queue jumping is also being investigated in Quebec but the Liberal Campaign focus is on Alberta which just happens to be the Home base of Day and the Alliance. Cue the prime minister. We asked them to be honest with the Canadian people Chr Tien said in his Campaign speech. Tell us what is the real Agenda. The Canadian people Are waiting for the Chr Tien a scare tactics worked then and the Martin crowd Are convinced the latest grit prime minister has finally latched onto a winning Issue that will help turn around their Campaign in time for the june 28 vote. But Here a something that want shown in the 2000 movie and some thing that Martin is unlikely to want to talk about in this years sequel. For All the Liberal bravado about standing on guard for the Canada health act the record suggests some thing far less. In october 2002, that always meddling auditor general Sheila Fraser revealed the Federal government is actually doing a poor Job of enforcing the Canada health act because it lacks the information needed to police medicare. Parliamentarians Are expected to make decisions on billions of dollars transferred to the provinces and Terri tories for health care but they still Don to have enough information to know the extent to which the Canada health act is being respected Fraser said in her report. Among Fraser a damning findings on the key health care file was that investigations into possible breaches of the Canada health act drag on for years and that the government is reluctant to impose penalties for violations. It believes that if it were to impose penalties the provinces and territories could simply choose to absorb them and continue to contravene the act her report said. And four years later whatever happened to the Liberal Promise to defend the Canada health act and get Tough on Fri queue jumping in Alberta Well Anne Mclellan wrote a Nasty letter in 2003 when she was health min ister. That led to consultations. Alas this Spring ? a time when Martin was no longer just a finance minister but Actu ally running the government ? those consultations were put on hold pending upcoming Federal provincial talks on the sustainability of health care. It is still an Issue of concern to health Canada a departmental spokeswoman admitted. Pass the Popcorn. Paul Samyn is the free press National reporter. His email is. ;