Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - January 5, 2009, Winnipeg, Manitoba C m y k Page b2 b 2 Winnipeg free press monday january 5, 2009 monday special Winnipeg repress. Com y Ouave watched Manitoba hydrous shiny Ultra modern downtown office Tower take shape on Portage Avenue. Now take that Tower and multiply it by 65 and youll have some idea of the kind of construction Hydro has planned for the next decade. As another Gaggle of employees moves downtown today Hydro is getting ready to launch a building program the provinces regulator called unprecedented in the corporations history. Three dams a massive new Power line and another wind farm Are All on the horizon and 2009 is a critical year for them All. Theress a tremendous amount of stuff going on said Byron Williams director of Legal Aid Manitoba ass Public interest Law Centre and the lawyer for consumer and poverty groups at hydrous regulatory hearings. Next year i think Well really be taking a look at the risks and the benefits of these projects and asking ourselves who ought to pay to Days ratepayers or future generations Hydro has just finished a year in limbo. It signed $ 3 billion in Power deals with Wisconsin and Minnesota but find a construction firm willing to build the next big Northern dam. It announced its newest wind farm but the company thatus building it is in financial tailspin. It raked in millions but rates went up by a hefty five per cent and the provincial regulator expressed concern about the company is Long term financial health. Now As u. S. President elect Barack Obama is widely expected to kickstart demand for Green Power Hydro is on the Cusp of an $ 18 billion building Boom while the global Economy is in recession. Heres what to watch for in 2009. What happened in 08 your rates went up big time five per cent in july. Thatus costing you Between $ 3 and $ 6 More a month depending on the size of your House and whether its heated by electricity or natural Gas. It was the first rate hike in three years and it was ordered by the Public utilities Board which is a Little worried about hydrous financial future. The pub doubled the rate hike Hydro asked for which surprised Many. Whats next in 09 there could be another four per cent rate hike come april 1. But there might be some pressure to postpone it since another hike could Hurt families already grappling with the economic downturn. Hydro has said it needs modest increases about three per cent every year for the next decade to keep up with a huge building Boom. Meanwhile lawyer Williams said there could be a debate that starts percolating Over just what Manitoban ought to pay for Power the cheap rate we pay now or something closer to the real Market value which might Spur people to conserve their megawatts. What happened in 08 after nearly two years and a fair amount of dithering Hydro finally chose australian Mega firm Babcock and Brown and Calgary based firm Browark to build the provinces second wind farm slated to be the biggest in Canada at 300 megawatts. It will Sprinkle 130 wind turbines throughout Farmers Fields around st. Joseph and it will Cost a whopping $ 800 million capital fronted not by Hydro but by Babcock and Brown. The problem is Babcock and Brown Are in deep financial trouble and some fear the st. Joseph wind farm wont Ever get built. Whats next in 09 Browark and Babcock and Brown still need to finalize a Power Purchase Deal with Hydro before the first phase of construction can Start later this year. Turbines wont arrive until 2010. Meanwhile dozens of other prospective projects scattered All Over Southern Manitoba Are stalled waiting to see if Hydro moves ahead with another request for proposals for the next wind farm. The doer government has promised to build another 600 megawatts of wind Power. What happened in 08 a lot of planning and not much building. Wus Khatim ran into delays when Hydro did not get a workable bid. But the major building tender was split up into manageable chunks and a consortium of construction firms was hired late in the year. Whats next in 09 real construction on wus Khatim will Start now that Hydro has found a contractor. Wus Khatim will be the first dam Hydro has built in about 20 years and it kicks off a veritable flurry of construction Over the next decade. This year Hydro will decide which Northern dam Kee Yask or Conaw Apa to build next. Kee Yask is smaller but much faster to build and four first nations have already reached a Revenue sharing Deal with Hydro on which the bands will vote in the next couple of months. But Conaw Apa will be the Granddaddy of Northern dams and its Power output is probably needed to meet Export deals and Homegrown needs. Weave got a lot of stuff going on but everything seems to be under control said Hydro ceo Bob Brennan. Ism pretty excited about it. Meanwhile the pub has demanded More transparency from Hydro on just what effect the $ 18 billion building Boom will have on rates in the next decade. More on that below. What happened in 08 not much for All the fuss the transmission line caused in 2007 when the doer government announced it was building the 2,000 megawatt line Down the West Side of Lake Manitoba instead of Down the cheaper faster East Side of Lake Winnipeg. The province did finally table Long awaited legislation to help protect the East sides boreal Forest from development paving the Way for a Enesco world heritage site and effectively killing any Chance of a Power line Down the East Side. Whats next in 09 by summer hydrous experts should have a series of possible routes ready for Public scrutiny along with another round of consultations. Brennan said head also like to get started on the Complex and costly environmental licensing process As soon As possible. Tomorrow would be Good he quipped. The line has to be up and running in eight years. What happened in 08 Only diehard environmental nerds were watching but a Cap and Trade system Manitoba is championing inched closer to creating real tangible Caps and trading rules. The system would cover nearly a dozen Western states and provinces and allow Green companies like Hydro to Trade emissions credits which could mean millions for Manitoba. Whats next in 09 All eyes Are on president elect Barack Obama to see if he embraces a Cap and Trade system and whether he adopts the one Manitoba ass already in. It will be years before Hydro reaps any profits but there could be a nascent debate Over How much that might actually be and what Hydro ought to do with the Cash. Does Hydro continue to keep rates Low or does the provincial government take dividends from its Crown corporation As other provinces like Quebec and b. C. Do what happened in 08 Hydro made big Money $ 340 million thanks to Strong water flows. And the recession especially in the states and especially in the second half of the year did not seem to Dampen Export sales. Thatus something Brennan said hers watching keenly especially if the american manufacturing sector shrinks and quits buying Power. So far weave seen no signs of that he said. Whats next in 09 Hydro was forecast to reap $ 156 million in profits in 2008 09 but Brennan said Hydro will Likely Rake in More than $ 200 million. But the company is also taking on $ 18 billion in debt Over the next 15 years to build three new dams and the dipole. If theress an interest rate hike or the Canadian Dollar keeps fluctuating Hydro could be cutting things too close to the red. Thatus the pubs fear at least. The regulator has demanded a special hearing some time this year to hash out hydrous capital plans what Impact have on rates and the risks that loom Over the next decade like construction costs Domestic Power usage that keeps rising Overly optimistic Export pricing forecasts and a drought. Drought Hydro had its worst one year drought in 2004, which plunged it $ 428 million into the red Ink. The company is risk models say a one year drought happens about once every 10 years. At last Check it appeared water conditions were excellent so a drought does not look Likely. Environmental hearings with Conaw Apa and Kee Yask moving ahead Brennan and Premier Gary doer have mused about streamlining environmental and regulatory hearings maybe doing the Federal and provincial ones together in one shot. A new Way of doing things might emerge in 2009. East West Power Grid Manitoba ass big plan to build Meg transmission lines into Ontario is basically dead even though the doer government Squirrel led away millions for it. Ontario has shown virtually no interest in buying Manitoba ass water Power. Will that change in 2009? Maryagnes. Welch free press. My. Ca Hydro Powers up for the future Brandon Winnipeg Conaw Apa Nelson River henday Northern converter station Radisson Kee Yask Dipoles i & ii st. Joseph wind farm Riel converter station st. Dorsey Thompson wus Khatim Selkirk existing converter station future converter station future generating station coming year to see action on critical Meg projects your Power rates wind Power the dams wus Khatim Conaw Apa and Kee Yask dipole iii Cap and Trade hydrous Bottom line 2009 wild cards Mary Agnes Welch a 02_ Jan 05 09. Ind b2 1/ 4/ 09 9 55 06 pm ;