Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - July 3, 2004, Winnipeg, Manitoba A14 Winnipeg free press saturday july 3, 2004 Freedom of Trade comment editor Terence Moore 697-7044 Liberty of religion Equality of civil rights editorials margins of errors t he Only poll that counts is the one on election Day. That truism is repeated so often especially by politicians who Are found to be trailing in Public opinion polls during elections that it has become a cliche the meaning of which is often con fused with its use in evading questions about poll results. But on monday the Validity of the truism was confirmed ? to use another cliche ? in Spades. On election Day canadians voted in ways that con founded expectations created by polls in the final week of the Campaign. Those polls All valid within the accepted criteria of the marketing research Industry were found to have underestimated sup port for the liberals and thus had overestimated the number of seats projected to be won by the conservatives. In almost every Case they projected the new conservative party would win More seats than the liberals. In the result however the liberals won considerably More seats than the conservatives ? 135 to 99. Red faced pollsters surveyed by newspaper reporters defended their prognostications generally agreeing that there had been a last minute surge to the liberals that occurred after it was too late to report it ? Canada selection Law prohibits the publishing of new poll results on the eve of elections. All indications Are that the pollsters Are Correct ? they Are capable of taking fairly accurate snap shots of voting intentions. The problem is that it takes time three or four Days As a Rule to report them by which time the entire electoral picture can change. There was Strong evidence for example that in the last week parties fortunes twice reversed in the time it took to move the poll find Ings from the Field and onto the front pages of newspapers. As a Rule this lag in reporting results can be for Given because As a Rule the electorate is not As volatile As it apparently remained right up to voting Day on monday. But if polls cannot capture volatility and report it in a timely Way if they can Only be useful and reliable predictors of predictable behaviour ? that is they Are most accurate today so Long As today turns out much like yesterday ? it is Worth asking what Merit they have at All. That certainly will be a question that will be raised repeatedly Between now and the next elec Tion. Already pollsters Are dreaming up new meth ods and procedures to better ensure that they Are not embarrassed again. It is found for example that people increasingly refuse to answer polling questions with the result that the Assumption of randomness upon which polls Are based is becoming biased toward those who Are willing to answer questions. It is proposed that in addition to All the warn Ings and caveats pollsters already attach to their findings that they add a new one ? that they pub Lish refusal that would be helpful. Certainly such tinkering is a better answer than Banning polls. Politicians and political parties put great store in polls both to shape policy and rhetoric. Voters need to know what is driving politicians and the Best Way to know that is by seeing the polls or some variant of what it is that politicians Are following. As this election has shown however voters should not put a great Deal of Stock in what the polls find. Cautious reformer Alberta was once considered the most daring the most innovative player in the area of health Reform in this country. But that was then when pre Mier Ralph Klein was years away from facing re election and was More than Happy to Bluff Ottawa for bigger health transfers. This week or. Klein launched a discussion about health reforms with his citizens stressing its up to albertan to decide on implementing user fees and deductibles tied to incomes something he rejected earlier this year. Health Reform in Canada proceeds at a glacial Pace. In 2002, Alberta released its Mazankowski report a series of initiatives that could have Trig gered real change in that province. Among the recommendations were a 90-Day health care guarantee so that no patient waited too Long for service and a directive for health authorities to contract with Pri vate providers for the delivery of services. Neither of these has been implemented having blown their deadlines the authorities Are contracting with Pri vate partners to build nursing Homes. And this week in triggering the debate about How to keep health costs Down or. Klein announced he was immediately adding $700 million to the system that will increase orthopaedic surgeries add hundreds of permanent Hospital Beds and wipe out deficits of health authorities. The government also announced that higher than expected revenues this year May allow it to retire the provincial debt earlier to be the Only debt free province. This lately is the Way health care is financed in Canada surpluses arising from reduced debt Cost allow for increased spend ing on health. Or. Klein also released a conference Board of Canada report he commissioned comparing Canada a medicare system to those of other developed countries. It noted Sweden ? ranked second in an Overall assessment ? imposes user fees on Basic services Hospital Beds doctor consultations with Success. Switzerland ranked first does too but with less Success because its fees Are too Low. When albertan have a Chance to Chew Over the facts they May decide the Canada health acts ban on user fees is insupportable. And then the discussion about real health Reform might actually begin. The latest in Shotgun marriage in a silent and what i have hoped is a dignified protest against that institution known As marriage i enjoy a wonderful relationship with a woman to whom i am not married. We have stayed outside it. By joint decision we have not got married. We have lived together now since we jointly bought a House in 1997. We have from time to time talked about get Ting married but we have not. The romantic conceit of this idea is that we Are in this not through Law but because we want to be. The romantic conceit is that every morning that we Wake up together we can decide not to Ever Wake up together again. The romantic conceit if you like is that we Are not betrothed once and bound by statute and convention but we must make our vows every Day. As such our Romance is continuous and made from will not by Force by continuous decision not by inertia. This is to an extent Poppycock but it is a Nice Poppycock. It is a conceit. In reality divid ing our lives would have similar problems to dividing any lives married or unmarried. We would have the same tears Over the crockery the cd collection the designer chair the photographs and the myriad things that destroy love in breaking up As any couple would and there would be the ruinous division of the truly serious things All the property that we jointly share and the disaster our splitting would be to our children from earlier relationships. On june 30, the provincial government of Manitoba took away All our rights not to be married. In a sweep of state arrogance with a piece of Nanny legislation designed to treat adults As children incapable of looking after each other the Manitoba government decided that it would be irrelevant whether or not we had decided not to be married the province would deem that we were. That piece of patriarchal do gooder Legisla Tion is Bill 53 the common Law partners prop erty and related amendments act. It deprives us of our rights is an unreasonable intrusion on our Liberty and should be struck Down. It is an unwarranted assault on All adults abilities to make their own decisions about one of if not the most important measure of How we live our lives. The legislation deems that if a couple has lived together for at least three years or for one year if there is a child of the relationship they shall be treated under the Law As if they were married. Assets acquired during marriage assets that accumulate or appreciate during the marriage shall be in most cases divided equally on a split. Common Law couples can opt out of this if they wish by going to a lawyer and in effect getting a pre nuptial agreement. Lets forget for a moment about whether if a Man or a woman offers her partner a drawer he or she needs to ask the other to sign a Hundred whereas before leaping into bed. Would someone just Tell me Why we should need to opt out at All forget too that the words common Law Are intensely demeaning. My beloved and i Don to want to be anybody a common anything. Actu ally we think that our living together is quite special and it is special in part because of the romantic conceit i described above. Others May want to have their relationships sanctified by Bishops rabbis and Towel sets registered at the Bay. Ours is sanctified by a decision to do what we want without the approval agreement or Blessing of anyone religious or otherwise. We have decided to share our assets to own a House jointly to have a joint Bank account have each other As beneficiaries of this that and the other. We decided because we want to. Now the state says we have to. Who gives the state that right what right has it to so interfere the option to any free person of sound mind Over the age of majority to Pool their belongings in a married state is open to them. I congratulate All who make the Choice. They can get married. For those of us who Don to want to who May see marriage As a confining mean spirited contract All about property and not about love Why should the state decide that we should be married whether we like it or not Why cannot i or my beloved have the right to enter into whatever conjugal arrangement we want the state rightly has Laws about the Protection and rights of children but arrange ments for grown ups should to we be Able to decide for ourselves i recognize that the Law is made with the Best intentions of protecting those who might be taken advantage of in relationships where one partner refuses to give another what the other should have. But the Law Over reaches. We must have the ability As free people to make our mistakes to if you like make our bed and lie on it. A Law that treats adults like children is a bad Law. It removes responsibility prevents Choice hurts Liberty. Its a disgrace to intelligence. And if you were wondering i asked my beloved and my step daughter if they minded if i wrote this. Both said no. My beloved Sim ply wanted me to make sure that you dear Reader knew that it was we who had to got married. But now i suppose we might As Well do it As it makes no difference. If you get an invite no presents Cash Only please. Welcome to Ottawa Jack prime minister in waiting Jack Layton this week set out the terms under which he would allow Liberal Leader Paul Martin to participate in the new Federal government. They were pretty much As one might expect from a Leader of the new demo cratic party ? no truck nor Trade nor missile defence with the Yan Kees hang on to Ottawa a largely useless shares in Petro Canada rather than Selling them and using the approximate $2 Bil lion profit to pay Down the National debt of $500 billion Don to even in fact think of paying Down that debt at All but rather spend the Money like a Drunken socialist Block any proposed or Possi ble Bank mergers regardless of whether they make sense or not. And Don to forget about the $10-billion-Worth of worthless windmills. Of wait a minute. I think i got that wrong. It was Paul Martin and his scandal Ridden liberals who won the election not genial jacks Parlour pinks. But never mind it is hard to see How there will be any difference. Or. Martin did announce on tuesday that even though his party had won Only a minority he would make no deals and engage in no formal coalitions. This made or. Layton a pub Lic ruminations about whether or not to accept a position in or. Martins Cabinet seem kind of silly although typically vainglorious. In truth it seemed More sad than silly because or. Mar tin has really Only two choices now if he plans to govern he can embrace the nip and gov Ern on or. Layton a terms ? terms that canadians decisively rejected at the polls ? if he can also bribe or bully a couple of maps from the other opposition parties for the two More votes he needs or he can put out the Bills that come before this parliament with the exception of Confidence motions As free votes. That would help erase the democratic deficit that the Martin liberals once Long ago it seems campaigned on and now wish would just Dis appear from memory. Goddam tape recorders the most Likely scenario in any Case is that the nip Tail will end up wagging the Liberal dog until the next election is forced the alter native the preference ? free votes ? would be to govern As if Stephen harpers conservatives had won the election and parliament would be treated As if it actually counted for something maps As if they actually mattered for More than just a body count. But i was a lot of canadians now Are wondering Why the conserva once your Tives did not in fact win. If emperor there were Ever time for a change of government this elec or. Tion would seem to have been Martin it. The right was finally United seemed in the new conservative party which although still a Little Dis to cry organized presented an increasingly credible alternative National government a party that was proving it could makes gains in the East while holding its base in the West. the Liberal party wore a dead Albatross of scandal waste and mismanagement around its neck. But i was once your emperor or. Mar tin seemed to cry out pathetically As his Campaign was dying. That is not really the kind of Campaign that can carry a country so liberals soon changed their tactics. The question that has canadians scratching their Heads today is How did those tactics succeed the polls right up until the end indicated the tories would at least come close to tying the liberals that there would be a tussle to see who could form a minority government. The polls however were wrong More wrong than they have been for some time. Why this should be so we Don to know. But we can guess and there is no shortage of guessing going on. Some say that it was a question of charter rights that canadians feared the conserva Tives would invoke the notwithstanding clause on a regular basis to Over ride the human rights of canadians. Only Liberal gulls could seriously have believed that and they would have voted Liberal anyway. Some say it was a ques Tion of the old Canada ? the Liberal Canada that believes in Universal health care regard less of How badly it is delivered and How extra Ordinary its costs against the new Canada the conservative Canada that leaves the old and the poor to die in the streets instead of in the Hospital hallways that made the difference. Only new democrats and their fellow trav Ellers in the Liberal left believed that and they would have voted nip or Liberal anyway. And some say it was because canadians were More scared of the conservatives than they cared about Liberal corruption. In the end it was the undecided vote that tilted the election. It should have been obvious to All of us pundits pollsters and newspapermen alike. Three weeks before the election the Liberal record was Clear the conservative alternative apparent and the undecided vote was at 20 per cent. There should have been no doubt that anyone who had not made up her mind by then would on election Day hold her nose against the stench and vote Liberal because you can get used to just about anything. It is change that is hard. It requires courage and Canada is a country of cowards who can live with corruption because they fear their own future. You get the government you deserve they say. Welcome to Ottawa Jack. ? 2004 Winnipeg free press a division of up Canadian Rudy Redekop newspapers limited partnership president up Canadian newspapers limited partnership published seven Days a week at 1355 Mountain Avenue Murdoch Davis / publisher Winnipeg free press est 1872 / Winnipeg Tribune est 1890 Winnipeg Manitoba r2x 3b6, pm 697-7000 Nicholas Hirst / editor ;