Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - July 22, 2013, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A9 T HE Selinger government has the recommendation it wanted from its own environmental watchdog's Bipole III report. With this, it can now approve its westside route, costing $ 2.5 to $ 3.5 billion more than one down the east side. Manitoba citizens will be paying off this debt in the form of electricity bills or taxes for generations. All this to produce hydroelectric power for a market fast- dwindling to non- existent. The U. S. is now well on its way to energy self- sufficiency. Manitobans will be left to give away excess energy produced at excessive cost in dollars, wildlife habitat, farmers' livelihoods and way of life. The argument for UNESCO World Heritage designation carries no weight as a natural area, as this same government plans an all- weather road through the boreal forest - the Bipole III line would cause far less collateral damage and save billions in lower debt for taxpayers. This questions the government's ability to govern in the best interests of Manitobans. The debt burden and subsequent necessary rate and tax hikes will discourage future population growth and business development. The root cause of this debacle is lack of due diligence on a macro- assessment of Manitoba Hydro's long- term investment plans in the context of structural changes in the North American energy future. Hydro, once the infrastructure is installed, is relatively green, but it is no longer the least costly. The Clean Environment Commission has completed its kabuki dance ( a U. S. political term derived from Japanese theatre where the conclusion is already known). Its report includes much gnashing of teeth, some of which could be very helpful to future assessment processes, but in the end, the predictable happened: Manitoba Hydro can be issued a licence to construct Bipole III along a circular route to Winnipeg. Hydro was part of the dance, too. They produced a very detailed environmental impact statement that missed the mark in terms of what was needed by a long margin. But then, they assumed the result was preordained, so why try to explain the unexplainable? Although a licence still awaits further legally required consultations with aboriginal people, particularly M�tis, there seems to be a determination to go ahead with the west- side route as soon as this " distraction" has been addressed. Despite all evidence to the contrary, Premier Greg Selinger has given not any indication he will reconsider, even though in a backhand way his own environment commission has given him much to ponder. Here is what supports a rethinking of the entire project ( some of which has been noted by the CEC). The final cost will exceed $ 5.5 billion when all monetary costs are counted, including significant compensation to farmers affected. Although Hydro projects the effects for 50 years, everyone knows they will continue much longer. Some time in the future, there may be export opportunities to the U. S., but current conditions indicate there are many other options available to U. S. consumers. Impacts on woodland caribou, a species already in decline, could be highly significant. Will the trees and plants affected by the route be put in the fridge so they can be re- planted and the line removed if the impacts are too great? Similarly, if bird strikes exceed Hydro's projection of 18 per kilometre each year ( a more likely figure is more than 100) are exceeded, will the line be moved? Hydro never attempted to count bird strikes on existing Bipole lines. Not even mentioned in the CEC report is the high risk of locating a power line through a tornado- prone alley to the west and south of Lake Manitoba, even though security was emphasized during the hearings. The IUCN, UNESCO's advisory body for World Heritage natural areas, has concluded the east side does not meet the criteria, and that the proposed all- weather road as well as area boundaries present problems. ICOMOS, the adviser on cultural matters, continues to have concerns, but is trying to find a solution. The recent committee meeting deferred the proposal, pending further consultations. Within this context, it might be possible to reconsider a carefully selected east- side route for Bipole III and avoid most of the major issues facing the western route. Evidence provided to the CEC indicates there are route alternatives that are less expensive that have less impact than the current one. Evidence also has been provided that the world of Manitoba Hydro will not come to an end if Bipole III is deferred pending further analysis of route options. Manitoba Hydro and the Selinger government ( if indeed there is any difference) have had their heads in the sand on this for some time, but the fact is markets are not what they were projected to be, so why spend money now? There is a solution. While consultations are underway, why not also consult with east- side communities about ways to locate Bipole III through that area. Such consultations will need time and, most importantly, a capacity to listen. Perhaps using a " talking stick" or similar approach might be considered. This process needs to accept all the concerns of all parties, then raise the discussion to a new level that seeks ways that allow everyone to win. Untangling this mess would benefit all affected. The extra cost of the western route, even using Hydro's numbers, is at least $ 1 billion more. Why not consider allocating some portion of these funds to an endowment for use by east- side communities for economic and social development within a sustainable context defined by those communities? They could use the funds to derive benefits from their stewardship of the boreal area, attracting tourists to the places and in the numbers that respect their objectives. Concurrently, Manitoba ratepayers would feel some relief and know the money is being put to a much better use than one that penalizes farmers, birds and wildlife The CEC, albeit in a rather awkward way, has given the Selinger government some food for serious thought, and an opportunity to change course for everyone's benefit. Jim Collinson is a management consultant specializing in the complexities surrounding energy, economy and environment issues. For two terms, he was president of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Winnipeg Free Press Monday, July 22, 2013 A 9 POLL �� TODAY'S QUESTION Would you see the Winnipeg Fringe Theatre Festival play Hollywood Hen Pit? �� Vote online at winnipegfreepress. com �� PREVIOUS QUESTION Would you be willing to ride a riverboat to Bombers games? YES 58% NO 42% TOTAL RESPONSES 3,148 Winnipeg Free Press est 1872 / Winnipeg Tribune est 1890 VOL 141 NO 246 2013 Winnipeg Free Press, a division of FP Canadian Newspapers Limited Partnership. Published seven days a week at 1355 Mountain Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R2X 3B6, PH: 697- 7000 BOB COX / Publisher PAUL SAMYN / Editor JULIE CARL / Deputy Editor I N the 1990s John DiIulio, a conservative American academic, argued a new breed of " superpredators... kids that have absolutely no respect for human life and no sense of the future," would terrorize Americans almost indefinitely. He was not alone. Experts were convinced crime would keep rising. Law- abiding citizens would retreat to gated communities, patrolled by security guards. Politicians and police chiefs could do little except bluster and try to fiddle the statistics. DiIulio later recanted, and it is clear the pessimists were wrong. Even as he was writing, America's crime wave was breaking. Its cities have become vastly safer, and the rest of the developed world has followed. From Japan to Estonia, property and people are now safer than at almost any time since the 1970s. Confounding expectations, the recession has not interrupted the downward trend. Even as America furiously debates the shooting of Trayvon Martin, new data show the homicide rate for young Americans is at a 30- year low. Some crimes have all but died out. Last year, there were just 69 armed robberies of banks, building societies and post offices in England and Wales, compared with 500 a year in the 1990s. In 1990, some 147,000 cars were stolen in New York. Last year, fewer than 10,000 were. In the Netherlands and Switzerland, street dealers and hustlers have been driven out of city centres; addicts there are now elderly men, often alcoholics, living in state hostels. In countries such as Lithuania and Poland, the gangsters who trafficked people and drugs in the 1990s have moved into less violent activities like fraud. Cherished social theories have been discarded. Conservatives who insisted the decline of the traditional nuclear family and growing ethnic diversity would unleash an unstoppable crime wave have been proved wrong. Young people are increasingly likely to have been brought up by one parent and to have played a lot of computer games. Yet they are far better- behaved than previous generations. Left- wingers who argued crime could never be curbed unless inequality was reduced look just as silly. There is no single cause of the decline; rather, several have coincided. Western societies are growing older, and most crimes are committed by young men. Policing has improved greatly in recent decades, especially in big cities such as New York and London, with forces using computers to analyze the incidence of crime. In some parts of Manhattan, this helped to reduce the robbery rate by more than 95 per cent. The epidemics of crack cocaine and heroin appear to have burned out. The biggest factor may be simply that security measures have improved. Car immobilizers have killed joyriding; bulletproof screens, security guards and marked money have all but done in bank robbery. Alarms and DNA databases have increased the chances a burglar will be caught. At the same time, the rewards for burglary have fallen because electronic gizmos are so cheap. Even small shops now invest in closedcircuit television cameras and security tags. Some crimes now look very risky - and that matters because, as every survey of criminals shows, the main deterrent for crime is the fear of being caught. Many conservatives will think this list omits the main reason crime has declined: the far harsher prison sentences introduced on both sides of the Atlantic over the past two decades. One in every 100 American adults is now in prison. This has obviously had some effect - a young man in prison cannot steal your car - but if tough prison sentences were the cause, crime would not be falling in the Netherlands and Germany, which have reduced their prison populations. New York's prison population has fallen by a quarter since 1999, yet its crime rate has dropped faster than that of many other cities. Harsh punishments, and in particular long mandatory sentences for certain crimes, increasingly look counterproductive. American prisons are full of old men, many of whom are well past their criminal years, and non- violent drug users, who would be better off in treatment. In California, the pioneer of mandatory sentencing, more than a fifth of prisoners are older than 50. To keep each one inside costs taxpayers $ 47,000 a year. And because prison stresses punishment rather than rehabilitation, most of what remains of the crime problem is really a recidivism issue. In England and Wales, for example, the number of first- time offenders has fallen by 44 per cent since 2007. The number of offenders with more than 15 convictions has risen. Politicians seem to have grasped this. In America, the number of new mandatory sentences enacted by Congress has fallen. Even in the Republican South, governors such as Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal have adopted policies favouring treatment over imprisonment for drug users. Britain has stopped adding to its prison population. But more could be done to support people when they come out of prison ( at the moment, in Britain, they get 46 pounds) and to help addicts. In the Netherlands and Switzerland, addiction to hard drugs is being reduced by treatment rather than by punishment. American addicts, by contrast, often get little more than counselling. Policing can be sharpened, too - and, in an era of austerity, will have to be. Now that officers are not rushed off their feet responding to car thefts and burglaries, they can focus on prevention. Predictive policing, which employs data to try to anticipate crime, is particularly promising. More countries could use civilian " community support officers" of the sort employed in Britain and the Netherlands, who patrol the streets, freeing up better- paid police officers to solve crimes. Better- trained police officers could focus on new crimes. Traditional measures tend not to include financial crimes such as credit card fraud or tax evasion. Since these are seldom properly recorded, they have not contributed to the great fall in crime. Unlike rapes and murders, they do not excite public fear. But as policing adapts to the technological age, it is as well to remember that criminals are doing so, too. Well, we're big rock singers, we got golden fingers and we're loved everywhere we go. We sing about beauty and we sing about truth, at $ 10,000 a show. We take all kinds of pills to give us all kind of thrills, but the thrill we've never known is the thrill that'll getcha when you get your picture on the cover of the Rolling Stone. - Dr. Hook and the Medicine Show, 1972 T HE biggest question Bostonians have about the bombing in their city on Patriot Day is the one they've had since right after suspected terrorist Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was arrested in April: What turns a kid who was not just loved but beloved - the favourite of multiple teachers and coaches, and of many classmates - into someone who could look his victims in the eye before blowing them up, then head off to the gym? Janet Reitman's Rolling Stone piece about Jahar, as the younger Tsarnaev brother was known to his American friends, is an earnest attempt to answer that question. Some critics insist it's mostly the glam photo on the cover that offends them; it does look like a PR shot for a member of a boy band. But that Reitman has been getting death threats and around- the- clock calls on her cellphone from strangers who say they hope she dies in a terrorist attack suggests the push- back is about a lot more than a soft- focus selfie. Is terrorizing her standing up against terrorism, or becoming what you hate? The magazine writer isn't giving interviews but said on her Facebook page she is surprised and scared by the reaction. Saying Boston is protective of its own is like saying Washington summers are on the warm side; Bostonians want the feelings of the bombing victims put first, second and third, and who can blame them? One of the women who lost a leg in the blasts told me she didn't want to talk about the Rolling Stone piece, and it's not hard to understand why. In an earlier interview, she said she and others working so hard to recover are husbanding all their energies for healing and will not be giving anything more to the bombers than they have already taken. MSNBC host Lawrence O'Donnell, who is from Boston, castigated Reitman's work at some length on his cable show, saying her piece " spends most of its time in romantic reminiscence of what a great kid Jahar was, as described by many of his friends." He added, " Now, I talked to many of those kids myself on the streets of Cambridge, and I found them - as the article does - completely mystified about how their nice- guy friend could possibly have been involved with the bombing. I, therefore, found them ultimately rather uninteresting people to talk to once that point was made." Then again, O'Donnell often finds many of his own guests uninteresting to talk to - or to listen to, anyway. Although Reitman's profile does not romanticize Tsarnaev, the profile is an inherently friendly form, by which I mean hostility is a barrier to figuring out what makes any story subject tick. Even if the result is withering, a writer has to feel some empathy for the subject to make such a piece work. Previous Rolling Stone covers featured Charles Manson and O. J. Simpson, yet the fact most covers go to music stars made the decision to put Tsarnaev there controversial. As understandable and predictable as the pushback is, however, I'm still glad Rolling Stone has the piece - and continued work on a puzzle we'll spend years trying to fit together. Jeff Seglin, who writes a weekly ethics column called the Right Thing and is a public policy lecturer at Harvard's Kennedy School, says the negative reaction is a little like that of the Polish peasant in Isaac Bashevis Singer's Enemies, a Love Story, who after coming through the Holocaust is shocked that there are books on the subject of Hitler: " They write books about such swine?" Seglin thinks that the Rolling Stone cover photo is journalistically defensible - and, in fact, that it is perfectly in keeping with the article's point that this was an ordinary kid gone terribly wrong. Defensible if, that is, the magazine's editors at least grappled with the ethical issue of how using the photo might upset bombing victims and others. The magazine isn't answering questions about the piece, beyond a statement of sympathy for the victims posted on its website. I'm guessing Boston Mayor Tom Menino was right when he said the controversy was part of the magazine's marketing strategy - but is it wrong to want work you're proud of to be widely read? At the time of the bombing, I was living in Cambridge, Mass., where my son was enrolled in the high school Tsarnaev and his older brother, Tamerlan, attended, and I know how much pain was inflicted on a city I came to care about in my few months there. But if publishing the photo was so outrageous, why was it OK for critics to share it all over social media? And isn't the corporate censorship by the stores that have elected not to carry this issue of the Rolling Stone in a sense scoring one for the terrorists by undermining free speech? They shouldn't sell Boston so short. Because, ultimately, as Boston Globe columnist Yvonne Abraham wrote, her city is way too tough to be knocked around by a picture on a magazine. Melinda Henneberger is a Post political writer and She the People anchor who spent the past semester as a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Shorenstein Center. - The Washington Post By Melinda Henneberger Crime decline defies left, right The Economist JIM COLLINSON Bipole III still could benefit all It's only the cover of Rolling Stone A_ 09_ Jul- 22- 13_ FP_ 01. indd A9 7/ 21/ 13 6: 55: 34 PM ;