Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - October 12, 2008, Winnipeg, Manitoba C m y k Page 1 Winnipeg repress. Com perspective Winnipeg free press sunday october 12, 2008 b5 Federal election guide Brandon Souris tory my Merv Tweed represents a Riding that has gone tory since the korean War. Nothing suggests that trend will change tuesday. Charleswood st. James Assiniboia this Riding has been one to watch in the past but not this year. Although the liberals made a fuss Over candidate Bob Friesen the former president of the Canadian federation of agriculture tory my Steven Fletcher appears to be pretty Safe. Churchill Liberal my and actress Tina keeper took the Northern seat last time thanks to a vote split by the nip and an Independent candidate who had been the nip my for the Riding until just before the election. This time new Democrat Niki Ashton wants to win it Back and Sheds been working for months. Both women have enjoyed High profile visits from party leaders past and present. The numbers say Ashton might squeak out a win but much depends on voter turnout in the norths Many first nations communities. Dauphin Swan River Marquette tory my inky Mark marches to the tune of his own drummer bucking his party regularly. But his personal popularity and the popularity of his party will almost certainly propel him to a fifth term. Elmwood Transcona one of two Ridings in Manitoba without an incumbent my on the ballot after the a Dps Bill Blaikie stepped aside. Blaikie owned this seat since 1979. Without him it has become one of the most watched Ridings. Former Winnipeg Jet Thomas Steen is facing off against longtime provincial nip Bac Bencher Jim Maloway. The conservatives have kept Steen a political Rookie largely out of the Public Eye while Maloway has hammered away at the Disraeli Bridge closing As his wedge Issue. Both sides say the race is a tight one. Kildonan st. Paul this Riding got National scrutiny when Liberal candidate Lesley Hughes was punted from her party for an old column about the sept. 11 attacks. Her Campaign effectively shut Down. Some say that hands a re election Victory to tory my Joy Smith. Others say the nip could Siphon off Liberal votes and steal the Riding. Portage Lisgar tory candidate Candice Hoeppner will almost certainly take this sout Central Manitoba seat the safest conservative seat outside Alberta. Sheds been campaigning hard against a Strong roster of local candidates. Provencher this Riding is about As tory As you can get. Former Reform Alliance turned conservative my Vic Toews will easily win Here despite some fears that issues in his personal life might turn off voters in this Bible Belt Riding. His margin of Victory in 2006 topped 19,000 votes. St. Boniface it is the most French Riding in Western Canada and the Only Riding West of Ontario that regularly sends francophone to the House of commons. It is also generally a Safe Liberal seat but not this time. The tories have been creeping up Here Over the last few elections and this time Are finally putting up a francophone and Well known candidate in Winnipeg police officer Shelly Glover. Liberal my Ray Simard won by just More than 1,500 votes in 2006 and Glover has been campaigning non Stop since she announced her candidacy two years ago. Simard might get some help from a less enthusiastic nip Campaign Here but its unclear whether the late Campaign improvements for his party nationally will trickle Down to his name on the ballot. Look to this race to be the real Nail biter on election night. Selkirk Interlake its not exactly a conservative Safe seat and my James Bezan a snot been the most Active of Manitoba maps in Ottawa but regardless Bezan Isnit going anywhere but Back to Ottawa after oct. 14. If former Premier and governor general de Schreyer defeat Bezan in 2006, dont expect candidates with lesser known names to be Able to do it this time. Winnipeg Centre nip my Pat Martin himself has acknowledged Liberal Dan Hurley has been a Good candidate but Martin will still prevail in Winnipeg Centre. Winnipeg North the Only name you really need to know Here is Judy was lycia leis. She is the nip my and will get re elected for the fifth time. Winnipeg South in 2006, conservative Rod Bruino Ogess defeat of Liberal Cabinet minister Reg Alcock was one of the great surprises of the entire election. It was the second closest finish in the country. Bruinooge was rewarded with a parliamentary Secretary position As aide to the Indian affairs minister giving him some valuable face time including last Spring during the residential schools apology. Liberal John Loewen is going to put up a Good fight. Loewen is a former tory la whose biggest claim to Fame in the Manitoba legislature was identifying problems with the Crocus investment fund More than two years before the fund was forced to Stop trading in 2004. Bruinooge will be Tough to beat but with a late Campaign resurgence for the liberals the result Here is anything but a foregone conclusion. Winnipeg South Centre it is perhaps the safest Liberal seat in Western Canada having stayed with the liberals even in 1984, the Only seat West of the Ontario Border the liberals won in that election. But the Liberal margin of Victory has been falling. In 1997, then Liberal Cabinet minister Lloyd Axworthy won by More than 14,000 votes. Anita Neville the my Here since 2000, won by 7,617 in 2004 and then 3,219 in 2006. One poll in 2006 suggested the conservatives were giving Neville a Strong Challenge but she pulled out a Victory. This time the conservatives Are throwing time Money and a Star candidate in former Winnipeg Blue bomber Trevor Kennerd at the Riding hoping to surge past Neville. But Ken nerds socially conservative politics including an anti abortion stance and a lacklustre Campaign by the nip could serve to keep Nevilles Job intact. Still its one Riding to watch. Neville might be the last Liberal to go Down or she might be the last Liberal left standing in Manitoba. Manitoba races when do the polls close Newfoundland 6 p. M. Atlantic 6 30 p. M. Eastern 8 30 p. M. Central 8 30 p. M. Mountain 8 30 p. M. Pacific 9 p. M. The magic numbers 155 seats Harper needs for a majority 40 estimated percentage of the popular vote Harper needs to win 155 seats 124 number of seats Harper won in the 2006 election 36.3 percentage of the popular vote the tories won in 2006 to form a 124 seat minority government 20 estimated minimum percentage of the National vote Jack Layton and the nip need to add significantly to their total seat count 30 when parliament dissolved 80 minimum number of seats conservatives have to win in Atlantic Canada Quebec and Ontario to have any Chance to form a majority government 0 number of seats conservatives won in Canadas biggest three cities in 2006 34 percentage of canadians who live in Canadas biggest three cities 110 seats the liberals need in Atlantic Canada Quebec and Ontario to have a Chance of forming a minority government 15 number of seats in b. C. Considered to be in play in this election races to watch st. Johns South mount Pearl and st. Johns East did Danny Williams anything but conservative Campaign make a difference in Newfoundland the conservatives had three seats Here before the election was called but they dont have an incumbent running in two of those three seats. Both Are considered up for grabs. If the liberals steal two or three from Stephen Harper in Newfoundland right off the hop it puts harpers majority farther out of reach before he even makes it into the maritime. Central Nova did Green party Leader Elizabeth May gain enough National attention to make voters oust defence minister Peter Mackay from this Rural Nova Scotia Riding or will the Green part yes electoral fortunes in 2008 be relegated to Mays inclusion and performance in the National leaders debates Papineau Pierre Trudeau is oldest son Justin is running in this Montreal Riding hoping to unseat a one term bloc my. Will the Trudeau political dynasty be reborn Outremont can nip my Thomas Mulcair become the first Naper to Ever win a Riding in Quebec in a general election elected in a 2007 by election in this Central Montreal Riding Mulcair is a Star for and a potential future Leader of the nip. At one Point in the Campaign the nip hoped to win As Many As 12 seats in Quebec. But if Mulcair cant win in Outremont dont expect the nip to win anywhere else in Quebec either. Parkdale High Park it is an up close and personal look at the head to head Battle the nip and liberals have had throughout this Campaign. Former Liberal leadership hopeful Gerard Kennedy the Man whose Deal to throw support to Stephane Dion is a Large reason Dion ended up winning the Liberal race two years ago is hoping to unseat nip my Peggy Nash. Liberal support in Toronto dipped but recovered near the end of the Campaign. But did it recover enough to get this self professed lefty Liberal into the House of commons was Ana can Ralph Goodale keep the Liberal Flag alive in Saskatchewan word is the former finance minister was in a Tough spot nearing the end of the Campaign. If he loses its Likely the Liberal Brand could be wiped out entirely Between Winnipeg and Vancouver. Surrey North will the spirit of Chuck Cadman return to parliament in the form of his wife Dona Cadman she is the woman whose claims about a bribe offered to her husband by the conservatives before his death in 2005 led to the prime minister launching a defamation suit against Stephane Dion and the liberals. She is also one of the candidates conservatives let talk to reporters asking ramp officers to Block the Media from asking her questions at an event with Harper in september. 6 3 6 2 6 1 6 0 5 11 5 10 5 9 5 8 5 7 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 3 towering above them All according to a recent examination by the new York time the taller candidate won the u. S. Presidential election 17 times since 1896. The Shorter Guy prevailed Only eight times. How do our current leaders measure up Elfo Unalan a 05_ oct 12 08. Ind 1 1 0/ 11/ 08 6 13 29 pm ;