Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - July 11, 2004, Winnipeg, Manitoba B2 perspective Winnipeg free press sunday july 11, 2004 Quebec wont elect tories but it pays Bills o Ottawa ? lets grab a calculator and turn some conventional political Wisdom on its head. Of. Here we go. Consider the Post election View that Stephen harpers conservatives were a bust in Quebec. They struck out in All 75 of que becs seats and managed to grab a paltry 8.8 per cent of the provinces popu Lar vote. Proof again or so the thinking goes that the anti que Bec baggage of the conserva Tive Alliance reformers will never allow Harper to reap any returns from la Belle province. But if you punch in the number of votes the conservatives collected in Quebec 300,499and multiply that by $1.75, you will find that the Home of the bloc quebecois is Worth exactly $525,873 to Harper in annual taxpayer funding for his new party. Win Money Welcome to the world of c-24, the country a new electoral financing regime where even if you lose every seat you can win lots and lots of Money. The Chretien Era Bill designed to inject some integrity into the often dirty business of Money and politics Means taxpayers will largely be pay ing the freight for the country a Politi Cal parties instead of corporations or Trade unions. The new electoral Bottom line is Worth $1.75 annually for each and every vote a party earned at the ballot Box. In fact harpers performance in Quebec is actually Worth More financially to the party than his Success in Saskatchewan where he won 13 of 14 seats. A near sweep of that Prairie province was achieved with Only 178,180 votes which translates into $311,815 in funding from the Federal purse. Indeed when it comes to dollars and cents Quebec with Zero conservative seats is actually the fourth most important province to Harper after Ontario and his Western fortresses of Alberta and British Columbia. And How about this while Harper finished his Campaign in Alberta with the old Reform slogan that the West wants in it is the East paying the Way for the conservatives. The value of All conservative votes in the East is $3.8 million compared to $3.1 million for those in the West which provided the bulk of harpers 99 seats. Quebec holds similar Good news for the new democrats which were also shut out in All 75 seats. Take the party a 158,838 votes in Quebec multiply it by $1.75, and you come up with $277,966 ? an amount greater than the $194,076 Jack Layton earned out of Manitoba where he captured four seats. On a National basis c-24 will be Worth $8.6 million annually for Paul Martins liberals who received 4.9 million votes on june 28. For harpers conservatives their 3.99 million votes adds up to $6.9 million in party fund ing. Layton can Bank on $3.7 million for the Dps 2.11 million votes. The bloc quebecois will get $2.9 million for its 1.67 million votes to help them plot the breakup of the country. And even though the greens failed to elect a sin Glemp their party will have $1 million in its War Chest to help it try to win its first seat. While the country still employs a first past the the Post electoral sys tem c-24 has essentially Given the country a financial form of proportion Al representation. While there is still no correlation Between the popular vote and a party a seat count in the commons the Money Trail is directly linked to each a ballot totals. But will c-24 also upend the conventional Wisdom that the first minority government in a Quarter Century Means canadians could be facing another election in Little More than a year limits Well consider this. Running a nation Al election can to be done on the cheap. Under the party spending limits for the most recent Campaign the Liber als conservatives and new democrats were All allowed to Fork out up to $17 million on leased jets High priced ads pollsters and everything else that goes into a modern Day Campaign. But c-24 sets limits on the Money parties used to raise from the usual suspects. The new rules mean no individual can donate More than $5,000 a year and restricts Union and corporate donations to $1,000 annually. It May very Well be that the financing Law designed and passed at a time when everyone believed another lib eral majority government was inevitable will Force the parties now in a minority situation to opt for an election timeline More in keeping with the four year Cycle of majorities in order to collect the quarterly pay ments needed to wage the next Campaign Battle. Paul Samyn is the free press National reporter. His email is rift in iraqi resistance local rebels foreigners at Odds Over goals tactics by Ian Fisher and Edward Wong b Baghdad Iraq ? tension appears to be rising Between the Homegrown iraqi resistance and the foreign islamist fighters who have entered the country to destroy the . Military Here. This is one Rea son experts speculate that Iraq has not had the kind of spectacular attack meant to spread terror and defy the . Agenda for a Long two weeks even during the Transfer of formal sovereignty Back to the iraqis. Evidence has emerged in sniping Between groups on arabic television and websites and in interviews with iraqi and . Officials As Well As members of the resistance and peo ple with close ties to it. All speak of rising friction Between nationalistic fighters and foreign led islamist Over goals and tactics with some iraqi insurgents indicating a revulsion Over the car bombs and suicide attacks in cities that have caused hundreds of civilian deaths. But such friction does not mean there is a submission by the Resis Tance said dhary Rasheed a professor at the University of Baghdad who lives in Samarra a Center for the resistance. It is a phase of reconstruction and re evaluation in order to push the operations out of the cities so As not to have innocent people Large car bombings ? thought to be carried out More often by foreign ers who make up a Small percentage of the insurgents ? have disgraced the reputation of the resistance Rasheed said. And the resistance has worked just like the government has been trying to to curtail the influence of the last week the split took a cinematic turn when masked men calling themselves the salvation movement released a videotape containing threats to kill Abu Musab Al Zarqa i the jordanian militant who is suspected in the deadliest attacks Here. . Military officials say the Salva Tion movement is composed of Secu Lar former members of Saddam Hussein a baath party and is based in fal Lujah. Then on Friday a second group of guerrillas released a similar message threatening Zarqa i. The same Day a statement posted on an islamist website claiming to be signed by Zarqa i lashed out at the Muslim clerics association an influential sunni group with Strong ties to iraqi insurgents. The statement accused the group of weakness for offering a Ransom to prevent the beheading of Nicholas e. Berg the . Businessman killed in May. The split would seem to be Wel come news to the new government of prime minister Iyad Allawin. His strategy for combating violence is to Divide the insurgency by appealing to the patriotism of iraqi fighters to reject the presence of foreigners who he claims do not care about Iraq itself. He is promising amnesty for some iraqis but threatening to crack Down on those who do not accept it. To that end Allawin and other government officials say he has been meeting with former baath party members in the resistance and tribal leaders to convince them that their interests and those of foreign fight ers Are not the same. We re negotiating with what i Call the non criminals those who never really were the hard Core like Zar Qadi and his aides and the Al Aida style people Allawin said in an interview. And on the other hand be very firm with the criminals and the assassins and the killers and the . Officials admit that they Lack reliable intelligence about the Resis Tance even about its size. For months . Officials have said in Public that the relations and relative strength. Al Sadr a poorly trained militia appears to have been weakened greatly As it took on . Troops in the streets of Baghdad and cities across the Southern shiite heartland even As Al Sadr a popularity has soared. Meanwhile the military position of the sunnis and foreign fighters appears to have improved after . Officials declined to mount a final military assault on fal Lujah essentially allowing the creation of a Haven for terrorists. Some experts argue that the creation of the new government even if it has not been accepted As legitimate has still accentuated the differ ence in goals Between the groups. The iraqi resistance seems to be fighting against the americans largely in the names of Saddam and iraqi patriotism or for the cause of getting sunnis into positions resistance has of greater Power. The honest and True attracted no More foreign fighters than 5,000 people. Embrace a broader resistance should but officials say Pri-anti-. Agenda less lately the numbers go on to kick the specific to Iraq and Are far higher and a More concerned with detailed report by occupation out of sowing destruction in the associated the name of militant press last week Quot the country islam. De an Anonymous however religious ? Sheik Abdul Satar Sattar military official say Fervour does seem to Al Samarrai ing that the Resis Tance can Call on upward of 20,000 people. But even without detailed Intelli gence the outlines of the resistance have been Clear since it began gain ing strength last fall. At the most Basic level the insurgency has been divided into the three parts that sometimes overlap sunni arabs in Many cases led by former baath party members and former soldiers shiite arabs led by Muntada Al Sadr and foreigners from other Arab and Muslim countries. The shiites largely operate separately from the sunnis and from most foreign fighters experts conclude. Sunni insurgents do not act under a Central command but rather Are made up of Independent groups that co ordinate loosely and that have attracted Many volunteers these sources say. The heavy fighting in april and May appears to have changed the groups Edwards pretty boy image May prove to be a liability by Sheryl Gay Stolberg Washington ? Ever since John f. Kennedy trounced Richard m. Nixon in a televised debate during the 1960 presidential race the Rule of thumb in politics has been that looks count. But can a candidate look too Good for his own Good that is the question fac ing sen. John Edwards handlers now that sen. John Kerry the presumptive democratic presidential nominee has picked Edwards to be his running mate. Edwards whose movie Star looks earned him recognition As people magazines sexiest politician in 2000, is fighting attempts by republicans to paint him As Youthful and inexperienced. Right Wing commentator Rush Limbaugh a Favourite nickname for Edwards is the Breck democrats say the tag wont stick. But political consultants historians and even politicians themselves say that Good looks can indeed be Detri mental at election time especially if they feed the perception that a Candi Date lacks substance or is too Young. I think that candidates who Are attractive have an advantage said senator Susan Collins a Maine but that our society generally is a Little uneasy or suspicious of someone a seriousness if they Are movie Star hand some or even Kennedy faced this problem. We look Back and we think of this dashing glamorous impossibly Young romantic figure said Richard Norton Smith the presidential historian. But in 1959 and 1960, he had to overcome his Good looks Smith said initially Lent credence to the criticism that he a too Young he a too inexperienced he a a snot nosed the Kennedy Nixon debate was widely considered a turning Point in american politics the beginning of the Era when Media handlers and image consultants dominated campaigns. But experts say looks had Long been a fac Tor in elections. In 1920 ? the first presidential election in which women voted ? the winning candidate was Warren g. Harding a Man of such classic Good looks that Smith said he might have been posing for a statue with a in the Case of Edwards comparisons Are already being made to former vice president Dan Quayle. Quayle aware that his Boyish appearance might Hurt him tried to present a studious image during the Campaign. But he com pounded his problem by stumbling Over his words and facts. A defining moment of his political career came when he insisted to a sixth grader that potato was spelled with an democrats say Edwards who made millions As an articulate trial lawyer does not have that problem. John did it Rise to where he got because of his looks said Steve Jarding a former adviser to Edwards. He got there because people said when this Guy Speaks he blows you he has also demonstrated an ability to make fun of himself ? a time honoured Way of deflecting criticism. When he announced he was seeking bind some iraqis and foreigners. The establishment of the newly Sovereign government May have set in motion a Subtle but real shift in perceptions among some iraqi insurgents. Some argue that Allais baathist past ? As a genuine hard liner before he ran afoul of Saddam ? is swaying some former baathist toward loyalty to the new govern ment. Perhaps even More persuasive . Military officials say is the new president Ghazi Mashal jail Al Yawer a sunni who has spoken against the occupation. And even if americans hold ultimate Power iraqis head a government with Broad authority and the resistance is taking notice several experts say. All these things taken together will pull in some baathist though not All of them said Hamid Al Bayati the Deputy foreign minister. We have to see How Many of them will join the democratic presidential Nomina Tion Edwards handed out bottles of Breck shampoo. On the Campaign Trail Kerry is try ing to do much the same. John and i have a lot in common ladies and gentleman Kerry said Friday during a Campaign swing through West Vir Ginia. His name is John. My name is John. He a a lawyer. I a a lawyer. He was named people magazines sexiest politician of the year. I read people republicans say Kerry might be treading on dangerous ground. Politicians spend a lot of time trying to be taken seriously said John Feehery a spokesman for House speaker j. Den Nis Hastert. If they trivialize him based on his looks Feehery said referring to Edwards that hurts his though the iraqi born guerrillas have proved themselves to be skilled warriors it is the foreign fighters who Are most often accused of plotting the larger attacks which have hit shiite mosques crowded streets political parties and foreign Aid groups. In a single Day of bombings As Many As 200 people have been killed. Over time the deaths of those inno cent iraqis . And iraqi officials say have angered Many iraqi resisters. There even seems to be specific opposition to the attacks on police stations Oil pipelines and electrical stations ? All Basic structures of a functioning state. Asked recently if he advocated continued struggle against the americans Sheik Abdul Satar Sattar Al Samarrai a Leader of the Muslim clerics association said yes. Hon est and True resistance ? that is away from chaos killing innocents and policemen and sabotaging the infrastructure ? should go on to kick the occupation out of the the mystery remains whether the Transfer of sovereignty itself truly deepened the Divide Between iraqis and foreigners and led to the Lull in audacious terror attacks since june 24. On that Day four Days before the Transfer of formal sovereignty coordinated bombings in several cities killed More than 100 people. After that . Officials braced for an increase in attacks to protest the new interim government but that never materialized. Rasheed said such changes were deliberate with the resistance essentially giving Allais government the Chance to prove that he is working in iraqis interests and will try to decrease the visibility of . Sol Diers at a minimum. Other officials do not go so far. The senior . Military official would not Rule out the possibility that iraqi insurgents were reining in the for Eigners. But it is also possible he said that altogether the insurgents Are adapting to circumstances and Are focusing less on the immediate and More on the longer term. Maybe this is just a tactical pause he said. What is the next big event the ? new York times news service who is physically attractive and one who is not political consultants say they would choose the attractive Candi Date. But Quayle a political career ended after the vice presidency. And Ronald Reagan ? who not Only had movie Star Good looks but was a Bona fide movie Star ? lost the Republican nomination to president Gerald r. Ford in 1976. Looks Are not As important As personality said senator Trent Lott a miss whose carefully maintained hair is often the subject of political Humour. You can be us Usu Gly or you can be extremely handsome but if you be got a genuine likable personality that a what people thus the old saying about the nations capital Washington is Holly Wood for ugly people. ? new York times news service ;