Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - October 2, 2021, Winnipeg, Manitoba C M Y K PAGE A14 A 14 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2021 ● WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COMNEWS I MANITOBA M ANITOBA’S Progressive Con-servative party is no longer sinking since its biggest anchor (former premier Brian Pallister) was thrown overboard. And while the Tories are still sailing through shoals — with the NDP still strongly in place to win if an election were held now — they have bounced up from previous polling depths, accord- ing to the latest Probe Research omni- bus survey on provincial party support. The survey of 1,000 Manitobans, taken Sept. 7-20 — just after Pallister stepped down Sept. 1 and interim Pre- mier Kelvin Goertzen was appointed by the PCs — shows the gap between the Tories and NDP has narrowed to seven percentage points from the high- water mark of 18 percentage points re- ported in a June survey. “That has happened in a remark- ably short time,” said Probe pollster Scott MacKay. “The sinking has been stopped. Even with uncertainty as to who the next leader will be (the PCs will hold a vote Oct. 30), a lot of people have come back. “It has to be what this was: Brian Pal- lister leaving.” Longtime Tory political strategist Barbara Biggar believes the shifting political fortunes bode well for the chances of the PCs in the next election, slated for 2023. “There’s no question the trending is heading in the right direction, and quickly,” said Biggar, who has been a part of every Tory campaign dating to the days of leader Gary Filmon. “When I see already we are back to a tie in the southeast of Winnipeg, and gained significant ground in others areas of the city, it looks likely to be a very competitive race in 2023.” Biggar said the numbers show Mani- tobans are responding to Goertzen’s ap- proach to being interim premier. “Manitobans like a quieter style of leadership,” she said. “They like a qui- eter style, consultative, and mild con- servatism. It is allowing the rebound to very quickly turn.” Political scientist Chris Adams, rec- tor of St. Paul’s College at the Univer- sity of Manitoba, said the numbers are coming back quickly for the Tories but they are still far behind. “The NDP are up 11 points since the (2019) election and the Conservatives are down 12 points,” said Adams. “If they went to the ballot box now, the PCs would be ousted right now.” MacKay said what’s also interesting is the rise in poll numbers for the Tories is also occurring when the party doesn’t have a permanent leader in place. “I say this without any scientific infor- mation, but Goertzen has such a differ- ent style than Pallister, that it reminds people this is what we could have had,” he said. “But they have a long way to go, but they are going in the right direction.” As for the NDP, while provincially there is now only seven percentage points separating it from the Tories, its strength in Winnipeg remains high. The NDP has a 23 percentage point lead in the capital city, where more than half the province’s seats are located. Adams said these numbers don’t bode well for Tory hopes at this time: “You can’t win a provincial election without a good support in Winnipeg.” MacKay said women are powering the numbers, as they support the NDP over the Tories by a two-to-one margin. Meantime, the PCs have popped up in three areas of Winnipeg, rising seven per cent (to 30 per cent) in the south- west part of the city; up 12 per cent in the southeast (to 38 per cent); and up 11 per cent in the northeast (to 32 per cent). For the Liberal party, nothing much has changed. Across the province, Lib- eral support is at 12 per cent, compared to 14 per cent in June and 11 per cent in March. In Winnipeg, it has been a con- stant 16 per cent since March. “Up until 10 years ago, we used to see the Liberals get more support between elections and then it dwindled before elec- tion day,” said Adams. “We’re not seeing that now. I think it is because people are already thinking whether they like the government or not and who to vote for.” Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont said: “I cannot be governed by polls. We are getting candidates on board. We are fundraising. That’s not going to change... What I see is a very strong an- ti-Pallister and anti-PC vote. People are desperate to get rid of the PCs.” Biggar said the Liberal numbers are a concern outside that party, too. “They are absolutely flat,” she said. “Conservatives always need Liberal numbers to be higher... There’s no doubt the PCs are peeling straight off the NDP numbers. “If I was Wab Kinew, I would be very concerned.” Probe said with 95 per cent certainty the survey results are accurate within plus or minus 3.1 per cent. kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca PC fortunes rise on Pallister-free tide KEVIN ROLLASON Narrow gap to NDP in first poll since former premier stepped down W HEN members of Manitoba’s Progressive Conservative party elect a new leader this month, the question they may want to ask themselves is: of the two candi- dates in the race, which one would the NDP prefer? Whoever that is, party members — who had until Friday to buy a mem- bership to vote in the Oct. 30 contest — should choose the other one if they want a chance at winning the next provincial election. Manitoba’s Tories are struggling badly in the polls, especially in Win- nipeg, where they have fallen well be- hind their NDP rivals, thanks mostly to the damage caused by former premier Brian Pallister. If a provincial election were held today, the Tories would be annihilated. Fortunately for them, the next elec- tion is not scheduled until October 2023. They have two years to rebrand and convince the voting public that all traces of their former leader have been expunged from the party. That will not be easy to do. The Tories’ political opponents, mainly the NDP, will remind Manitobans at every opportunity how badly the Pallister government managed the pandemic, especially during the third wave when 57 critical-care patients had to be airlifted out of the province. The NDP will talk a lot about the Tories’ attempt to eliminate English-language school boards (Bill 64) and how they bungled health-care reform. Of the two candidates vying for leadership, MLA Heather Stefanson will have the most difficulty distancing herself from those political liabilities. She was, after all, the health minister during the third wave. She also sup- ported Bill 64 (one of five bills gov- ernment intends to quash next week when the house resumes sitting) and seconded the motion to introduce it last year. Stefanson brings a lot of baggage to the race the NDP would surely exploit, including her ties to Pallister when she served as deputy premier. NDP Leader Wab Kinew would love nothing better than to stand on a stage with her in a leaders debate and ask where she was during the pandemic when critical- care patients couldn’t be treated in their own province. That’s not to say the Tuxedo MLA couldn’t make the case that those things occurred under Pallister’s watch and that she would pursue a different agenda. It may take some convincing, but Stefanson could argue that under her leadership, the Tories would take a more collabora- tive and consultative approach to governing. Whether Manitobans would buy that is unclear, although she would have two years to prove herself. Former Conservative MP Shelly Glover doesn’t bring any of that bag- gage to the table. She has a clean slate, at least when it comes to Pallister. She wasn’t a member of his government and doesn’t have to make excuses for his actions. Glover openly criticized Pallister’s handling of the pandemic before she entered the leadership contest. She would be in a strong posi- tion to take on Kinew without having to answer for the Pallister government record. Glover is also Métis and flu- ently bilingual. She has other baggage, though. The NDP would remind Manitobans that the former Winnipeg Police Service officer served as a member of Parlia- ment under former prime minister Stephen Harper, whose brand of Conservative politics doesn’t sell well in many parts of Manitoba, especially in Winnipeg. Glover also got off on the wrong foot last month when she declared her op- position to vaccine mandates and later to “economic lockdowns.” Her muddled stance on government’s pandemic re- sponse appears directed at the anti-vax segment of the party; a strategic move to pick up support from those opposed to government’s proof-of-vaccination policies. Stefanson has played a similar game, although to a lesser extent. She says she’s opposed to “mandatory vaccines” but supports government’s vaccine policies. Meanwhile, Stefanson has the benefit of caucus support and could transi- tion to power more seamlessly than Glover (who doesn’t have the backing of a single Tory MLA). However, that could work to Glover’s advantage by signalling a clean start to a new PC government. Tory members have a big decision to make. If they’re looking for advice on who their next leader should be, they should ask some of their NDP friends who they prefer. tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca Tories should figure out who NDP would like to face TOM BRODBECK OPINION MANITOBA Progressive Conserva- tive party leadership candidate Hea- ther Stefanson has held the roles of deputy premier, and health, justice and families minister, and has been MLA for Tuxedo for more than two decades. However, when it comes to name recognition, opponent Shelly Glover is slightly more well-known to Mani- tobans. A Probe Research poll found while both are known by three-quarters of Manitobans, 36 per cent of respondents said they are very familiar with Glover (a former MP), compared to 29 per cent for Stefanson. A further 39 per cent said they are somewhat familiar with Glover, compared to Stefanson at 43 per cent. Together, it gives Glover a small edge over Stefanson: 75 per cent to 72 per cent. The poll of 1,000 Manitobans was taken Sept. 7-20 by Probe Research, a time when Stefanson and Glover had declared they would run for the va- cant party leadership role, along with MLA Shannon Martin. Martin later pulled out the day before the official deadline. As well, while the polling was on- going, former PC party chief financial officer Ken Lee said he was going to run but his candidacy was later re- jected by the party. When asked who would be the party best leader and premier, Stefanson gets the nod with about one-half of respondents making her their first or second choice in a three-person con- test; Glover was the pick of about four in 10. Interestingly, it may not matter which candidate the Tories name leader in an Oct. 30 voter: half of those polled say they would at least think about marking the ballot for a Progressive Conserva- tive candidate, no matter if the leader is Stefanson or Glover. In what could be seen as potential bad news for Stefanson, the poll did find seven in 10 — including more than half of voters who marked a ballot for the Tories in the 2019 election — believe the party would be better off with a new leader who wasn’t a sitting member in former premier Brian Pallister’s cab- inet. Curtis Brown of Probe Research said half of those polled considering the Tories in the next election no mat- ter who the leader is means “from the party’s point of view, it was probably beneficial for the party to change lead- ers.” “The question is whether to have someone from outside or someone in- side be leader,” said Brown. When asked whether they believe some of Pallister’s cabinet ministers and MLAs “were effective at working behind the scenes to change govern- ment policies,” only 10 per cent strongly agreed, while another 42 per cent some- what agreed. Political scientist Chris Adams, rec- tor of St. Paul’s College at the Univer- sity of Manitoba, said he found it inter- esting while half would consider voting for the Tories with a new leader, when it comes to past PC voters, it is even higher no matter who the party picks as leader. “Eight out of 10 (PC) voters would be willing to vote for the party, regardless of the leader,” said Adams. “Conservatives and Progressive Conservative supporters are loyal to their party. They vote that way provin- cially and federally, as opposed to the Liberals and NDP supporters who can switch.” Adams said Glover has strong name recognition because she was the senior Tory cabinet minister for Manitoba for a few years during the Harper govern- ment. “She was prominent. She did the ribbon-cutting and she was minister of heritage.” With a month to go, Adams said it could get ugly, because the candidates are fighting to get different sections of the party to support them. “It will be like the leadership races of (Gary) Filmon and (Brian) Ransom and Sterling Lyon and (Sid) Spivak. I suspect Glover will attract more of the anti-establishment side... It doesn’t look like it will be a peaceful race.” Brown cautioned while the poll is a survey of Manitobans, the actual vote for Tory leader will only be cast by members of the Progressive Conserva- tive party. “It’s the members, so it is always hard to tell who is ahead or behind,” he said. “But it does show both of them have a reasonable amount of support with Manitobans — it is quite neck-and- neck.” Probe Research said the poll has a 95 per cent level of accuracy, plus or minus 3.1 per cent. kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca Glover holds edge in name recognition, poll shows KEVIN ROLLASON THE QUESTION “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support? If you have not decided, is there a candidate you think you might want to support or are currently leaning toward?” Brian Pallister leaving has boosted Progressive Conservative poll numbers while Heather Stefanson and Shelly Glover vie for party leadership, but the NDP under Wab Kinew has a large lead. POLL PROBE RESEARCH A_14_Oct-02-21_FP_01.indd A14 2021-10-01 9:37 PM ;