Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - January 28, 2015, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A6 A 6 WINNIPEG FREE PRESS, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2015 TOP NEWS winnipegfreepress. com T HOMPSON MLA Steve Ashton appears to have an edge in several delegate- rich constituencies, making him a likely first- ballot survivor at the NDP leadership contest March 8. The Free Press has obtained an unofficial list of convention- delegate strength for the 57 provincial electoral districts. It is still unknown how many delegates will be assigned to organized labour. The NDP is expected to provide official figures on Monday. But based on interviews with NDP insiders - and after examining the number of delegates assigned to key districts - it appears Ashton could top the initial round of voting at the convention, setting up a second- ballot showdown between him and either Premier Greg Selinger or Seine River MLA Theresa Oswald. " Steve is going to come in first ( in the first ballot)," said an NDP strategist who supports one of the other candidates. To win the leadership, a candidate only needs to capture a simple majority ( 50 per cent plus one) of the delegates. At this point, none of the candidates appears to have enough support to win the race in the first round. About 1,240 delegates will be selected from the province's 57 electoral districts, based on membership sales. Another 98 spots will be assigned to the Manitoba Young New Democrats. There will also be as many as 220 automatic delegates, which include the party's provincial council and Manitoba NDP MLAs and MPs. Several hundred union delegates are expected to push the total voting group to about 2,000 or more. Ashton is seen as an early front- runner because of his strength in several delegate- rich constituencies, including: The Pas ( 147 delegates), Elmwood ( 61), Thompson ( 56), St. Norbert ( 43), Fort Whyte ( 24) and possibly Tyndall Park ( 28). He is also said to be in a close fight with Oswald for the close to 100 youth delegates. Constituencies are allotted one delegate for each 10 memberships sold. A looming provincial byelection in The Pas has sent sales skyrocketing there, and Ashton has considerable support in the North. It's anticipated Elmwood MLA Jim Maloway can deliver the five dozen delegates from his constituency to Ashton. Similarly in St. Norbert, it's believed MLA Dave Gaudreau, a harsh critic of Oswald and her fellow cabinet rebels, can do the same. It is said membership totals have quadrupled in St. Norbert since last fall. While Ashton likely has considerable delegate support, his challenge will be to ensure those delegates show up to vote. Last weekend, he was aided by an NDP provincial council decision that allowed for mail- in ballots or electronic voting in far- flung constituencies. Selinger is said to have strong support in Maples ( 114 delegates), Burrows ( 27) and possibly Point Douglas ( 36). Oswald has fairly widespread support, but doesn't appear to be the clear- cut leader in any of the largest constituencies. But her campaign team has sold a lot of memberships in Wolseley ( 48 delegates), and in Gary Doer's old constituency of Concordia ( 47). She is also expected to do well in Flin Flon ( 22) and Swan River ( 22) and could surprise in Fort Garry- Riverview ( 25), a seat held by Selinger supporter James Allum. Winnipeg political scientist Paul Thomas said the NDP leadership race is too close to call. " I'm finding it very difficult to get any kind of read on it," he said this week. Just because an MLA supports a particular candidate doesn't mean he or she can deliver that constituency's delegates, he said. " I think one of the things Ashton has going in his favour is that people tend to underestimate him," Thomas said. Union support is still a wild card. Apart from Canadian Union of Public Employees national president Paul Moist's impassioned endorsement of Selinger, labour has been silent. The United Food and Commercial Workers union Local 832 could have as many as 160 delegates, based on a membership of about 16,000. A UFCW spokesman said the local has yet to announce whom it will support. larry. kusch@ freepress. mb. ca W HO will win the NDP leadership vote in March? For those following Manitoba politics, that is the burning question that seems to be on everyone's lips. Unfortunately, it's not easy to answer. The New Democrats have concocted a highly complex and mathematically maddening process that defies quick analysis or prognostication. Any observer trying to make sense out of the leadership race has to consider total memberships sold and then calculate the number of delegates generated, and then further divide and analyze those numbers on a riding- by- riding basis. And even then, the race is still too muddy to see a clear winner in this three- way battle. All that said, we're starting to get some information on the leadership race that provides some insight into how things have gone to date and how things might unfold in March. For example, party insiders believe there will be approximately 1,800 delegates in total at the March convention. That's fewer than there were in 2009, but still a pretty large number for the three candidates to chase. This estimate includes approximately 1,250 delegates generated by riding- selection meetings, about 300 union delegates and another 200 automatic spots for party officials, MLAs and MPs. When you break down the delegates on a riding- by- riding basis - something the Free Press is doing thanks to acquisition of an unofficial tally - you can see clearly a handful of delegate- rich ridings will become major battlegrounds. These include The Pas and Thompson in the north, and the Maples, Rossmere, Wolseley, St. Norbert, Point Douglas and Elmwood in Winnipeg. Although the principal challenge for each candidate is the same - 50 per cent plus one - the strategy in the three campaigns is very different. Party sources believe Steve Ashton, the MLA for Thompson, will use a strategy similar to the one employed in his failed 2009 leadership bid: Sell tons of memberships in a few ridings, drive up delegate totals, and then win those votes. Ashton did well using this strategy in 2009 - winning most of the high- yield ridings - but ultimately couldn't garner enough delegates to seriously challenge the eventual winner, Premier Greg Selinger. But in a three- way race, this strategy has made Ashton the odds- on favourite of NDP handicappers to lead on the first ballot. That sets up a battle between Selinger and former cabinet minister Theresa Oswald to come second on the first ballot. In that equation, the winner would get to challenge Ashton for the leadership crown; the loser would be dropped off the ballot and retreat in defeat. And that's where this race gets really, really interesting. Were Selinger to survive the first- ballot results, he would need nearly all of Oswald's delegates to stop Ashton. Similarly, if Oswald were to live to see a second ballot, she would somehow have to convince all of Selinger's folks to help her deny Ashton the victory. And those scenarios seem less and less likely as this campaign wears on. It's important to remember denying Ashton the leadership in 2009 was the force that made allies out of longtime Selinger supporters and hard- core loyalists of former premier Gary Doer. Those two camps had little in common save for a profound dislike of each other and a mutual desire to stop Ashton from winning the leadership. This time around, it seems more likely Ashton may end up being the lesser of two evils for both the Selinger and Oswald camps. Would Selinger's supporters switch in large numbers to support Oswald, who was one of the infamous " Gang of Five" cabinet ministers who led the mutiny against the premier? On the other side of the equation, would Oswald supporters return to support Selinger after their candidate put her political career on the line by openly challenging his leadership? It is so very difficult to see any of that happening. If this were a simple opinion poll, it is unlikely Ashton - a wildly ambitious man who has done very little to hide his lust for the leadership - would ever come out on top. But within the confines of this race, and its confounding rules, Ashton is by far and away the best prepared of all three candidates. And thus, he is clearly the early favourite in this race. The " anyone- but- Ashton" forces within the party had an easy job in 2009. It was a two- horse race, and despite profound trust issues, stopping Ashton from winning brought together two pretty disparate groups within the NDP. Now, it seems the hostility that exists between the Oswald and Selinger camps may be too powerful and pervasive to overcome. And that's pretty much exactly what Ashton is banking on. dan. lett@ freepress. mb. ca Unofficial list of delegates to the NDP leadership convention: Agassiz 5 Arthur- Virden 6 Assiniboia 9 Brandon East 14 Brandon West 9 Burrows 27 Charleswood 6 Concordia 47 Dauphin 17 Dawson Trail 6 Elmwood 61 Emerson 5 Flin Flon 22 Ft. Garry- Riverview 25 Ft. Richmond 19 Ft. Rouge 23 Ft. Whyte 24 Gimli 14 Interlake 14 Keewatinonok 5 Kildonan 21 Kirkfield Park 10 La Verendrye 5 Lac du Bonnet: 6 Lakeside 5 Logan 28 Maples 114 Midland 14 Minto 20 Morden- Winkler 5 Morris 6 Point Douglas 36 Portage 5 Radisson 17 Riding Mountain 5 Riel 18 River East 11 River Heights 16 Rossmere 30 Seine River 15 Selkirk 10 Southdale 16 Spruce Woods 5 St. Boniface 23 St. James 12 St. Johns 19 St. Norbert 43 St. Paul 10 St. Vital 15 Steinbach 5 Swan River 22 The Pas 147 Thompson 56 Transcona 23 Tuxedo 13 Tyndall Park 28 Wolseley 48 Manitoba Young New Democrats 98 Ashton the one to beat Delegates could put Thompson MLA ahead By Larry Kusch SCAN PAGE TO HEAR LETT ON DELEGATE NUMBERS DAN LETT Anyone- but- Ashton camp has its work cut out for it WATERFIGHT V I DE O AT - 40 The whole story... AND MORE Use Blippar. There's more to the story above embedded in this page. Greg Selinger and Theresa Oswald could be in a battle for second on the first ballot. WAYNE GLOWACKI / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Steve Ashton is likely to top the first ballot at the NDP leadership convention, party insiders say. FP EXCLUSIVE A_ 06_ Jan- 28- 15_ FP_ 01. indd A6 1/ 27/ 15 10: 54: 00 PM ;