Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - May 09, 2020, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A10 A 10 SATURDAY, MAY 9, 2020 ? WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COMNEWS I COVID-19 PANDEMIC SPECTATORLESS RACING BEGINS MONDAY, MAY 25, 7:30 PM On your phone, laptop, computer or MTS channels 179-180 Read "The Insider" e-newsletter for the latest. Sign up free at ASDowns.com 204-885-3330 ASDowns.com Sign up for a wagering account now! Call 204-885-3330 ext. 225 EVERY MON-TUES-WED IS RACING NIGHT IN WINNIPEG! MantarioCabin.ca Unplug. Reconnect with nature. O NE of the most critical eco-nomic questions about the COVID-19 pandemic will be how quickly jobs return once social- distancing restrictions are eased. If past downturns are any indication, service-based employment should bounce back relatively quickly. But it may take years before manufacturing jobs return to pre-crisis levels. Canada lost nearly two million jobs in April, a gloomy report released by Statistics Canada Friday shows. Manitoba wasn't spared. The prov- ince lost 64,200 jobs last month, more than half of which were full time. The private sector was the hardest hit as jobs fell 12.9 per cent; public- sector employment declined 1.9 per cent. The proportion of job losses in Manitoba last month was about the middle of the pack compared with other provinces. The unemployment rate would have been much higher if those wanting to work, but who gave up trying (because they were temporarily laid off or couldn't find work due to the pan- demic) were included in the figures, StatCan said. Only those working or seeking employment are counted as part of the official labour force. In Manitoba, 34,300 people dropped out of the labour force last month - an unprecedented decline for a single month. Nationally, the number of job losses since February has eclipsed the pro- portion of jobs lost during the past three major economic downturns, go- ing back to the recession of 1981-82. As the economy starts to reopen, the question is: how many of those jobs will return and how long will it take for them to come back? Service-based jobs - including those in retail and the hospitality industry - returned to pre-recession levels in an average of four months after the last three recessions, StatCan said. But it took far longer for jobs in goods- producing sectors. It took an average of more than six years for those jobs to return to pre-recession levels in the downturns of 1981-82 and 1990-92. It took even longer, 10 years, after the global recession of 2008-09. It underscores the need for govern- ments to help keep as many businesses afloat as possible. This isn't a tradi- tional economic downturn where broad government stimulus can help some businesses survive as they struggle with falling revenue. In many cases, businesses that have been shuttered during this pandemic have no revenue at all, or so little they can't retain staff. Many are unable to pay fixed costs, such as rent and utili- ties. Even those in the service industry, which have typically rebounded faster, may have more difficulty making a comeback this time. If they can't survive total or partial shutdown, they may not be around to provide the jobs in those sectors. Government support for business has been spotty. Some federal pro- grams have worked. The 75 per cent wage subsidy has been helpful for many businesses. But the delay in roll- ing it out has been problematic. Also, many don't qualify. The federal loan program has helped provide companies with much-needed liquidity. However, many businesses don't qualify for that, either. The federal commercial rent pro- gram, co-funded by the provinces, has been a disaster. The program is administered through landlords, as op- posed to providing commercial renters with direct aid. Many landlords have opted not to participate. Even when they have, many businesses still don't qualify. Manitoba's support to business con- tinues to be underwhelming. The Pal- lister government is offering a $6,000 forgivable loan to businesses that don't qualify for federal support. That may help a small number of companies. But it's not enough to cover one month's rent for many. The problem with not supporting businesses with timely financial aid is it could lead to permanent closure for many. That would substantially delay a rebound in the job market. The Pallister government may be saving money in the short term by not opening its purse strings to adequately support businesses during this rough patch. But the Manitoba economy and the job market will pay a much larger price for that in the long run. tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca Past recessions give clues to job loss TOM BRODBECK OPINION R EGINA - Questions about access to supplies are emerging as health officials and community leaders work to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Saskatchewan's far north. The region has seen a spike in cases in and around the remote Dene village of La Loche, a community of 2,800 about 600 kilometres northwest of Sas- katoon. Leonard Montgrand, the regional representative of M�tis Nation-Sas- katchewan, lives in the community. He said it's getting scary because infra- structure isn't set up to respond to the crisis. "We are losing control," he said. "We need to get that infrastructure set up. We need to get things in place." One of two grocery stores in the vil- lage recently closed after an employee tested positive for COVID-19. The com- pany that owns the store said in a state- ment it will try to reopen as soon as possible. "For us, a day without both grocery stores operating is difficult," said Geor- gina Jolibois, a former member of Par- liament for the region. She said people will have limited access to fruit and vegetables, as the one store that remains open is already busy. Surgical and cloth masks were quickly scooped up and getting clean- ing supplies has always been tough. Some physicians and medical stu- dents in the province have launched a GoFundMe campaign to get cleaning supplies and non-perishable food to La Loche. It had raised more than $10,000 as of Friday afternoon. La Loche Mayor Robert St. Pierre said residents are OK for now. He ex- pects the closed grocery store will be up and running again in a day or two. Council has also requested the prov- ince close down the village's liquor store to prevent people from leaving their homes and gathering, he said. "Inhibitions are not really there when you start drinking. "For the safety of the community, at least for this week or next week, to con- tain this virus, those are the measures that we have to do." Twelve of 13 new cases announced Friday by the province are in and around La Loche. A Facebook group providing community updates said Thursday there are 111 active cases in the village and 14 in the nearby Clear- water River Dene Nation. Of Saskatchewan's 544 total cases, 179 are from the far north. Two elders from La Loche have also died from the illness. Indigenous Services Minister Marc Miller said Friday the La Loche out- break is one of the worst in Canada, "in terms of numbers happening in a vulnerable Indigenous community with a number of First Nations reserves around it. "This is really a combination of fac- tors that make it very alarming." Ashton Lemaigre, who moved back home to La Loche after finishing a uni- versity degree, said people addicted to drugs and alcohol are having a harder time with physical distancing. "There's a lot of people who I know that are doing a lot of drug activities that are still out, even though we have security and we have curfews." Premier Scott Moe said there have been supply shortages to the com- munity but they are "very short term." The Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency said 300 more clean- ing kits were to arrive in La Loche on Friday. La Loche is also exempt from par- ticipating in the first phase of the province's reopening plan, which lift- ed public health restrictions on med- ical services this week. Retail shops and hair salons are to open later this month. - The Canadian Press Supplies a concern in northern Saskatchewan STEPHANIE TAYLOR MICHAEL BELL / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says supply shortages in La Loche are 'very short term' as the northern community battles COVID-19. A_10_May-09-20_FP_01.indd A10 2020-05-08 9:56 PM ;