Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - February 13, 2014, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A15 F LIN FLON - Open up and say " ahhh." Take two and call me in the morning. Catch a 12- hour bus ride. Those first two statements are welcome instructions for northern Manitoba patients, but the third? Not so much. For far too long, frequent ( not to mention costly and exhausting) travel to Winnipeg for specialized care has been one of the most enduring tribulations of northern health care. Thankfully a partial remedy, at least, is in the works. Helga Bryant, the energetic, silver- haired CEO of the Northern Health Region, is striving toward a more self- reliant north where patients access a greater number of specialists closer to home. " This isn't about lessening any of our sites," she told the Flin Flon and District Chamber of Commerce last month. " This is in fact about growing and instilling even more pride in our sites, because they're going to do more of what they're really good at doing and they're going to become the regional experts in that." Bryant envisions patients from across the region travelling less often down south and more often to Thompson, The Pas and Flin Flon - the region's three major centres - for different services. Thompson, she noted, already has many specialists who could be seeing more patients from across the broader north. Flin Flon, with its current equipment and expertise, could be better utilized for endoscopy, the camera- assisted exploration of the inner body. The NHR is so serious about the plan, it recently hired a consulting firm to help determine how best to organize clinical services within the vast, sparsely populated region. Bryant said this will include developing " little mini- centres of excellence" in different specialties across the three larger communities. Talks are also ongoing with the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority to have doctors, specialists and other care providers split their time between the Winnipeg and northern health regions. This would let professionals maintain their preferred big- city lifestyle while still bringing their sought- after skills to the north. " That's not years down the road - that's months down the road, I would say," Bryant, a registered nurse by profession, said. Unfortunately, the NDP government dealt Bryant's vision of more inter- region health travel a blow by yanking a subsidy from Greyhound in 2012. That terminated daytime bus service between Flin Flon and The Pas as well as all service between Flin Flon, Snow Lake and Thompson. If you don't have access to a car, good luck. But without offering details, Bryant said travel solutions are in the offing. " We will all hear about ( that) when the time is right," she said. Even if transportation is resolved, Bryant has her work cut out for her, if for no other reason than retaining professionals, particularly in health care, can be a David and Goliath struggle in this part of the province. Then again, there are success stories on which to build. Take, for instance, the Thompson- based Northern Health Region Pain Clinic, where services basically are on par with those of Winnipeg. There's also the fact that in many cases travel is no longer necessary to connect patients with faraway specialists. Usage of the MBTelehealth program, a Skype- like distance- delivery program, has exploded in the last decade. If Bryant is hoping to grab the province's attention with her plan - which she surely is - she enjoys a benefit no other northern Manitoba health- care advocate ever had. As the inaugural head of the nearly twoyear- old NHR, borne out of the amalgamation of the old Burntwood and Nor- Man regional health authorities, she represents virtually all of the north. " There is now one voice for northern Manitoba," Bryant said, calling this " a huge advantage." Still, northerners are under no illusion that we will one day enjoy absolute healthcare parity with our southern counterparts. Realistically, extreme emergencies and many precise specialties will always warrant trips to big cities. But with sensible investments and strong leadership, we can and should be doing better than we are. Bryant knows this, but do her superiors within the provincial government? Jonathon Naylor is editor of the Reminder newspaper in Flin Flon. jonathon_ naylor@ hotmail. com Winnipeg Free Press Thursday, February 13, 2014 A 15 POLL �� TODAY'S QUESTION Should the federal government adopt income splitting for families? �� Vote online at winnipegfreepress. com �� PREVIOUS QUESTION What did you think of the federal budget? Canada is heading in the right direction 27% TOTAL RESPONSES 4,954 Winnipeg Free Press est 1872 / Winnipeg Tribune est 1890 VOL 142 NO 94 2014 Winnipeg Free Press, a division of FP Canadian Newspapers Limited Partnership. Published seven days a week at 1355 Mountain Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba R2X 3B6, PH: 204- 697- 7000 BOB COX / Publisher PAUL SAMYN / Editor WFP JULIE CARL / Deputy editor SCAN TO VOTE ON TODAY'S QUESTION JONATHON NAYLOR Bus- ride health care hard to take O BSERVERS were not expecting anything more than a middle- of- the- road federal budget for 2014, but even so, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty managed to disappoint. Why then did the government choose to release a hohum budget when the country is focused on the Olympic Games? So we wouldn't notice how recycled and contrived it is? Maybe, but it could also be because if one digs a little beyond the official budget story, things begin to look a little bleaker than we're led to believe. In spite of the government's claims that the Canadian economy is performing well, GDP growth is slow and strained as we've not managed to pull ourselves out of the aftermath of the 2007 recession. Two other indicators continue to cause concern. Household debt is now estimated at a staggering 163 per cent of household income, one of the worse ratios in the OECD, and unemployment is still higher than it was before the recession. Jobs ( or the lack of them) continue to be the story in Canada. Pre- recession, the national unemployment rate was six per cent ( 4.3 per cent in Manitoba). As of January 2013, the national rate was seven per cent, and Manitoba's was 5.6 per cent. Nationally, the labour market continues its uneven performance, with almost 46,000 job losses in December 2013. Only two- thirds of those losses were added back in January. Of further concern, December's losses were largely in full- time work and January's gains included 28,000 people who were self- employed. Even the reduction in the unemployment rate from 2009 until now offers cold comfort; 80 per cent of that reduction occurred because prospects were so poor that Canadians quit looking for work. We also know GDP growth is paltry, we have a large current account deficit and Canadian businesses are sitting on $ 572 billion rather than investing it, according to a CCPA study. Why is the government balancing its books when by all indications, it should be stimulating the economy through smart spending? How does this approach affect Manitobans? Although Manitoba's unemployment rate is lower than Canada's, we face particular problems this budget does not deal with. Unemployment rates do not include an estimated 400,000 discouraged workers, a number that would be higher if it included First Nations residents. More than 15 per cent of Manitoba's population is aboriginal. It is growing more quickly and is younger than the non- aboriginal population. The non- M�tis aboriginal population between 15 and 24 years has an unemployment rate that is four times higher than non- aboriginal Manitobans, making it likely they will be under- or unemployed throughout their lives. They need targeted education and training to overcome obstacles keeping them from participating meaningfully in the labour market. Despite united protest from the premiers, the budget delivered on a promise to bring in the Canada Jobs Grant as of April 1. Money will be removed from the existing Labour Market Agreement, which the province uses to fund communitybased programs, such as BUILD, that help multibarriered workers with little work experience. We may breathe a sigh of relief that transfer payments to provinces have not been cut, but the freeze is in nominal terms only. Manitoba's growing population means there will be less spending per capita. The freeze translates into a further budgetary squeeze for the provincial government and puts vital public services at risk. One of the few bright spots for Manitoba in this budget is the commitment to increase funding for First Nations education. Spending caps are set to increase from two per cent to 4.5 per cent. Although this increase has been far too long in coming, Manitoba First Nations students will begin to play on a more level field with other students. Youth unemployment is another worry. Despite a promise to address the 14 per cent unemployment rate facing those aged 15 to 24, this budget does little. Of greater concern is the scarcity of good jobs for youth; many end up working part time in the precarious labour market. Nationally, an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 young people are working for no pay, simply trying to get a foot in the door. The 2014 budget promises only to fund 3,000 internships, barely scratching the service. The understated and earlier- than- expected balanced budget sets the tone for next year's election budget. And maybe that's why this non- event budget was played so casually. Because given our sluggish economy, that move is taken directly from the austerity playbook, forcing lower government spending on crucial social programs such as health care and education ensuring continued woes in our labour market. Lynne Fernandez is the Errol Black chair in labour studies at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Manitoba. " SOME people will say this budget is boring," Finance Minister Jim Flaherty remarked after unveiling the federal budget on Tuesday. A careful look, however, suggests the minister might be understating the future significance of his budget. After running six consecutive deficits totalling $ 156.5 billion, Flaherty has been clear that balancing the budget in 2015- 16 is his top priority. This budget reaffirms that commitment. The big surprise is the projected deficit for 2014- 15 has decreased to $ 2.9 billion from the $ 5.5 billion reported in November's fiscal update. The improved bottom line includes a $ 3- billion contingency reserve, which means the budget could effectively be balanced a year earlier than planned. For 2015- 16, the government is now projecting a $ 6.4- billion surplus - up from $ 3.7 billion - which also incorporates a $ 3- billion cushion. If the government's plan comes to fruition, it could have a sizeable surplus in 2015- 16. The question then becomes, what will the Conservatives do with it? But first remember there are reasons to be cautious about the government's projections, particularly as they pertain to revenue expectations, which are expected to grow strongly over the next two years. Consider that the budget projects average annual revenue growth of 5.4 per cent for 2014- 15 and 2015- 16 - including a 6.2 per cent increase in 2015- 16. These projections seem ambitious even after accounting for increased tobacco taxes, taxloophole closures and potential asset sales. For perspective, last year's budget estimated total revenues would grow by 3.8 per cent in the current year, but this budget lowered this projection to 2.9 per cent. With reliance on strong revenue projections, a blip could result in a larger deficit or chip away at future surpluses. On the spending side, the Conservatives have exercised spending restraint in recent years, but there are also potential risks here. Last year's budget estimated program spending will grow in the current year by 0.8 per cent. But a series of unforeseen events such as the Alberta floods and Quebec rail tragedy partly led to program spending more than doubling to 1.9 per cent. Although Flaherty limited new spending initiatives in the budget, he did set aside $ 500 million over the next two years for more corporate subsidies to the auto sector and a smattering of other items such as new boutique tax breaks. If Flaherty manages to deliver a balanced budget in spite of revenue and spending risks, the story from budget 2014 will ultimately be the government's reticence about how it will use future surpluses. Besides a couple of references to " further tax relief for small businesses" and a commitment to " examining ways to provide further tax relief for Canadians," the government was largely silent about its top post- deficit priorities. The Conservative party's 2011 election platform made a handful of tax- related commitments conditional on eliminating the deficit. Most notable is the plan to bring in income splitting for families with children. They also pledged to introduce new or augment existing tax credits for children's fitness and other activities. Expectations have been that the government will use a portion of future surpluses to enact these measures in next year's pre- election budget, assuming it remains on track to eliminate the deficit. But Flaherty recently seemed to back away from the income- splitting commitment and instead encouraged " a fulsome debate about that issue" which - when combined with the potential for a significant surplus in 2015- 16 and beyond - opens the door to a discussion about how best to use future surpluses. To set the foundation for strong future economic growth, and to attract skilled workers, entrepreneurs, and investment, Flaherty should consider an ambitious personal tax reform package. While previous tax reforms enacted by both the Liberals and the Conservatives have improved the business tax regime, Canada remains decidedly uncompetitive on personal income tax rates and the income levels at which they apply. Bold personal tax reform would broaden the tax base by eliminating ineffective tax credits, deductions and other special privileges. In exchange for closing special loopholes, the government could reduce marginal tax rates for the broader population. Here's the real upside: Fundamental tax reform would not only improve Canada's tax competitiveness, it would also encourage productive activity such as increased work effort, saving, investment and entrepreneurship, while reducing the complexity of the system and the unproductive costs Canadians spend on tax compliance. The federal government could use part of future surpluses to this end. Despite risks in Flaherty's plan, his budget signals a return to balanced budgets may soon be upon us. This presents an opportunity for a rigorous debate on how best to use future surpluses. Directing a portion to personal income tax reform would be a positive plan for the country. Sean Speer is associate director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute. Charles Lammam, resident scholar in economic policy, and Milagros Palacios is a senior research economist at the institute. O N Feb. 7, the Winnipeg Free Press published an article by the chief statistician of Manitoba entitled Statistics Canada underestimated Manitoba's population. I would like to correct this claim and reiterate that the population estimate for Manitoba is unbiased, free of error and is based on a well- established and statistically sound methodology. This approach was agreed upon by all provinces and territories and was consistently applied. Every five years, population estimates for the provinces and territories are revised using information from two sources: the most recent census and census coverage studies. The 2011 Census of Population was very successful in Manitoba, with a response rate of 97.4 per cent - the third- highest among the provinces and territories. The coverage studies confirmed the high quality of the census in Manitoba. The province had the third- lowest rate of net under- coverage at 1.8 per cent, a substantial improvement in net undercoverage in Manitoba from the 2006 census. The process to produce population estimates is based on both sound and accepted statistical methods that have been used and refined over a number of census cycles. The processes, methods and findings are carefully assessed and validated through a comprehensive review involving representatives from each province and territory. During this process, every concern brought forward by the chief statistician of Manitoba was carefully assessed and a comprehensive review was conducted. Statistics Canada reviewed all survey steps for both the census and the census coverage studies and found no evidence of any error in its processes and findings and confirmed the new population estimate for Manitoba. Contrary to what was stated by the chief statistician of Manitoba regarding evidence of a biased sample for the census coverage study, no evidence of error in terms of a biased sample was found. Statistics Canada thoroughly reviewed and assessed the properties of the survey frame, as well as the sampling and weighting procedures to produce the new estimates for Manitoba and the other provinces and territories. The results of this evaluation were presented to all provincial- territorial representatives prior to the publishing of the new population estimates in September 2013. The claim that Statistics Canada deleted population from Manitoba's count is a false statement. The purpose of census coverage studies is to make appropriate adjustments to the census count for those who were missed or counted more than once in the census. Through this process, the population estimate of every province and territory is adjusted upward or downward according to the findings of the coverage studies. This process is used in every census cycle. The chief statistician of Manitoba points to increases in the number of individuals filing income tax returns in Manitoba as an indicator of population growth. Tax files on their own cannot produce accurate measures of population growth. They represent an incomplete picture of the total population, as groups such as children, aboriginal people, the self- employed and recent immigrants are not fully represented in tax records. A growth of the tax- filing population must be cautiously interpreted as increases in tax filing can be highly sensitive to changing economic conditions and tax policies. Since Statistics Canada has received no new evidence that would warrant any further review of the Manitoba population estimate, no adjustment can be made that is scientifically defensible. It is important that the population- estimates program for Canada, the provinces and territories be based on a common, transparent and robust statistical methodology and be free of arbitrary adjustments. Wayne R. Smith is the chief statistician of Canada. By Wayne R. Smith Claim StatsCan deleted population from Manitoba's count is false By Lynne Fernandez Budget looks bleaker the deeper you dig Door opens to fundamental tax reform By Sean Speer Meh, could have been better, worse 13% I am frightened for the future 52% Who cares, the Olympics are on 8% A_ 15_ Feb- 13- 14_ FP_ 01. indd A15 2/ 12/ 14 7: 04: 22 PM ;