Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - February 10, 2014, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A11 H ALIFAX - By 2018, if shale gas is found and the proposed TransCanada pipeline is built, New Brunswick's economy will be booming and the government will table a balanced budget, the province's first in more than a decade. This prediction of better times ahead was the only good news to emerge from the stand- pat, pre- election budget Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservative administration tabled this week in Fredericton. There were no increases in taxes or fees, but only because those were hiked in last year's budget. Spending on operations and programs has been brought under control, but a sluggish economy and lower- than- expected revenues offset the belt- tightening on the expenditure side. And while next year's deficit is projected to be lower, just shy of $ 400 million, it will bring the net debt to more than $ 12 billion by 2015. That's a staggering figure for a small province with a population that dropped by almost 1,000 last year, to about 756,000. New Brunswick's per- capita debt is already $ 14,623, the second- highest in the country, auditor general Kim MacPherson reckoned in her latest annual report. Neighbouring Nova Scotia leads the debt race to the bottom, by a slim $ 100 a head. Finance Minister Blaine Higgs announced little new spending in Tuesday's budget. There will be modest increases in welfare rates, better prescription drug coverage and $ 35 million for new infrastructure projects, but little else that might woo voters. " This is not a typical election budget," he admitted. " We are staying the course." It was the Alward government's fourth deficit budget since coming to power in 2010, and it breaks a campaign promise to deliver a balanced budget during its mandate. That promise seemed as impossible then as it has proven to be elusive now. But Higgs predicts the province is on track to post a $ 119- million surplus in the 2017- 18 fiscal year. Alward and his finance minister are banking on an economic boost from petroleum- related development to pull the province out of deficit. In his annual state of the province address last week, Alward promised access to more timber on Crown land to revitalize the forest industry, which has long been the backbone of the province's economy. But the premier also envisioned a bright future in which New Brunswick is transformed into " a critical player in the global energy market." Exporting Alberta crude to the world and developing the province's natural gas reserves, he said, could translate into billions of dollars in new investment and thousands of construction jobs. But a lot of puzzle pieces have to fall into place first. The promoters of the 4,500- kilometre Energy East Pipeline project, which would bring western Canadian oil to Saint John, have yet to file for regulatory approval. And the search for natural gas in New Brunswick has met with violent protests that are likely to escalate if development proceeds. Alward ousted Liberal premier Shawn Graham in the last election, the first time a New Brunswick government was denied a second term since Confederation. The Liberals, with a new leader and a commanding lead in the polls, appear certain to return the favour in the fixeddate election set for Sept. 22. Premier- in- waiting Brian Gallant is an energetic young lawyer - he'll turn 32 this year - and in little more than a year as leader he has put the Liberals back on top. The party was the choice of almost half of New Brunswickers in the most recent poll conducted by Halifax- based Corporate Research Associates. Alward's Tories have been relegated to a second- place tie with the New Democrats, with 25 per cent support. Gallant points to the string of deficit budgets as proof the Tories have " lost all credibility when it comes to fiscal management." The Liberals talk of rebranding New Brunswick as " the smart province" and investing in skills training and information technology startups; while the costs and details of their plans remain vague, voters seem determined to give them another chance. New Brunswick's energy dreams might yet come true. But if the polling numbers hold for another seven months, the premier and finance minister who take the credit for bringing order to the province's finances in 2018 won't be Progressive Conservatives. They'll be Liberals. Dean Jobb, a professor of journalism at the University of King's College in Halifax, is the Winnipeg Free Press East Coast correspondent. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Winnipeg Free Press Monday, February 10, 2014 A 9 POLL �� TODAY'S QUESTION Are you satisfied with Canada's performance so far at the Olympics? �� Vote online at winnipegfreepress. com �� PREVIOUS QUESTION Should Winnipeg police crack down on head shops? YES 34% NO 66% TOTAL RESPONSES 5,400 Winnipeg Free Press est 1872 / Winnipeg Tribune est 1890 VOL 142 NO 91 2014 Winnipeg Free Press, a division of FP Canadian Newspapers Limited Partnership. Published seven days a week at 1355 Mountain Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R2X 3B6, PH: 204- 697- 7000 BOB COX / Publisher PAUL SAMYN / Editor WFP JULIE CARL / Deputy Editor SCAN TO VOTE ON TODAY'S QUESTION DEAN JOBB Deficits doom N. B. regime P OLITICALLY, we may have a vague idea of what exactly will happen in Afghanistan after 2014. Economically, however, we can quite accurately predict Afghanistan will return to its former life of poverty. Even the riches that supposedly rained on Afghanistan between 2002 and 2013 didn't ease its agony. Most of the money never reached it. According to estimates, out of each dollar earmarked for that country, only 14 cents reached it. Yet, it was still a lot of money for a country with a yearly per capita income of less than $ 300. The money that actually made its way to Afghanistan was either stolen outright or spent on projects that were badly conceived, shoddily constructed or never got off the ground. And only relatives of the political elite or people otherwise close to it got most of the contracts. That wouldn't be the worst of all scenarios if the newly rich had invested their money in their country. But they didn't. They preferred to park their money in foreign banks or buy real estate in foreign countries. In short, after a massive inflow of funds, the Afghan government, backed by the international community, has neither built a functioning economy nor created a self- sufficient financial foundation to pay the country's bills. Whatever might happen to Afghanistan's economy after 2014, it will be inconsequential to 95 per cent of Afghanistan's population. Nothing will change in their lives. They were either low- paid salaried employees of the government or eked out a subsistence living by farming their tiny plots of land before the United States invaded their country. They will continue to be inefficient and low- paid government employees or go on working their land after the U. S.- led international community leaves Afghanistan. This vast majority of Afghans was utterly neglected by both the Afghan authorities and the donor community. It was as if these mainly illiterate and poverty- stricken people didn't exist. They were considered, it seems, to be a faceless mass with no needs, no wants and no hopes. Nobody seriously bothered to devise a sensible and practicable plan to help them better their lives. Here are a few examples of Afghanistan's economic strength and where help should have been concentrated: The country's cotton yield, once a valuable commodity for foreign and internal markets, has declined to a mere 15 per cent of its former harvest. Fruits have always been a mainstay of Afghanistan's agricultural production. Planeloads of fresh fruits were flown abroad. The production and exportation of dried fruits was another profitable item and provided reliable jobs for large numbers of people. To revive these sectors, the growers and producers needed help with accessing improved seeds and saplings to upgrade their products and rebuild their decimated tree stocks. They needed refrigerated storage centres to prolong the shelf life of their merchandise so they could sell it gradually at stable prices, avoiding having to rush to the market and dumping their wares at any price to prevent it from rotting before their eyes. Another way to help the peasants would have been to teach them how to clean, sort and pack their products professionally, enabling them to sell their goods in richer markets in order to secure higher profits. Instead, Afghan authorities and foreign experts installed generators in some villages. Most of the affected villagers did not know how to operate and service the machines. Moreover, they lacked the money to buy the diesel to run them. Helping this large segment of Afghan society would have not been expensive. In the virtually cashless and unimaginably impoverished Afghan countryside, the dollar goes far and much could have been done with less if people with some imagination and goodwill had gone about the task. Neither has much progress taken place in other sectors of the economy. For example, Afghanistan once had a vibrant textile industry, employing thousands of workers. Today, there is no textile manufacturing to speak of. While billions of tons of limestone await processing, cement factories remain closed or operate marginally, and 95 per cent of the country's cement is imported. Most of the country has no electricity. The large power plant USAID built outside Kabul at a cost of more than $ 200 million is shut down. Its diesel- operated generators are extremely expensive to run and the Afghan government can't pay for it. At the moment, the city of Kabul purchases most of its electricity from Tajikistan and the international community pays for it. Who will cover the cost post- 2014 is not clear. What is clear is the Afghan administration lacks the fund to pay the bill. In describing this utterly negative situation, I am not trying to imply nothing positive has been achieved in Afghanistan. Many schools have been opened. Girls are free to go to school and more than a million do. Kabul University has been partially rebuilt and is back in business. Some roads and bridges have been built and others repaired. Some of what has been done will continue and some may not be sustainable. What I believe must be said, however, is both the international community and the Afghan government have failed to lift Afghanistan out of its pre- 2001 broken condition. When the rich flow of money becomes a trickle or stops altogether, the warlords will resume their previous fight for resources and the protection of their fiefdoms. Afghanistan is today and will remain after 2014 a failed state with all the perils that entails both for the U. S. and the international community. Nasir Shansab is a former leading Afghan industrialist and is the son of Afghanistan's once minister of agriculture. Forced to leave his country in 1975, Shansab now lives in Washington D. C. and holds dual U. S. and Afghan citizenship. He is the author of Silent Trees: A Novel of Afghanistan, set in Afghanistan prior to the Soviet invasion. - Allen Media Strategies LLC T HE Obama administration is shocked - Shocked! - that Afghan President Hamid Karzai was secretly negotiating with the Taliban. The previously undisclosed negotiations certainly explain what White House adviser John Podesta recently called Karzai's " erratic" behaviour in refusing to negotiate an agreement to keep U. S. forces in the country after 2014. But what, exactly, is so terrible about Karzai negotiating separately with the same Taliban the United States has repeatedly tried and failed to engage? In fact, although the Taliban are very likely playing the outgoing president, he is exactly the person who should be trying to negotiate an entrance to Afghan politics for the Taliban that would not involve mass killings of people who sided with the U. S. No doubt, Karzai is trying to save his own skin. But there is at least a chance he could save the lives of many other Afghans, too. The place to begin an analysis of Karzai's efforts is with a clear- eyed account of the U. S. strategic position in Afghanistan relative to the Taliban. North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops have not lost their fight against the group. But neither has NATO won - and in a war of attrition, which the Afghan conflict has been for 12.5 years, this failure to win counts as a species of defeat. The Obama administration has sought to redefine its goals in Afghanistan as fighting al- Qaida. But this does not change the fact the overwhelming majority of the U. S.' s energy during most of this long war has been spent on the Taliban and its allies. As the U. S. draws down its troops, whether to 10,000 or to zero, the Taliban will no longer be facing the most technologically advanced army on Earth. They will be facing several hundred thousand newly trained Afghan troops, whose morale is uncertain and whose battle readiness is at best variable. Perhaps the Afghan army can continue an effective counterinsurgency for years, perhaps for months. Much depends on the extent of U. S. support. Either way, the Taliban can wait out the U. S., as they have from the start. Eventually, the Afghan government will either have to reach an accommodation with the Taliban or be defeated by them. The Obama administration acknowledged as much as it unsuccessfully sought to negotiate with the Taliban itself, efforts suspended most recently in June 2013. Enter Karzai, who has publicly criticized U. S.- Taliban talks and refused to join them. Karzai understands perfectly well the Afghan alliance with the U. S. is a diminishing asset as it moves closer to withdrawal. Under the Afghan constitution, he may not serve another term, so if the U. S. remains the power behind the throne, he will have to step down in the spring. That would leave him the choice of remaining in Afghanistan, vulnerable to revenge killing by the Taliban, or going into powerless exile from the country he has led for a decade. The main thing Karzai has to offer the Taliban is the chance to take over the government without much of a fight. What he would seek in return is, presumably, his own life be spared, and perhaps that he be given some degree of respect and importance, maybe even some sort of a formal role in a future Taliban- controlled government. Perhaps Karzai believes he has a chance to become the Taliban's figurehead president. That would help the Taliban solve the problem of international legitimacy. And he has years of experience as a front man for the Americans. The Taliban may see the benefits of participating in the international community, an aspiration they did not seriously entertain when they ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The odds are the Taliban are stringing Karzai along, just as they have strung along the U. S. by proffering the possibility of negotiations only to resume violence. But what of it? Assume the Taliban are playing their usual long game; neither Karzai nor the Americans are any worse off negotiating with them than not negotiating. And Karzai's efforts have a potential upside the U. S. negotiations lack. For Karzai's life to be spared and his presence to be tolerated would be a powerful signal to Afghans who allied themselves with the U. S. that Taliban rule will not come with vicious retaliation. The Taliban right now must be asking themselves whether to engage in de- Americanization in a post- conflict Afghanistan. A glance at U. S. efforts to de- Ba'athify Iraq, which led to bloodshed and chaos, may be all it takes for them to conclude the benefits are not worth the costs. Why resort to a reign of terror if the people are already willing to accept your rule? Perhaps the deepest ethical obligation the U. S. faces in leaving Afghanistan is to those Afghans who, at great personal risk and sacrifice, stood beside the U. S. during its years as invader, occupier and defender of their country. They are the people most gravely at risk after a Taliban takeover. For better or worse, the best- known of these people is the flawed and human Karzai. His struggle to save his own skin is probably the best chance of helping them save theirs. Noah Feldman, a law professor at Harvard University and the author of Cool War: The Future of Global Competition, is a Bloomberg View columnist. - Bloomberg News NOAH FELDMAN Will bloodbath follow U. S. withdrawal? NASIR SHANSAB Afghanistan - the bitter end Afghan President Hamid Karzai A_ 09_ Feb- 10- 14_ FP_ 01. indd A11 2/ 9/ 14 5: 00: 25 PM ;