Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - January 4, 2009, Winnipeg, Manitoba C m y k Page 7 from the West and beyond b 7 Winnipeg free press sunday january 4, 2009 Winnipeg repress. Com Freedom of Trade Liberty of religion Equality of civil rights to the Bush Era continued from previous Page so theress a bit of unadulterated Hope. In other domains and regions the picture is More mixed but it is not All dark. In the americas Cuba fumbles its Way toward a Post Castro future with much anxiety but no violence beyond the usual state backed oppression. Here is a place where the Obama administration could ease the transition greatly by ending half a Century of u. S. Sanctions the various left Wing regimes of South America also stagger Onward free for once to succeed or fail on their own without u. S. Intervention. Three andean countries almost stumbled into War in March after Colombia raided a Camp of far guerillas on ecuadorian soil and Venezuela president Hugo Chavez joined the left Wing Leader of Ecuador Rafael Correa in mobilizing troops on the colombian Border. The United states did not encourage Colombia to pursue the conflict however and after a week everybody made up and went Home. For All of Chavez is histrionics the United states never intended to attack his regime directly even under Bushes leadership. Discouraging year Africa below the Sahara has had a deeply discouraging year. The resurgent fighting in Eastern Congo was showing signs of expanding into a major War involving lots of foreign troops by years end and the Darfur War in Sudan was no nearer to Resolution. Ethiopia began pulling its army out of Somalia in december but not before re igniting the somali civil War and somali pirates operating in the Gulf of Aden and further South became a serious Hazard to shipping. Zimbabwe Sank into wretchedness cholera and despair As Robert Mugabe Clung to Power. In Kenya president Mwai Kiwaki and the real Winner of the country is rigged election of december 2007, Raila Odinga managed to forge a Power sharing government in april and began to repair the damage caused by the bloody Post election riots but Mugabe could not do the same. Instead the 84 year old despot betrayed the Power sharing agreement that he had signed with the real Winner of Zimbabwe eds election last March Morgan tvs Angira. Most of Zimbabwe eds Neighbours have refused to bring real pressure on the old thug to quit though Botswana gallantly offered to Host a government in exile. South Africa having seen its president of the past nine years Thabo Beki unceremoniously removed from office by his own party the african National Congress awaits the election of his certain successor Jacob Zuma with some apprehension. Many fear that Zuma will drag South Africa into a swamp of corruption and rabble rousing populism. The big development in the Middle East was the relative fall in violence in Iraq combined with the emergence of an iraqi government confident enough to insist on a deadline for the withdrawal of american troops. Just after Christmas Israel launched massive Aerial attacks on the Gaza strip killing hundreds but a amass rockets continued to fall on nearby israeli towns. The timing of the offensive had much to do with the forthcoming israeli election and the violence May subside once their outcome is Clear. Various governments fretted aloud about Iranus alleged drive for nuclear weapons but the Legal grounds for the complaints were As Flimsy As the Unity of the complainers. Whatever Iran has in mind it can safely get on with it. Pakistan made a shaky transition from the military dictatorship of Pervez Musharraf to a civilian president Asif Ali Sardari in the course of the year although nobody would accuse the governing coalition of parties of being either coherent or stable. Afghanistan remains mired in a civil War with extensive foreign involvement the third major terrorist attack on Mumbai in 15 years in november pushed Indian patience to the breaking Point As once again there was evidence of sponsorship by Pakistan based extremist islamist groups. Few believed that the new pakistani government was sympathetic to these groups Many doubted that it could get them under control. In sri Lanka the government launched yet another final offensive against the separatist tamil tigers in the North and this one has actually been making some headway on the ground. Dozens died in nationalist demonstrations against the chinese regime in Tibet in March and tens of thousands died in the Cyclone that struck Southern Burma in May. Nepal dumped its King and became a Republic in May. Suharto the former dictator who ordered the deaths of at least half a million indonesian communists in the 1960s, invaded East timor in 1975 and caused at least 100,000 deaths there and stole billions of dollars from the indonesian state died peacefully in Jakarta in january. He was never punished for any of it but at least Indonesia is now a democracy. Thailand regrettably is no longer a democracy although the forms persist. Right Wing demonstrators backed by the army the courts and perhaps by the King brought Down two governments in two months and the new regime will have to change the electoral rules to exclude a lot of voters before it dares to Call an election. Chin ass Sichuan province was struck by a powerful earthquake that killed at least 69,000 people in May but three months later the olympics in Beijing were a spectacular Success. Reports that North koreans dear Leader Kim Jongil was ill or dead began to surface in september but the truth of the matter is still not known. Japan had another change of prime minister but nothing else changed. In Europe the big news was the War in the caucasus that erupted in August when Georgia tried to seize the breakaway Republic of South Ossetia one of two ethnic minority areas that have maintained their separation from Georgia Ever since the latter got its Independence from the former soviet Union in 1991. In order to conquer South Ossetia Georgia had to kill or expel the russian peacekeeping troops who were stationed there. Some might see the disparity in the size of the two countries four million georgians 140 million russians As a serious obstacle but georgian president Mikhail Saak Shvili was not deterred. The georgian assault on South Ossetia in Early August however was easily repelled by the russian army which seized control of Large parts of Northern Georgia after the georgian troops broke and fled. A ceasefire stopped the shooting after five Days and russian troops had All left Georgia proper within two months but Moscow did recognize the Independence of South Ossetia and of Abkhazia another ethnic enclave that broke away from Georgia in the 1990s. Expansionist goals some circles in the West believe that this War proves that Russia under prime minister Vladimir Putin has expansionist goals and the Bush administration and several Western european governments promised to bring both Georgia and Ukraine another former soviet Republic into nato. But the tangled facts on the ground argue for a More measured judgment and enthusiasm among nato nations for this course of action is visibly shrinking. There is no reason yet to believe that the West and Russia want a new cold War. Elsewhere in Europe the most exciting political events were the Spanish election in March socialists keep Power the arrest of former bosnian serb Leader Radovan Karadzic in july off to the Hague for trial Green lands vote on increased autonomy in november yes and Ireland is rejection of the new european Union Constitution in a referendum in june. Europe has gone from the worlds most violent continent to its most Placid and most europeans Are quite Happy to have it that Way. In the end after Brussels made a few face saving promises not to impose on Ireland measures that nobody Ever intended to impose on it anyway the Irish government agreed to hold another referendum on the Constitution next year and one last big thing. In january 2008, Oil reached the $ 100 per barrel Mark for the first time in mid july it touched $ 147 per barrel and by late december it was Back Down below $ 50 per barrel. This extreme volatility is exactly what is predicted by most models when we Are at or near Peak Oil and it is entirely possible that we Are there now. If not we will certainly be there within a decade. But this does not necessarily mean regular Oil shortages and permanently High prices because a parallel downshift May be getting underway in the demand for Oil. The United states is about to get serious about greenhouse Gas emissions and that Means that u. S. Oil use is going to fall. A lot of other countries Are already on that track and More will follow. If they All get it right then Oil will be neither scarce nor expensive and nobody will care much about it anyway. Gwynne dyers new Book climate wars has just been published in Canada by random House. Alex Brandon / the associated press archives korean Central news Agency via Korea news service / the associated press archives iraqi journalist top right tosses his shoe at president Bush. Barack Obama above turns Heads while body surfing in Hawaii. North korean Leader Kim Jongil right seen with troops in state photo apparently taken last month. Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe below. A 07_ Jan 04 09. Ind b7 1/ 3/ 09 6 01 47 pm ;