Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - February 02, 2015, Winnipeg, Manitoba
C M Y K PAGE B6
W ASHINGTON - There's a good
reason the U. S. economy is impressing
the world right now,
despite a slowdown in the final three
months of 2014: In a word, steadiness.
Companies have been hiring at
healthy rates for the past year. Layoffs
hover near historic lows. Auto sales
are strong. Gas prices have sunk. Congressional
budget fights have faded.
Americans are increasingly confident.
All that fed a surge of consumer
spending last quarter, offsetting
weaker business spending caused in
part by a pullback by oil drillers and a
frail global economy.
The U. S. economy as a whole expanded
at a 2.6 per cent annual rate,
the government said Friday, down
from a sizzling five per cent gain the
previous quarter. Yet consumers signalled
their optimism by spending at
the fastest rate in nearly nine years.
" This hasn't changed my picture on
the strength and resilience of the U. S.
economy," said Scott Anderson, chief
economist at the Bank of the West.
" Almost all the drivers of consumer
spending are pointing in the right
direction."
Nearly six years into the recovery
from the Great Recession, the economy
has finally gone from straining
just to grow to posting consistently
solid gains. The gains have come even
though many households continue to
struggle without much of a financial
cushion. Nearly half say they spend
all their income, go into debt or use
savings to meet their expenses, a new
analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts
has found.
In addition, a surging dollar is denting
the earnings of U. S. companies
that operate overseas. And energy
firms have been hurt by plummeting
oil prices, and as a result companies
in the Standard & Poor's 500 index are
expected to report weak profit growth.
But collectively, consumers and
investors are showing renewed faith in
the economy.
On Friday, the University of Michigan
said its sentiment index found
U. S. consumers are more confident
than they've been since 2004. Also
Friday, the government said wages and
benefits are ticking up, a sign steady
job gains may be compelling employers
to pay a bit more.
Most indicators suggest the economy
has surpassed a psychological threshold
that has made businesses more
comfortable with hiring and infused
consumers with more enthusiasm.
" Psychology has been a big contributor
to the improved level of performance
in the United States," said Carl
Tannenbaum, chief economist at the
bank Northern Trust.
At a time when Europe, Asia and
South America face deep anxieties,
the U. S. economy's greatest strength
might be its remarkable sturdiness.
The consensus expectation is the
U. S. economy will expand a solid
three per cent this year, well above
the recovery's 2.2 per cent annual
average. This has made U. S. stocks
and Treasurys comparably attractive
- havens from the risks from Europe's
prolonged slump, collapsing oil
prices, China's slowdown and Japan's
struggles to stave off recession.
Yet the U. S. economy still has additional
room to continue expanding. In
current dollars, the median household
income of $ 54,417 remains about
$ 1,800 below its late- 2007 levels,
reported Sentier Research. More than
five million households owe more on
their mortgages than their homes are
worth, according to the real estate
data firm CoreLogic.
Because the U. S. economy is rebuilding
its core without relying heavily
on mortgages, credit cards and other
debt, it has avoided the sharp swings
and shocks that can tip an economy
into recession.
" You're getting solid, consistent
growth," said John Canally, chief
economic strategist at LPL Financial.
" If you have a slow recovery, you don't
build up the excesses that ultimately
cause a recession."
The gourmet hamburger chain
BurgerFi plans to nearly double in size
from its more than 60 restaurants this
year. More consumers are upgrading
from fast food, and the chain can
choose from towns and cities " where
the economic train has been rolling
along at a pretty rapid pace," said
Corey Winograd, CEO of the Floridabased
chain.
If all goes as planned, BurgerFi will
account for 2,000 new jobs this year.
Investors are still trying to adjust
for this new- found steadiness. The
rush of foreign money into U. S. Treasurys
has cut the yield on 10- year notes
to about 1.67 per cent from 2.9 per
cent a year ago. A result is it's now
cheaper for companies and homebuyers
to borrow in ways that nurture
growth.
During 2014, employers added an
average of 246,000 jobs a month. That
figure has remained above 200,000
for the past 11 months and has helped
whittle the unemployment rate to 5.6
per cent from 6.7 per cent 12 months
earlier. Given that applications for
unemployment benefits have stayed
consistently below a weekly average of
300,000, most economists think hiring
should grow at a pace similar to the
2014 levels.
Wages have yet to grow significantly,
but all those new jobs mean the
U. S. economy entered 2015 with an
extra $ 126 billion in combined annual
paycheques. That money has trickled
into restaurant dinners, new cars and
other goods and services.
- The Associated Press
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Stability makes U. S. consumers spend
Open wallets at fastest rate
in close to nine years
By Josh Boak
ELISE AMENDOLA / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS FILES
Consistent job gains have lifted the U. S. unemployment rate to 5.6 per cent.
B_ 06_ Feb- 02- 15_ FP_ 01. indd B6 2/ 1/ 15 7: 47: 04 PM
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