Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - January 2, 2020, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A8 A 8 THURSDAY, JANUARY 2, 2020 ● WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COMNEWS I CANADA RBC Convention Centre January 10–12 winnipegrenovationshow.com Home and Garden Events @WPGHomeShows #WRS20 Produced by Your Project. Our Experts. Backyard Wars Four local landscapers will be using their design prowess to battle it out for a $1,000 cash prize or free both space at the 2021 Winnipeg Renovation Show! Help crown the best backyard space at the first annual Backyard Wars. Vote for your favourite landscape design and be entered for your chance to win $250! The HGTV Canada Lifestyle Stage Get your stalled projects and stunted imaginations moving at The HGTV Canada Lifestyle Stage presented by Kat Reno and the Winnipeg Free Press. Listen to renovation and design experts, who will be taking the stage to offer easy advice and home inspiration. BUY TICKETS ONLINE 2-FOR-1 PROMO CODE: FREEPRESSCourtesy of: SPONSORS: .com Don’t miss HGTV Canada Celebrity Contractor Bryan Baeumler on Friday, Jan. 10 and Saturday, Jan. 11! PRESENTED BY: O TTAWA — Accidents happen.That’s something Bob Rae ad-vises all federal political parties to keep in mind as they enter a new era of minority government. The former interim Liberal leader knows a thing or two about minority governments. As a New Democrat MP, he moved the motion that brought down Joe Clark’s fleeting Conservative gov- ernment in 1979. As NDP leader in Ontario, he struck the 1985 deal that ended the Progres- sive Conservatives’ 42-year reign in that province and installed David Peter- son’s Liberal minority government. And, back in the federal arena as a Liberal MP during Stephen Harper’s second Conservative minority gov- ernment from 2008 to 2011, he was involved in the Liberals’ unsuccessful attempt to form a coalition government with the NDP. So, Rae speaks from experience when he expresses skepticism about the con- ventional wisdom that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won a strong, stable minority in the Oct. 21 election — 13 seats shy of a majority — and should have little dif- ficulty surviving, with the help of one or more opposition parties, for at least a couple of years. “The one thing that can and has gone wrong (in past minority governments) is what I would call the unintended consequences of rhetoric or people as- suming what other people know or as- suming... ‘Well, if we do this, they will inevitably do that,’ “ he says in an inter- view. “And you sort of say none of that is in- evitable and you’ve got to be aware that things can go wrong.” With the Conservatives about to em- bark on a leadership race after Andrew Scheer’s abrupt resignation, Rae is rea- sonably confident that the Liberal min- ority is in no danger of being brought down in the short term, at least not until the official Opposition chooses a new leader. But even a leaderless Opposition is no guarantee of survival — as Clark dis- covered when the Liberals joined the NDP to defeat his government’s maiden budget despite the fact that Pierre Tru- deau, the current prime minister’s late father, had stepped down as Grit lead- er. The Conservatives miscalculated the number of opposition MPs who’d show up, lost the confidence vote and plunged the country into an election they thought they could win because the Liberals were in disarray. As it turned out, Pierre Trudeau was persuaded to rescind his resignation and led the Liberals to victory in early 1980. The lessons from that episode are “learn arithmetic” and take nothing for granted, says Rae. During the few days that Parliament has sat since the election, conventional wisdom about the stability of Justin Trudeau’s minority seemed justified. Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Fran- cois Blanchet cut through the usual posturing and suspense to immediately declare that his 31 MPs would support the throne speech. He was clear that he has little interest in triggering another election any time soon. That freed NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, whose cash-strapped party could ill afford a snap election, to take a harder line. He declared his 23 MPs won’t “blindly support” initiatives that don’t meet New Democrat standards. Still, both the NDP and the Bloc ul- timately supported the supplementary estimates, the process for keeping the money flowing for government pro- grams and operations — the Liberals’ first test of the confidence of the House of Commons. But Rae cautions that one should not assume the Bloc will always be so com- pliant. And he warns that Singh should be careful about laying down conditions for NDP support lest he back himself into a rhetorical corner. “If the Bloc thinks they can win a whole bunch more seats in Quebec, which is all they’re interested in... they might decide to change their mind,” he says. “And sometimes when those things happen they can happen so quickly that other parties might not have time to react or their rhetoric has put them in a position that they can’t really back away without losing face.” For Trudeau, Rae says the key will be to open trusted channels of communi- cation with the opposition parties to an- ticipate what they might do and prevent surprises. It will be equally critical, he says, to ensure open lines with ministers and Liberal backbenchers, to create an “early warning system” that will alert the government to any brewing internal problems before they erupt in public, like the SNC-Lavalin debacle. Anything that erodes public support for the Liberals, he noted, will encour- age opposition parties to bring them down. That goes double if the country slides into a recession, compromising Liberal policy of running up deficits supported by a growing economy, and leaving the government with less room to honour its election commitments, much less the expensive add-ons opposition parties might demand in return for supporting the budget. — The Canadian Press Take nothing for granted in minority government: Rae JOAN BRYDEN SEAN KILPATRICK / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Bob Rae has much experience when it comes to minority governments in Canada. The former Liberal leader says its unlikely the government will be brought down in the short term. A_08_Jan-02-20_FP_01.indd A8 2020-01-01 8:46 PM ;