Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - June 27, 2004, Winnipeg, Manitoba B2 perspective Winnipeg free press sunday june 27, 2004 who knows continued from Page b1 too close to Call Winnipeg North one sitting my is going to be out of work come tomorrow night following what could be the closest race in the province. Nip my Judy was lycia leis is believed to have higher polling figures Here than Liberal my Rey Pagtakhan but whether she wins depends almost entirely on whether she can get her supporters out to vote. Probe pollster Scott Mackay said nip support in Manitoba has jumped six percentage Points since 2000, which leaves the party in Good position to hold seats like Winnipeg North and Winnipeg Centre. And this Riding re jigged for this election with parts of Winnipeg North Centre and Winnipeg North St. Paul has a Long nip history. Nip or Kcf maps have been sent to Ottawa from this area in 16 of the past 20 elections. Pagtakhan has moved Ridings twice now. In 1997 he switched to Winnipeg North St. Paul moving with the High concentration of filipino voters in the Maples. This year when the Maples moved Back to Winnipeg North so did he. With filipino voters ? who almost always vote ? solidly behind Pagtakhan was lycia leis must get out the vote if she is to win ? a Tough task in a Riding where turnout is usually far lower than the National average. The timing of the election and the confusion Over the number of elections happening recently also Means getting voters to the polls could be tougher than usual. The other candidates Here include Kris Stevenson for the conservatives communist Darrell Rankin and the Green party Salon Weinberg. Winnipeg Centre the race in Winnipeg Centre was perhaps the Nastiest in the province. Two vocal anti poverty activists Are squaring off in the third poorest Riding in Canada and the Campaign has been riddled with mud throwing. Nip my Pat Martin appeared terrified when he heard former Winnipeg har Vest executive director David Northcott was going to run against him for the liberals. And he came out of the blocks Seething calling Northcott a traitor for running for the liberals. Martin even threatened to give Northcott a fat lip following a radio debate an utterance he later apologized for making. He has been worried about the Lack of any real Campaign by conservative Robert eng who was All but unreachable in the first few weeks of the race. Mar tin said Flat out he was counting on eng to take votes from Northcott. And the Green party a Robin Faye one of the strongest candidates the party is Fielding in Manitoba is Likely to Siphon some support from Martin particularly in Wolseley. A single Mother she is campaigning on her own experience living in poverty which will resonate with a lot of people who vote Here. But while the nip was running scared of Northcott in the Early Days of this election tensions relaxed about Halfway through and the nip Are now extremely confident Martin will earn his Job Back. Northcott in his first political Campaign was Given heavy Liberal backing and some of the provinces Best campaigners but he is inexperienced in a solid nip area. Northcott a main Campaign platform was that voters should give him a Chance because the Riding would Benefit More from having someone in government than in opposition. But that Appeal could fall Flat since voters Arent sure the liberals Are going to form government again. The communist party Sanna Celestria Carr marijuana party a John Siedleski and Independent Douglas Schweitzer Are also on the ballot. Kildonan St. Paul in political circles this Riding was wide open when the election was called. It has completely new boundaries and no incumbent. Its also the Only three Way race in the province with any of Liberal Terry Duguid new Democrat Lorene Mahoney and conservative Joy Smith technically Able to eke out a Victory Tomor Row. Smith had a head Start on the Competition making two mail drops to every household in the Riding before the election even started. Working against her is a Promise she made to move to the Riding she a from fort Garry that so far she has to kept. That unkept Promise May be particularly damaging in Smiths Case because As a candidate in the provincial election last Spring she made much of the fact that her opponent in fort Garry was an out Sider. Duguid has name recognition As a former councillor for North Kildonan. But Duguid could fall victim to the anti Liberal tide. Mahoney in her first political Battle is a nurse who says she was born for poli tics. The nip strongly believes Mahoney could steal this Riding. Nip Premier Gary doer lives Here and it encompasses a handful of nip Ridings provincially. Jacob Giesbrecht is running Here for the Green party As Are Rebecca Whittaker for the marijuana party and Katharine Reimer for the Christian heritage party. Charleswood St. James Glen Murray who gave up the top Job at City Hall to become a Liberal Star candidate could suffer his first defeat in 15 years in politics tomorrow. Despite his huge name recognition and natural Charisma he could be punished by naturally conservative voters already feeling Cranky about the Federal Liber als. He is also struggling to overcome a reputation As a downtown mayor in a Riding that is quintessentially suburban. Conservative Steven Fletcher confined to a wheelchair after a 1996 car Acci Dent does to have the same name recognition. But he has run a vigorous Campaign and May earn the anybody but the liberals vote. He also has the numbers on his Side. In 2000, former my John Harvard would have lost by a whopping 7,600 votes if the Canadian Alliance and the progressive conservatives had banded together. The race there has been largely about the past. Murray a six year record As mayor is always an Issue and he often mines a list of offensive remarks made by former Reform party members to paint the conservatives As right Wing radicals. Also on the ballot Are new Democrat Peter Carney communist Beatriz alas the marijuana party a Dan Zupansky and the Green party Sandrew Basham. Possible upsets Winnipeg South Centre most liberals claim backbench my Anita Neville is Safe having won the Riding handily in 2000. But she a up against credible challenges from two Well organized campaigns who have been working the Riding for months. Conservative Raj Joshi a Young moderate management consultant makes a Good impression at the door and could do Well in right leaning neighbourhoods such As Tuxedo. New Democrat James Allum a Well educated City policy expert who ran in the 2000 election is running a textbook nip Campaign ? Well organized systematic and focused. Get past the Rara rhetoric and it appears the new democrats Are genuinely feeling positive about their chances of stealing the Riding. Same with the tories who would love to unseat Neville in a Riding held by the grits since the 1960s. But South Centre is Neville a turf where she served As a school trustee and where she is Well known at the door. She says she feels few negative vibes in the Riding to make her Overly nervous. Also on the ballot Are Green party candidate Ian Scott Canadian action party candidate Magnus Thompson marijuana party candidate Andy Caisse and communist Andrew Dalgies. St. Boniface along with Neville Liberal my Raymond Simard could be another candidate swept aside if there is a National wave of anger at the grits. He has been a relatively Low key my for just two years after winning the Riding easily in a by election after the late Ron Duhamel resigned to take a seat in the Senate. Conservative Ken Cooper is Simard a chief challenger. Cooper is the former president and ceo of the Winnipeg Stock Exchange and he appears to be running a Strong sign Campaign in parts of St. Vital Island lakes and South Dale. But Cooper does not speak French and May have been damaged by a visit Early in the Campaign by tory Leader Stephen Harper who said the new Esplanade Riel Bridge was overpriced and who was forced to clarify his party a policy on the Protection of French language rights outside Quebec. Also in the Hunt is Young new Democrat Mathieu Allard who has run an ener Getic Campaign with considerable youth support. He Speaks French and political scientist Raymond Hebert said some wonder if he will split the critical francophone vote which traditionally rallies around the Liberal candidate. Last week during a Brief rally at the Franco Manitoban cultural Centre prime minister Paul Martin warned in French that a vote for the nip is really a vote for the tories since it would allow Cooper to come up the Middle and steal the seat. That raised some eyebrows said Hebert. Also running Are Green party candidate Daniel Back marijuana party Candi Date Chris buoys communist party candidate Gerard Guay and Christian heritage party candidate Jeannine Moquin Perry. Dauphin Swan River conservative inky Mark should have this one wrapped up but he a created a few problems for himself this time out. He skipped out on every town Hall meet ing that had been scheduled and flip flopped Between the Canadian Alliance and the progressive conservatives a few times before the parties merged. Mark was the Only Manitoba Alliance my to leave the party and sit with a group of dissidents. He eventually joined the progressive conservatives and some Vot ers were confused and upset about his indecision. In 2000 he soared past his opponents with almost 48 per cent of the vote out stripping second place finisher Liberal Jane Dawson by More than 8,700 votes. But Marks absence at town Halls has Given his opponents reason to Call him arrogant and out of touch with the people. And his Liberal opponent Don Dewar is a Farmer with connections to the conservative party. Dewar was a tory in the 1980s, and that could help him steal some votes from red tories afraid of the new party a policies. Nip Walter Kolisnyk could also have an Impact Here although nip provincial sources weren to looking to this Riding As a possible win. Green party candidate Lindy Clubb and Christian heritage party candidate David Andres Are also on the ballot. Selkirk Interlake Given the popularity of former Alliance my Howard Hilstrom and the revived fortunes of the newly merged tories most think this ranch country Riding will vote on the right. That Means a win for tory James Bezan a cattle rancher who Speaks authoritatively about the be crisis. Bezan says his main opponent is new Democrat Duane Nichol a Young Selkirk City councillor who has a firm grasp of the issues. The new democrats hold the Interlake Region provincially but historically the Riding has moved around Between the three main parties. Making the Riding a three Way race is Liberal Bruce Benson a commercial fish or who is focusing on the Protection of Lake Winnipeg. He says the pollution in Lake Winnipeg ranks with be in terms of its Impact on the Riding a Economy. Also running Are Anthony Barendregt for the Christian heritage party and Trevor Farley for the greens. Churchill the provinces massive Northern Riding could hinge on the aboriginal vote. Incumbent Naper Bev Desjarlais is doing Well in Thompson the Pas and flin flon towns with Strong Union activism that tend to vote nip provincially. She is up against one of the North a most successful band chiefs Ron Evans of Norway House. Despite some political turmoil his Reserve is seen As a Model for other struggling Northern communities and he has spent the last six weeks flying around the Riding shoring up support. But first nations people Don to always vote in High numbers nor do they follow the Lead of the aboriginal establishment which has heartily endorsed Evans. In the last election when Desjarlais was battling Meech Lake hero and former my Elijah Harper she won Many polls in first nations communities. Also on the ballot Are conservative Bill Archer and Green party candidate David Nickarz. Safe As Safe can be Elmwood Transcona nip patriarch Bill Blaikie has spent much of the Campaign working for his daughter who is challenging prime minister Paul Martin in his Montreal Riding which suggests he a feeling pretty confident of another landslide Victory. Challenging him Are Bryan Mcleod who is running for the conservatives and Liberal Tanya Parks owner of Distant caravan upstairs at the Forks Market. When asked about Elmwood most political insiders of All stripes say it has been sewn up by Blaikie. But Parks said her polling is showing a Large number of undecided voters so she is still feeling optimistic. Also running Are Elijah Gair for the Green party Robert Scott for the Christian heritage party Paul Sidon for the communist party and Gavin Whittaker for the marijuana party. Provencher former Manitoba Justice minister Vic Toews is almost untouchable despite a scrappy Campaign run by Young Liberal Peter Epp. Toews who is among his party a most vocal social conservatives is hammering the liberals on be gun control and what he Calls their record of scandal and wasteful spending. Meanwhile Epp who could do All right in some of the Riding a francophone towns is hoping to persuade moderate voters that Toews and the old Reform members of the new conservative party Are too Radical for the Riding. Also running Are Janine Gibson for the greens and Naper Sarah Zaharia. Brandon Souris Merv Tweed the former la for Turtle Mountain May have upset a lot of peo ple when he did to resign his seat in the legislature until he absolutely had to by Law but it will have no Impact on his Success in this Riding. This Riding is conservative to the Bone and though Liberal Murray Downing a Farmer from Reston will put up a Good fight and could narrow the Gap to Tweed by campaigning against his own party a stance on the gun registry and same sex marriage its a losing Battle. Nip candidate Mike Abbey Green party candidate Dave Kattenburg communist Lisa Gallagher and Christian heritage candidate Colin Atkins Are also seek ing this seat. Portage Lisgar former Alliance now conservative my Brian Pallister will also be getting his Job Back tomorrow. Pallister like Tweed a former provincial tory la is facing no real Challenge from any other party. Former Winkler City councillor and potato Farmer Don Kuhl is running for the liberals but has Little name recognition outside Winkler and the City of Winkler itself is also tried and True Blue. Pallister won every poll there in 2000, most by More than 100 votes. Nip Daren Van Den Bussche a Portage la Prairie firefighter is joining Pallis Ter and Kuhl on the ballot As Are communist Allister Cucksey Green candidate Marc Payette and Christian heritage hopeful David Reimer. Winnipeg South a Strong push from conservative Rod Bruinooge will almost certainly not be enough to Knock off Liberal Reg Alcock in what is considered the liberals safest Manitoba seat. Alcock who co chaired the Manitoba Campaign has had tons of face time lately As the Treasury Board president charged with the task of clean ing up Liberal government spending scandals and he is Manitoba a senior Cabinet minister. If Alcock goes Down it will surely be a sign of a total Liberal meltdown which the polls Are not indicating right now. A visit from conservative Leader Stephen Harper in this Riding Friday is an indication Bruinooge is giving Chase but Bruinooge a political neophyte will probably have to come Back next time. Green candidate Ron Cameron Naper Catherine Green and Christian heritage candidate Jane Macdiarmid Are also on the ballot. . ;