Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - January 13, 2009, Winnipeg, Manitoba C m y k Page a11 Winnipeg free press tuesday january 13, 2009 View from the West and beyond comment editor Gerald flood 697 7269 Gerald. Flood free press. M. Ca Winnipeg repress. Com a 11 t al Aviv one week before Barack Obama is sworn in As the next u. President Israel and the Arab world will have a Good understanding of the future of american policy in the Middle East. Before being confirmed As Secretary of state Hillary Clinton will testify before the Senate foreign relations committee on her plans for the Region. Cd intones testimony comes at a time when the fighting Between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza strip entered its 19th Day. The fighting has claimed the lives of 905 palestinians most of them civilians and 13 israelis Only seven of them military men. Last week both Israel and Hamas rejected in Security Council Resolution 1860, which called for an end to the fighting. Nevertheless Egypt with the support of France and the u. Is trying to mediate a solution on terms not humiliating to Hamas. Egypt suggested that in return for an israeli withdrawal from the Gaza strip Hamas would agree to a Long term ceasefire and to an International mechanism that would prevent smuggling of arms from Egypt to the Gaza strip. Damascus based Hamas Leader Khaled Mash al rejected the egyptian proposal. Mash al said Hamas would never accept the presence of an International Force in Gaza. He said Israel should withdraw first from the Gaza strip and lift the blockade by opening All the Crossings Between Israel and the Gaza strip. Commenting on Mash alas statement Deputy defence minister Matan Vilnai said it appears that Mash al is not aware of what Hamas had sustained. When Hamas leaders emerge from their bunkers and see the destruction and the freshly dug Graves they will wonder if their iranian inspired provocations were Worth it. Israel was ready to discuss the terms of the egyptian proposal but in Light of a amass initial response it decided to delay sending gen. Amos Gilad to Egypt pending a possible change in Hamas position. French president Nicolas Sarkozy supports the egyptian proposal. He warned israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert that continued fighting risks weakening the chairman of the palestinian authority Mahmoud Abbas As Well As a takeover of the West Bank by Hamas. Even within the israeli Security and diplomatic establishment there Are now discreet debates on what could be considered an israeli Victory. Israel has proven convincingly its deterrence capability. It destroyed More than 200 smuggling tunnels. It killed 360 Hamas commanders and reduced considerably a amass ability to continue launching rockets into Israel. Israel however understands that Hamas will be Able to continue firing rockets into Israel. Moreover Israel made Many palestinians question the Wisdom of Hamas behaviour especially that this policy was inspired and financed by Iran. Palestinians feel that while Hamas leaders continue to hide in their bunkers they have become the real victims of the israeli operation cast Lead. Thus Hamas Learned its lesson the hard Way. Nevertheless israeli strategists Are questioning whether these tactical military gains Are Worth the political Cost of the operation. Like Sarkozy they also question whether these israeli gains would not Lead to the empowerment of Hamas politically at the expense of Mahmoud Abbas. Thus the continued fighting in the Gaza strip could Lead eventually to a result that Israel does not want namely the reoccupation of the entire Gaza strip. The israeli leadership that handles operation cast Lead Ehud Olmert defence minister Ehud Barak and foreign minister Tripi Livni is aware of course of these conflicting sentiments. Consequently and in spite of the continued fighting there is a growing feeling that Israel is nearing its goal of changing the Security situation along the Gaza strip. The israeli Public which has shown its patience and willingness to give its leaders the time needed to achieve this goal also feels that Israel May be approaching the end of the fighting. In such a situation when will operation cast Lead be Over according to All estimates this could certainly happen before Obama is sworn in As president next tuesday. Samuel Segev is the free press Middle East correspondent based in tel Aviv. Fighting in Gaza coming to an end Samuel Segev d Oes Canadian sovereignty Over the Northwest passage still matter to even ask that question seems More than slightly Odd Given the Harper governments frequent use it or lose it rhetoric about the Arctic and the announcement at the beginning of december of changes to the Arctic Waters pollution prevention act. Transport minister John Baird announced that the government intended to extend the application of the act to 200 from 100 nautical Miles in an Effort to control shipping and to Stop the pollution of Arctic Waters a salutary aim. When the act is amended and put into effect Canada will assume responsibility for environmental Protection and enforcement Over an additional Hal million Square Kilometres of the Arctic Ocean. The rhetoric aside this is precisely the right approach to the sovereignty question with Canada responsibly exercising its stewardship Over the entire exclusive economic zone granted it by the United nations convention on the Law of the sea. In other words As Donald Mcrae of the University of Ottawa has suggested lets not play the weak card of always loudly shouting about our sovereignty. Instead let us simply act confidently in the Assurance that the Arctic is ours. The reality of course is that while no one challenges Canadas control Over its Arctic land mass except for a dispute with Denmark Over Hans Islan Canada has Little International support for its claim that the Northwest passage is internal Canadian Waters. The United states the european Union and other nations All maintain that the passage is International. To concede that Canada controls it can have implications on the other Side of the Globe and seafaring states Are fearful of a precedent that might let less responsible nations than Canada close off or seek to exercise control Over International sea routes. Pressing for a definitive Resolution in other words might not result in a decision that pleases canadians. So what to do we certainly need to put More civil and military resources into the North but the key for Ottawa is to continue doing what it has been doing exercising stewardship Over our Arctic and its Waters. Meanwhile events Are unfolding that suggest the question of sovereignty Over the Northwest passage is increasingly Likely to be a transitory problem. The key change of course is that the ice is melting faster than anyone had predicted even a few years ago and not just in the Northwest passage. The passage is a difficult twisting route watched by Canadas radar sat 2 space satellite and some Canadian coast guard and occasional Navy ships and regulated by reasonably stringent environmental controls. But if the rate of melt in the High Arctic continues to increase expectations Are that the North pole May be ice free within five to 15 years thus opening a much Shorter Over the pole route for cargo vessels and giant Oil and Gas tankers. Why then would any Tanker or merchant ship use the Canadian regulated Northwest passage when an easier and cheaper route will be available and one with less stringent regulation in other words Contention Over the sovereignty of the passage will All but vanish if Only a few vessels serving the Canadian Arctic want to use it. This logic suggests that Canada should continue its present largely administrative approach to the passage in dealing with the u. And other maritime Powers for the Short term. Why wave an emotional Flag about an Issue that will soon largely disappear Why even consider going to Law if we might lose so Long As Canada can enforce its pollution controls what else matters but if the melting ice will ease one problem there Are surely new ones that will emerge notably How to control pollution in the Arctic Ocean when shipping and resource exploitation both increase As they will. Instead of fretting about our sovereignty Over the Northwest passage what the Canadian government should be doing now is to Complete As quickly As it can the underwater surveys that will determine the boundaries of our Continental shelf. Parts of the seabed that extend off the shelf will be deemed Canadian allowing Ottawa to extend control beyond the usual 200 nautical mile limit. The More we can get the better. At the same time however Canada should devote its efforts to reinforcing the regional approach that the Arctic Powers u. S., Russia Norway Denmark Greenland and Canada Are already following and strive for agreement on even tougher and More enforceable environmental standards for the ice and Waters of the North pole. The Arctic Ocean ice free or not will always be a delicate ecological area and it is very much in our National interest no matter How much More of the Ocean and its seabed we eventually control that it never be allowed to become a dumping ground for polluting merchant shippers and Mineral and Petroleum extraction companies. Historian j. L. Granatstein is a senior research fellow at the Canadian defence and foreign affairs Institute. Jack Granatstein t he los Angeles police department says that in 2008, for the sixth consecutive year crime fell in the City. At a time when the Economy was reeling and unemployment was rising serious crime dropped about 2.5 per cent Over the previous year. I wish we fully understood Why. During the past two decades scholars have made great Progress in explaining Why some individuals Are More Likely than others to commit crimes but very Little in explaining Why the crime rate in a City or nation rises or Falls. Everyone knows that there is More crime in economically depressed inner City neighbourhoods than in affluent suburbs. That leads naturally to the Assumption that if a Community becomes More prosperous crime rates will go Down and if income Levels decline crime rates go up. Economists who have checked this View have discovered that it is often True but not always. They have found for example that the burglary rate goes up by two percentage Points for every one percentage Point increase in the unemployment rate. That sounds like a big change until you realize that if the unemployment rate rises from six per cent to eight per cent the burglary rate will increase by four per cent. Because burglaries Arentt measured All that accurately some Are never reported and police vary in How they report the statistics its not certain that we even would notice so Small an increase. A lot of other factors affect the crime rate As Well. It often goes up when the population gets younger and when drug abuse becomes More common. Murder rates Are profoundly influenced at least in big cities by gang activity. We dont have Good ways of understanding Why gang activity changes although we suspect that changes in behaviour Are influenced by what the police do whether gang truces have worked and whether gangs Are fighting Over drug and other illegal transactions. All these imponderables make it difficult to understand fully Why crime rates Rise and fall. In the 1960s, the National homicide rate Rose by 43 per cent even though the country was in a period of great Prosperity and Low unemployment. The homicide rate fell in the 1980s, even As the Economy was wobbling with High interest rates and a Steep Rise in business bankruptcies. In the 1990s, the murder rate fell by 39 per cent at a time when unemployment also was declining. So can the Economy help explain fluctuations in crime sometimes yes sometimes no. It would be difficult to link rising crime during the prosperous 1960s to economics. On the other hand a declining Economy provides a plausible theory to explain increases in crime during the 1990s. Matters become even More complicated if one goes Back to the depression of the 1930s. We had no Fri data on crime rates at that time but several studies of individual cities suggest that crime rates fell even though one Quarter of All americans were unemployed. Why one reasonable hypothesis is that the depression pulled families together and this cohesion inhibited crime. If you Are not yet fully confused by the historical puzzles in the crime Economy link add this one. It is possible that rising crime rates Are a cause rather than an outgrowth of unemployment. Some Young men choose to drop out of school or the workforce to sell drugs Rob stores or Mug people. They abandon legitimate jobs and so drive up the unemployment rate to take on illegal jobs and so drive up the crime rate. The role of the police in reducing crime is often overlooked by those preoccupied with the jobs crime link. The Sharp decline in crime in new York and now in los Angeles has a lot to do with How those police departments changed. Over the past several decades new York has experienced the country is largest decline in crime since we began keeping records. The reasons Are not fully understood but include a 33 per cent increase in the size of the new York police department an excellent computerized system for tracking crime a management style that made precinct commanders fully accountable for managing crime in their districts and an aggressive policy of searching people on the streets for guns. L. A. Police chief William j. Bratton has brought some of those tactics to los Angeles without alas a one third increase in the number of officers. What he has accomplished without a big increase in the size of his Force has been remarkable. To try to sort out the combined and Complex relations Between crime and the Economy the age of the population imprisonment police work neighbourhood culture and gang activity the National Academy of sciences committee on Law and Justice which i chair has begun an Effort to explain something that no one has yet explained Why do crime rates change if you have any Good ideas let me know. James Wilson teaches at Pepperdine University and is the author of thinking about crime the co author of crime and human nature and the co editor of crime Public policies for crime control. Los Angeles times the Rise and fall of crime its not Clear Why Urban violence goes up and Down by James q. Wilson melting ice cools debate Over passage a 11_ Jan 13 09. Ind a11 1/ 12/ 09 6 38 24 pm ;