Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - October 01, 2008, Winnipeg, Manitoba C m y k Page a11 Winnipeg free press wednesday october 1, 2008 View from the West and beyond comment editor Gerald flood 697 7269 Gerald. Flood free press. M. Ca Winnipeg repress. Com a 11 f Ive political parties and an archaic and politically toxic first past the Post electoral system have Long turned Canadian Federal elections into a Crapshoot. The oct. 14 election promises to be the wildest Crapshoot of them All. The Harper conservatives with Little More than the same 36 per cent support 124 seats they obtained in 2006, could win a near or absolute majority government. Imagine 31 More seats with no increase in votes. Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos research says a majority is mathematically possible. There Are close four Way races in b. C. And Montreal where seats can be won with As Little As 32 per cent of the vote. We could have More strategic voting in this election than before. The greens have taken five Points from the liberals leaving the 64 per cent of Centre left canadians split More evenly than Ever before among the liberals the new democrats the bloc quebecois and the greens. The electoral Crapshoot would Long be a thing of the past had nip Leader de Broadbent and his caucus seized a never before disclosed offer from prime minister Pierre Trudeau immediately after the 1980 election. The liberals captured 147 of 282 seats with 44 per cent of the popular vote but failed to elect a single my West of Winnipeg despite the support of about 25 per cent of Western voters. A Liberal majority with no Western seats ignited Western rage. Not Only do ongoing unrepresentative and perverse electoral outcomes undermine democratic legitimacy and suppress turnout they rupture the Bonds holding the country together artificially fomenting regional alienation and fracturing National Unity. Trudeau invited Broadbent to his office for a Chat. The nip had captured 26 of its 32 seats in Manitoba Saskatchewan and b. C. With about one third of the vote. Trudeau said he would introduce legislation for proportional representation if the nip would co sponsor it. According to Well placed sources Broadbent said he would take the proposal to his caucus. The answer was no. Broadbent told the prime minister nip maps were afraid of losing their seats. Trudeau declined to forge ahead alone. So Here we Are. On almost every major Issue of this Campaign from funding for culture and the arts to crime and punishment to the role of government the four parties of the Centre and the left Are All closer to each other than they Are to Stephen harpers conservatives. Yet they and the two thirds of canadians they represent could be shut out for four years. Sick and tired of waiting for their politicians canadians Are taking matters into their own hands and resorting to strategic voting. Two websites wow. . Ca and wow. Democratic space. Com canada2008, offer updated Riding by Riding information on which candidate can defeat the conservative. Kevin grandia founder of . Ca reports nearly 39,000 unique visitors to his website in its first three Days and 234,335 Page views. We have a massive split of the progressive left vote he says. Theress 17 Days left in this election and if we keep pushing hard we could realistically spread the message to More than one million canadians democratic space. Com urges visitors to ask themselves what Harper would do with a majority. A historian and an English professor who specializes in the use of language for cultural purposes say a Harper majority government or even a strengthened Harper minority would remake the face of Canada. Trent University historian Dimitry Anastaki says Canada will be a smaller country. Harpers modes Operand is to grind government to a halt through tax cuts or spending cuts and gridlock created by a pseudo elected Senate More Powers to the provinces and the end of the Federal spending Power. Ottawa will do Little More than manage National defence. Harper does not like government. Hers quite Happy to see the provinces usurp the Federal government to be the key Drivers in How the Canadian Economy and key social policies work. So you will see a Canada that cant control greenhouse Gas emissions create social policies achieve educational goals. The collective approach for dealing with social and economic problems will be out the window. Mcmaster University English and cultural studies professor Marc Ouellette says the Harper conservatives Arentt interested in building a big tent party. Secure in their 35 per cent ideological base they Are using wedge issues and u. S. Republican style culture wars to smash the coalitions of the other parties. Again like the republicans they Hope to win and govern by pitting All against All outside their own Small tent. By playing on Peoples fear of difference you can get allies from groups who would otherwise be against one another Ouellette says. Ontario Premier Mike Harris got the doctors support with tax cuts and the working poor to Back him by slashing handouts to people on social assistance. It will be if you get sick its your fault if you re out of work its your fault. People will be on their own. Canadians could face a real revolution after oct. 14, a revolution desired by Little More than a third of us a revolution Courtesy of a broken electoral system. A Harper majority would have minority support Frances Russell the leaders debate in French begins tonight at 7 p. M. Cd. The English debate thursday begins at 8 p. M. Cd As does the u. S. Vice presidential debate. T of Days politicians Are fully aware of and heavily coached on the Impact of non verbal cues. Still a debate is never As scripted nor As controlled As a formal speech and there Are things to watch for that can give you insights into hidden motivations and feelings. This is especially True if you notice those non verbal signals that Are in response to an unpredicted moment. As you View the upcoming election debate Here Are 10 things to watch for 1 Eye blinks. Under pressure or discomfort Eye blinks increase dramatically. Watch to see what topics cause a candidates Eye blink rate to race. 2 congruence. When someone totally believes what they re saying there is an automatic synchronicity Between words and gestures. Watch to see when non verbal signals Are aligned with the spoken word and when they Are out of sync a Cue that there is some conflict Between whats being said and the speakers True feelings. 3 narrowed lips. Lips that tighten or almost disappear into the Mouth Are almost always a negative signal. Watch for this gesture As a signal that someone is either holding Back key information or they really dont want to respond to a particular question. 4 breathing patterns. Holding ones breath is a natural human reaction when facing danger. Watch for a sudden Sharp intake of breath or a change of breathing into Small shallow breaths As a signal that someone feels threatened. 5 hand gestures. There Are a variety of hand gestures that speak for themselves hand to Mouth gestures the hand brushes the lips or touches the nose Are deception cues that people unconsciously use when lying or when listening to someone else who they believe is lying. Open Palm gestures Are convincing signals of Candour. And the steeping hands gesture Palms separated slightly fingers of both hands spread and Finger tips touching is a display of High Confidence. In fact if either candidate uses steeping you will notice it at a time when that person feels the most prepared and assured. 6 body leans. People lean toward other people or things they like or Are interested in. Watch for candidates to lean in slightly when they feel they Are being asked a question that addresses a strength and lean Back slightly when confronted with a question that might expose a weakness. 7 smiling. There is a big difference Between real and fake smiles. Watch to see which situations or comments elicit a real smile that lights up the candidates entire face and crinkles the eyes and which rate a fake or social smile that simply pulls up the Corners of the Mouth. And pay attention to the appropriateness of the smile. A smile at the wrong time like when discussing solemn issues is a disconcerting signal that words and feelings Are out of alignment. 9 Micro expressions. Fleeting facial expressions often allow the truth to slip through in Brief unguarded moments. Watch for flashes of anger disgust Surprise Joy or fear that Are expressed before the conscious mind can rein them in and create a More appropriate reaction. 10 Security gestures. A Security Barrier one that is favoured by politicians television personalities salespeople and others who dont want to appear nervous or unsure is formed when one Arm swings in front of the body so that the opposite hand can touch a shirt cuff Bracelet watch or other object on the Arm. In fact any time you see someone move his arms across his body chances Are hers silently and unconsciously reassuring himself. Please remember however that there is no such thing As Universal body language. Beyond cultural variances every individual has his or her own set of non verbal Behaviours that is Normal for that person. Trying to decode body language cues without considering Baseline Behaviours can give a false read. So As the election Campaign Rolls on toward oct. 14, watch for these nonverbal cues. Try to stay As unbiased As possible while viewing the debate. And beware of the Halo effect the leniency with which we interpret the body language of politicians we already favour. Carol Kinsey Goman pad is the author of 10 books including this Isnit the company i joined and the nonverbal advantage secrets and science of body language at work. Goman pkg. Com. Troy Media corporation Carol Kinsey Goman what to watch for during the election debates t his is not the crash of 1929 revisited and we Are not heading into a second great depression. No developed country this time around is going to face the 25 per cent unemployment rate that the United states experienced in the 1930s. Capitalists can buy themselves out of any crisis so Long As they make the workers pay Lenin said but its More complicated than that. They did not manage to buy themselves out of the depression mainly because they did not know How to use the government read the taxpayers to restore credit and Confidence. They know now however and they can still buy themselves out of this crisis despite the hitch in the u. S. House of representatives on monday. President George w. Bushes radio talk last week was All about getting the workers to pay when the government asks you to pay for mistakes on Wall Street it does not seem fair and i understand that. And if it were possible to let every irresponsible firm on Wall Street fail without affecting you and your family i would do it. But that is not possible. So were going to bail Wall Street out with $ 700 billion of your Money. The bailout legislation was negotiated with bipartisan support and then the Peoples elected representatives walked. Two thirds of the republicans in the House voted against it but the democrats had the majority to pass it with no Republican support whatsoever. It failed because 94 out of 235 democrats voted against it too. Some republicans argued that they could not support socialistic measures like nationalizing Banks and capping executive salaries but in most cases that was not their real problem and it can hardly have been the democrats problem. What really drove the houses rejection of the Bill was the fact that every member faces re election in five weeks time and the workers sorry i mean the voters dont want to wind up paying for the mistakes of Wall streets capitalists. They will be forced to pay in the end because theress nobody else who can but the timing is bad right now. All 435 representatives have their jobs on the line in the nov. 4 elections and those in marginal constituencies know that they will be severely punished at the polls if they use the taxpayers Money to bail out Wall Street now. A deluge of e mails letters and Calls from outraged voters has made that very Clear to them. After the election will be a different matter and a Bill quite similar to the one that failed this week will probably pass the House then without too much difficulty. There really is a financial crisis and As soon As their own jobs Are Safe the politicians will Deal with it. Or rather they will arrange for the workers As Lenin quaintly called them to Deal with it. In the meantime there will probably be further Bank failures and piecemeal government bailouts in Many countries for the toxic financial instruments based on subprime mortgages Are widely held by Banks and other financial institutions around the world. This does not add up to an economic armageddon although strenuous efforts Are being made in the Media to portray it As exactly that. The Stock Market can crash As it did in 1987 without having much effect on the real Economy. Bank failures Are More serious but they do not have to entail wider economic disaster either. The business Cycle was overdue for a recession anyway and there is certainly going to be one now but despite All the apocalyptic talk it a snot arrived yet. Even the countries where the housing Bubble was biggest and the mortgage lending most reckless the United states and great Britain Are not yet technically in a recession. When it does arrive it will probably be worse than the mild recession of the Early 2000s, but maybe not As bad As the recessions of the Early 1980s and the Early 1990s. It will almost certainly not be As bad As the economic stagnation and runaway inflation of the 1970s, and it will be less bad in the big developing economies than in the developed ones. As for a rerun of the dirty thirties that is not on the table even in the United states where deregulation was most extreme and the creation of impenetrable Complex financial derivatives of doubtful value was most enthusiastic. So you might As Well take what entertainment you can from this spectacle of mass Folly among the High and the mighty. The masters of the universe have been revealed As naive speculators who believed that property values could Only go up. The journalists who preached the blessings of unregulated free markets have been unveiled As Blind ideologues at Best and at worst paid propagandists. The response of american politicians at All Levels has been pathetic. It will be unpunished mass Folly of course these people Are not going to lose their Homes and end up poor. Most wont even lose their jobs. It takes another old commie a pre commie actually to sum it up. In 1852 Karl Marx wrote Hegel remarks somewhere that All great world historical facts and personages occur As it were twice. He has forgotten to add the first time As tragedy the second As farce. Not the great depression but the reign of Folly. Gwynne Dyer is a London based Independent journalist whose articles Are published in 45 countries. The second time As farce bailout will pass after u. S. Politicians safely re elected Gwynne Dyer a 11_ oct 01 08. Ind a11 9/ 30/ 08 7 34 12 pm ;