Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - March 3, 2022, Winnipeg, Manitoba <§>PAGE A5 THURSDAY,MARCH3,2022 • WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COMNEWS I WAR IN UKRAINE A5Envoy Rae pushes back against calls for no-fly zoneUN votes to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine MIKEBLANCHFIELD CANADA’S ambassador to the United Nations says a no-fly zone to protect Ukrainians from Russian aerial bombardment would need a buy-in from the Russians themselves to have any meaningful effect. Bob Rae said a no-fly zone “is obviously a wonderful thing if it happens, but it requires a degree of consensus that simply doesn’t exist in this situation.” Rae was speaking in an interview from New York earlier this week as calls intensified for NATO to close the skies above Ukraine to Russian war planes and helicopters. On Wednesday, the Russian aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities continued, killing scores of civilians and forcing an estimated 870,000 people to flood into other European countries as refugees. The carnage continued one day after Russian President Volo-dymyr Zelenskyy issued the latest of many pleas for a no-fly zone, this time in a television interview with NBC from what looked like a secure bunker somewhere in Kyiv. “As far as a no-fly zone is concerned it would have helped a lot. This is not about dragging NATO countries into war. The truth is everyone has long since been dragged into war and definitely not by Ukraine, but by Russia — a large-scale war is going on,” Zelenskyy said in subtitled Ukrainian, clad in a green T-shirt and showing a few days of beard growth. Zelenskyy said Ukrainians were ready to fight, but they could not fight alone. He said “that is why a no-fly zone to close the sky” is necessary. The United States, Britain and Canada have ruled out a no-fly zone as too provocative because it would essentially lead to an all-out air war between NATO forces and Russia. Defence Minister Anita Anand said Tuesday that “putting in place a no-fly zone would be a severe escalation on the part of NATO and it is not on the table at the current time.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has also raised the stakes by saying his mil VADIM GHIRDA/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS A woman cries outside houses damaged by a Russian airstrike, according to locals, in Gorenka, outside the capital Kyiv, Wednesday. itary’s nuclear arsenal is now on alert. That has not stopped some high-profile Canadians from taking to the airwaves and social media to push for a no-fly zone, including the former Canadian defence chief, retired general Rick Hillier, and former Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander, who also served as a senior UN representative in Afghanistan. No-fly zones have been enforced in the past with great success, said Rae, pointing to the landmark effort in 1991 in the skies over northern Iraq to protect Kurds from a genocidal regime in Baghdad ruled by the dictator Saddam Hussein. The United States, Britain and France patrolled the skies over northern Iraq, which kept Hussein’s war planes on the ground and left Kurdish Peshmerga fighters to wage a ground war for the survival of their people without having to endure hellfire from above. “It’s important to remember that the successful no-fly zones have been carried out successfully because no one challenged the power of the country that was providing the air cover,” said Rae. “For example, the Kurds in northern Iraq, the no-fly zone that was put in place^ was allowed to be maintained, because it was respected by Hussein, was respected by the Russians, respected by the Chinese, respected by the Saudis, respected by everybody.” That simply is not the case today in Ukraine, said Rae. “One has to recognize what the risks of that would be,” he said. On Wednesday, the UN General Assembly, in its first emergency session since 1997, voted by a wide margin to call on Russia to stop its attack and bring home its troops. The vote was 141 to five with 35 countries abstaining, and was non-binding but reflected widespread world condemnation. Cuba, a popular vacation spot for Canadian sunseekers, was one of the handful of countries that voted with Russia. Meanwhile, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia were preparing to meet to day for the second time to find a way to end the war, but there was no sign either side would be able to find common ground. In his recent televised interview, Zelenskyy questioned how meaningful talks could be held with Russia while his people were being bombed. Russia’s bombardment on Ukraine has included cluster bombs, a cruel weapon that has been banned under a UN convention that neither Russia nor Ukraine has signed. Cluster bombs are munitions that arbitrarily scatter tiny bomblets and have a decades-long reputation for maiming and killing civilians, including children. Some bomblets can lie unexploded for years, if not decades, and they have created generations of amputees in Asia and the Middle East, especially among children who are drawn to the often brightly coloured but deadly submunitions. Mines Action Canada, which advocated for the international treaty to ban cluster bombs, denounced their use by the Russians on Wednesday, saying their use has resulted in civilian casualties in multiple Ukrainian cities, and follows Russian use of the weapon in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 and in Syria in 2015. “Shopping mall parking lots, city streets and residential areas are now contaminated with unexploded submunitions. Canada can take action to help Ukrainian communities affected by cluster munitions by funding humanitarian mine action operators to carry out risk education and eventually clearance operations,” Paul Hannon, the organization’s executive director, said in a statement. “Risk education, which warns people about dangerous explosive remnants of war like submunitions, is an urgent need as most civilians in Ukrainian cities have never seen these weapons before.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with Zelenskyy Wednesday to express solidarity and extend further support to the people in Ukraine. A readout of their call said Trudeau commended Zelenskyy’s “outstanding bravery and front-line leadership, calling it inspirational for Canadians and people around the world.” Earlier Wednesday, Trudeau said he thinks Putin has been surprised by the strength and unity of Western sanctions against him and his country. Trudeau said Putin likely never imagined that Germany would freeze its lucrative Nord Stream 2 pipeline project with Russia or decide to send anti-tank weapons and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. “For Germany to cancel Nord Stream, to talk about shipping weap-ons_ to Ukraine? These are things that I think have definitely taken aback the Russian system because we are so united in standing up, not just for Ukraine, but for the principles of democracy that matter so much.” Trudeau echoed what Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said Tuesday — that future sanctions against Russian business interests in Canada could cause some economic “collateral damage” domestically. He said he may look at compensating some businesses but added that allies in Europe will feel the economic effects of sanctions much more than Canada. — TheCanadianPressSanctions on Russia will cost Europe, too, early signs show RICK NOACK AND KATE BRADY PARIS — One factor has long underpinned push-back by European governments and business over sanctions on Russia: concern for their own pock-etbooks. But in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the continent has seen a rapid about-face and has already begun to feel the effects. When Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and backed separatists in Ukraine’s east, European business groups were among the most vocal skeptics of the EU sanctions that followed. Just weeks ago, a major German business association was celebrating a “gratifying” surge in trade with Russia, while Italian CeOs met virtually with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss stronger ties even as the crisis was heating up. In a matter of days, the tone has changed. Since the invasion began last week, Russia, facing a flurry of sanctions, has become an economic pariah. Even Putin’s defenders among European businesses, especially in Italy and Germany, have rallied behind what France’s finance minister this week called an “all-out economic and financial war” against Russia, the European Union’s fifth-biggest trading partner. (He later apologized for saying “war.”) “It is beyond any discussion that the German business world supports the imposed sanctions,” read a statement by the chairman of the German Eastern Business Association, a trade group in long-standing favour of robust ties to Russia. The widespread support for sanctions has already begun to come at an economic cost, on top of those borne from the turmoil of war, affecting energy prices, inflation and the cost of raw materials. Experts warn that backlash could follow. Many of the effects, including higher gas, electricity and food prices, have either set in or could hit in the next six weeks, said Andrew Kenning-ham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, a research consultancy. That spans the final stretch of the French presidential election campaign, potentially playing into the hands of the crowded field of populist candidates running against President Emmanuel Macron. In a written address to parliament last Friday, Macron prepared voters for volatile weeks and months ahead. “This major crisis will have consequences on our lives, our economy,” he said. Prime Minister Jean Castex has said the government would intervene to shield companies and citizens “as well as possible.” Sanctions “will have dramatic long-term implications and, relatively soon, very strong price implications, starting first with energy but then trickling down through the entire economy,” said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank. While much of the continent seems willing to bear the price for now, such effects could drive division, especially if Europe targets Russian gas and oil exports, or if Russia decides to withhold supplies. Even in the absence of such moves, the international oil benchmark surged beyond US$110 a barrel on Wednesday, as buyers re frained from purchasing Russian crude amid financial uncertainty and the prospect of supply chain disruptions. European natural gas — of which some 40 per cent comes from Russia — hit an all-time high this week. “We will need gas, we will need oil. And if that doesn’t keep coming, then political unity in Europe will be difficult to maintain,” Zachmann said. In the aftermath of the invasion, European leaders seemed to set economic concerns aside, agreeing to disconnect seven Russian banks from SWIFT, the world’s most important payment mechanism. European companies and banks with subsidiaries or strong links to Russia, including British multinational oil and gas company BP and French bank Societe Generale, are expected to bear the initial brunt. Countries including Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which have significantly reduced their dependency on Russia but remain more exposed than many other European nations, could also be among the first to feel the hit. The EU has yet to impose import bans on some of the most lucrative Russian exports — including oil, gas and raw materials. But experts say it will be impossible for the EU to fully disentangle desired sanctions targets from broader economic effects that will rebound on Europe. Trade with Russia and Ukraine has already been disrupted enormously. Key Russian banks will be cut off from SWIFT within days, major shipping companies have said they would stop most cargo deliveries to and from Russia, and flight bans are preventing some goods from reaching their destinations. German carmaker Volkswagen said this week that it would suspend production in two electric car plants because of supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict. For European consumers, the most noticeable impact could be surging inflation, which was already up. A potential “two per cent reduction in purchasing power doesn’t sound much, but those households who have lower incomes and high heating and fuel costs will be much worse affected,” Kenningham said. As inflation rises, inequality could deepen — and consumers in countries including Spain and Germany, where governments have largely refrained from freezing gas and electricity prices, could be hit more severely than consumers in France, for example, where policymakers intervened early. A senior French official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid, said the European Commission is already in contact with countries that could “if necessary, divert part of their production to the European Union.” The official cited Qatar and the United States, along with Algeria, Nigeria and other exporters, as possible options. The prospect of energy shortages — and a full halt in Russian deliveries — could overshadow European politics through the rest of the year. • MORECOVERAGEONA6-7,A12-13,C2-3 A_05_Mar-03-22_FP_01.indd 5 2022-03-02 10:36 PM ;