Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - April 13, 2020, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A7 THINK TANK PERSPECTIVES EDITOR: BRAD OSWALD 204-697-7269 ? BRAD.OSWALD@FREEPRESS.MB.CA ? WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COM A7 MONDAY APRIL 13, 2020 Ideas, Issues, Insights JEFF MCINTOSH / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Shoppers take an escalator in a mostly-empty shopping mall in Calgary. Until the pandemic passes, the best strategy is to remain at home. Taking small social risks is not OK W E'VE all heard the advice from public health officials: stay at home, wash your hands and don't touch your face! We've cancelled sporting events, concerts and other mass gatherings; closed schools, libraries and playgrounds; and asked people to work from home wherever possible. As we enter into this extended period of social distancing (also called physical distancing), many might be wondering whether giving up in-person recreational time with friends and family is worth the potential harms to our social and emotional well-being. Some may be asking: "Can I keep seeing my friends and family, but in a safer way?" Taking a risk-reduction approach to social distancing for COVID-19 won't work. Risk reduction (or harm reduction) refers to public health strategies that minimize the risks and related harms of certain behaviours, without expecting people to stop engaging in those behav- iours. Examples include using condoms during sex or wearing a helmet while bike riding; people still practise these behaviours, but they do them less often or in a safer way. When it comes to COVID-19, those considering a risk-reduction approach to social distancing may be thinking: "Is it OK to take small risks, such as visiting my parents if we're all symptom-free? Or meeting up with my running group if we stay two metres apart? Or seeing my elderly grandmother in a nursing home if I've been physically isolating for 14 days?" The short answer, sadly, is no. First, COVID-19 is primarily transmitted by re- spiratory droplets produced when someone coughs or sneezes, and the virus can live on surfaces for several hours or even days. Even people who are practising social distancing can be exposed to COVID-19 when doing essential activities such as getting groceries or exercising outdoors. This means that even if you are staying at home and practising social distancing, it's still possible to have been exposed to the virus and not even know it. Because people infected with COVID-19 can be contagious before they start showing symptoms, every close contact with someone else - even if they are asymptomatic - risks trans- mitting the virus. So, no, you can't go visit your grandmother even if you have no symptoms and you've been physically isolating for 14 days. Second, social distancing will only "flatten the curve" if everyone who is able to remain physi- cally separated does so. This will keep the number of active cases below the health-care system's capacity and increases the likelihood that those who need care will be able to get it. You may perceive your individual risk to be low, but the reality is that everyone is vulnerable to COVID-19. Social distancing protects not only you, but those in your communities who are at higher risk for severe disease, such as older adults. Third, Canada is now seeing more cases of COVID-19 that were acquired in the community, where the source of infection cannot be linked to a known case or other risk factors, such as interna- tional travel. This is why the public health response has tran- sitioned to broad population-wide approaches such as social distancing, which aims to slow the spread of the virus and prevent our health-care system from being overwhelmed. About one to two per cent of people infected with COVID-19 will die of their infection (versus about 0.1 per cent for seasonal influenza), and it only takes three to four days for the number of cases to double. Given these characteristics, loosening social distancing measures, despite how safe it might seem, can increase the number of people who will require admission to hospital or tragically die from this infection. What would a risk-reduction approach for COVID-19 look like for our more recreational social interactions? The risks of COVID-19 are not going to stop people from being social, any more than the risks of sexually transmitted infections or head injuries stop people from having sex or riding a bike. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the metaphori- cal equivalent of using condoms and wearing a helmet is not to have less frequent social encoun- ters with friends and family. Rather, we must redefine what those social interactions look like. According to public health experts, this could include virtual meet-ups with friends or col- leagues, calling or texting a friend you haven't seen for a while, hosting an online book club or movie night or spending family time with your household members. These types of interactions are important for everyone, but especially those members of our society who live alone, or the one in five Canadi- ans who experience mental health problems. We should still strive to stay socially connected, albeit in a different, more virtual way. Until the virus is brought under control, practis- ing strict social distancing, combined with other public health measures such as widespread testing and vaccine development, will be critical in con- trolling the spread of COVID-19. Catharine Chambers and Daniel Harris are PhD candidates in the division of epidemiology at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto. This article has been edited for length; the full version can be seen at winnipegfreepress.com or theconversation.com/ca. Time to put economy on COVID-19 pause COVID-19 is simultaneously a health and economic crisis. If we do not flatten the curve or a second wave of illness emerges as social distancing eases, disease effects may well extend into the sum- mer and even further into the fall, with a possible repeat cycle starting by December. Public health alerts have dominated the news cycle. However, economists have long understood the critical importance of the social and economic determinants of health. COVID-19 is set to create a recurring domino effect of economic malaise followed by broader health crises that worsen the economy even further. So far, governments have treated the economic effect of COVID-19 as if it were a conventional demand side collapse such as the Great Reces- sion (2007 - 2008) or the Great Depression (1929 - 1938). Governments have committed to dramatic increases in spending on existing programs and created new ways to funnel money to workers and businesses. First, let's look at the existing policies for combating recession. Monetary policy is the first line of defence to combat recession - the Bank of Canada has re- duced interest rates to almost zero and committed to a range of asset purchase programs to support the mortgage market and short-term government debt. However, most economists have lost faith that monetary policy remains effective. Second, the so-called automatic stabilizers, such as Employment Insurance, would normally do their share in combating a recession. With one-mil- lion-plus Canadians applying for EI benefits, about $550 million could be injected into the economy each week. But the EI program was never de- signed to accept a million applications in a week. it is bogging down, so cheques will not flow soon. Third, while increasing the benefits of exist- ing programs such as the child benefit is easy, a problem with much of governments' economic response to COVID-19 is that new initiatives such as launching a mortgage purchase program or the new emergency benefit program require months to create. With public-sector workers also falling sick and increasingly working from home, these new initiatives will roll out slowly and incompletely, suggesting that the massive subsidy for business or support for individuals are unlikely to flow before mid-May. Some jurisdictions and private-sector companies have implemented selected elements of a more radical policy. B.C. has banned evictions and rent increases. Some banks are promoting mortgage payment deferrals for households, which were al- ways available provided the borrower could offer a reason, usually job loss. However, these scattered measures are grossly insufficient. What we need now is a nationally mandated COVID-19 "pause" on mortgage payments, rents, property taxes, car, consumer and business debt, and utilities for six months. When and if the econ- omy stabilizes, rents, utility and other taxes would be repaid using low-interest loans. Government would create loan guarantee programs to support lenders who finance the repayment. Deferred mortgage payments are simply added to the total amount owing. Those who continue to receive income would not use these deferrals, simply because the repayment process is more costly than paying bills on time. This pause is definitely not a program to allow shirkers to avoid their obligations. A national pause on the payments that comprise the bulk of recurring payments for households and business (not wages, of course) has two key benefits: first, it will relieve the immediate pres- sures of economic survival and make the public health directives more palatable and enforceable, especially as we head into May and June. Second, while we need new spending programs, the pause reduces the financial obligation and the pressure on rapid and probably sloppy implementation. It gives breathing time to design things properly. The COVID-19 pause defers a whole range of payments up the economic food chain - from minimum-wage renters to landlords to municipal governments to utilities and to provincial govern- ments. This would rapidly create a tidal wave of debt, underwritten by all orders of government and corporations. Now at some point, the buck must stop. Or must it? This is where modern monetary theory rides to the rescue. Roundly condemned by leading econo- mists, this theory argues that countries that have control over their currency can massively increase the credit limits of business and government. We need to print electronic money or more correctly, the Bank of Canada must purchase government and corporate debt - the asset purchase program - at levels that we have never seen. Right now, government must assure Canadians who face bills they cannot pay, that they will not lose their homes, cars or other possessions. Public order and our collective mental health depend on Canadians believing that government has the capacity to backstop the COVID-19 crisis. It has, if only it would recognize it. Many will think of a COVID-19 pause as eco- nomic madness, and in normal times they would be right. But in mid-January as I was lecturing to my class, 50 per cent who come from mainland China, had you told me I would be writing this during a lockdown that could last until into the summer, I would have deemed you mad. The COVID-19 pause I describe would fill the economic hole while we flatten the infection curve. Gregory Mason is an associate professor of economics at the University of Manitoba. 'Shaming' trend is not helpful THE pandemic disaster the world finds itself in the middle of is bringing out both the best and worst in people. And some behaviours are just annoying. One of the most annoying trends is the emergence of busybodies who are eager to pass judgment on others before they have all the facts. They're the "pandemic police" - self-appointed vigilantes who are calling out people for not strictly adhering to social isola- tion protocols. A mom in Sooke, B.C., was a recent victim of this overzealous reign of terror when she was repeatedly verbally assaulted for taking her two kids, ages two and six, out with her for errands. Janene Walker says she was stopped in a Lowe's parking lot changing her daughter's diaper in her van when a passing man in a truck yelled out at her, "Keep your kids in the house, for Christ's sake!" Then, during a visit to a local grocery store, her daughter was strapped in the shopping cart and her son was close to her side when a man called her a "shitty mom" for taking her kids out with her. That confrontation turned into a shouting match that left her in tears. Now, no question it would have been far better if this mom didn't have her children with her while she bought necessary supplies. But sometimes we find ourselves in difficult circumstances. In her case, she's managing her kids on her own while her husband is deployed with the military and, with no family nearby, she says she has no one to help her with babysitting. Dr. Robert Strang, Nova Scotia's chief medical officer of health, recently spoke up to condemn such public shaming. Community harassment, especially online, is "inappropri- ate," he said. What's more appropriate is cracking down on people who are obviously flouting common sense - and, increasingly, the law in many provinces and states. These are the people who, apparently in denial of their own mortal- ity, are deliberately gathering in large groups to party as if they're somehow immune to this terrifying disease. We've all seen images of people, many of them college students on spring break, sun- ning themselves on Florida beaches, as if the COVID-19 pandemic is a problem only to be found in China, Italy and New York City. Since those images were published, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has banned gatherings of more than 10 people. Check those beaches today and you'll find the crowds have thinned out. And then there are the COVID-19 skep- tics - yes, believe it or not, they're still out there. They think all of this is being over- blown or even a left-wing conspiracy. They also seem to think they can carry on as before without any consequences. To them, the an- swer may be not only public shaming but also the full force of the law. But what about people like Janene Walker, who just find themselves in a bind and don't know what to do? Strang says that rather than harass or shame individuals, people need to of- fer help and support so the person in question feels able to self-isolate and has the support to see them through the period of isolation. Walker agrees, arguing that compassion should extend to any single parent who's struggling to keep their household afloat while maintaining physical distancing and isolation: "All these people just . think that they know better. And they're shaming people publicly when they don't know their situation. We should be helping each other and lifting each other up and showing compassion." I suspect that all of us have at some point in our lives felt the sting of being judged by people who seem to be lurking in the shadows waiting for an opportunity to pounce. I don't want to dive too deeply into the psychology behind that, but I suspect a lot of these people grew up in very judgmental households. Their tendency to gossip and look down their noses at others apparently gives their egos a boost. It's time for those people to show consideration and find out the full story before passing judgment. I'm left to wonder what might have hap- pened if one of those people who were so quick to denounce Walker had stopped and asked her why she was out with her kids. A little understanding and problem-solving might have made the connection she needed to find some babysitting or discover someone who could bring supplies to her. Except for a handful for ignorant scofflaws, the vast majority of us fully understand the urgency of maintaining safe social distance. With each passing day, the grim news reminds us what's at stake. Rather than assuming the worst, when we see someone who's breaking the rules, it's worth asking whether we can help them comply. We're in this together - let's all try to re- member that some people just need a helping hand. Veteran political commentator Doug Firby is president of Troy Media Digital Solutions and publisher of Troy Media. - Troy Media GREGORY MASON CATHARINE CHAMBERS AND DANIEL HARRIS DOUG FIRBY A_07_Apr-13-20_FP_01.indd A7 2020-04-12 5:07 PM ;