Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - March 25, 2024, Winnipeg, Manitoba
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MONDAY, MARCH 25, 2024
VOL 153 NO 114
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“It has gone Tory in the past,” she
said about Saint Boniface—Saint Vital,
which was held by former police offi-
cer Shelley Glover from 2008 to 2015.
Across Manitoba, it’s Tory blue: the
party has the support of 47 per cent —
a jump of eight points from the 2021
election. Support for the right-wing
People’s Party of Canada has shifted to
the Tory team.
The poll puts support for indepen-
dent parties at a paltry one per cent,
down from eight per cent in 2021.
Provincewide, the NDP is at 26 per
cent (up three percentage points) while
the Liberals are at 23 per cent (down
five points). Sixteen per cent of Mani-
tobans said they were undecided.
If Winnipeg were taken out of the
equation, the Conservatives rake in 61
per cent of decided voters (what it re-
ceived in the 2019 election), while the
NDP has 19 per cent and the Liberals
16 per cent, (both about the same as
the 2021 election).
Vandal, who will fight for the seat
a fourth time since 2015, said “the
election is a year and a half away” and
he is not fretting just yet.
“As the dates get closer, Canadians
are going to ask what kind of Canada
do we want. Do we want a Canada
that has good health care, child care,
dental care? (Are) we advancing on
pharmacare, good public services
that Canadians need? Or do we want a
Canada led by Poilievre’s Conservative
party that will focus on austerity and
cuts, cuts, cuts?
“Canadians will have that very
focused discussion and are going to
make a decision that I don’t think
reflects the polling numbers today.”
Having said that, Vandal, a former
professional boxer, said he’s prepared
to go the distance.
“I’m totally confident, as I always
am, but my colleagues across the coun-
try have to work hard… and engage
Canadians and make sure we deliver
on those important things: health care,
child care, dental care, the environ-
ment of course is front and centre, and
reconciliation is front and centre.”
The Free Press requested to speak
to senior Manitoba Tory MP James
Bezan, who was first elected in 2004,
but a Conservative party spokesper-
son said the request had be to sent to
Poilievre’s office for review.
Paul Thomas, University of Manito-
ba political studies professor emeritus,
said the governing party, despite Lead-
er Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity, still
has an advantage in Manitoba.
“(They) have concentrated strength,”
he said. “Their support is not spread
out, it is in central and south Winni-
peg. That’s what is holding up their
numbers. It’s Ben Carr’s seat, (Terry)
Duguid’s and (Dan) Vandal’s.”
Carr represents Winnipeg South
Centre.
Thomas said the federal NDP is
reaping benefits from the honeymoon
currently being enjoyed by the new
Manitoba government.
“They have the most popular
premier in the country, and they have
been governing successfully,” he said.
“That may have helped the NDP in
part.”
Kelly Saunders, an associate political
science professor at Brandon Univer-
sity, said the Probe poll shows Man-
itobans lean to the middle and don’t
support parties that veer too far to the
right.
“We’re more like Ontario with our
political culture than Alberta and
Saskatchewan,” Saunders said. “We’re
not being dominated by Conservatives,
we’re more centrist, and these num-
bers bare this out.
“We’re not seeing a groundswell of
support going to the Conservatives.”
kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca
POILIEVRE ● FROM A1
Grievances may be fuelled by
elements including xenophobia, gen-
der-related issues or general anti-gov-
ernment sentiment.
It says while threats against politi-
cians peak during election cycles or
major political announcements, RCMP
information showed that monthly and
annual averages had remained rela-
tively stable since September 2021.
Ideologically motivated violent
extremists “have increasingly normal-
ized threats against prominent public
figures outside the election cycle,” the
report concludes.
All threats to the prime minister and
other parliamentarians reported to the
RCMP are triaged and assessed for a
link to national security, the task force
adds. About 20 per cent of reported
threats to the prime minister and 13
per cent of those against parliamen-
tarians between September 2021 and
mid-2023 met the RCMP’s national
security threshold.
While extremist narratives and con-
spiracy theories do not usually man-
ifest themselves as an act of serious
violence, “they have the potential to
negatively affect the fabric of Canadi-
an society,” the report says.
The RCMP did not respond to a
request for comment in time for pub-
lication.
CSIS spokesman Eric Balsam
said the 2023 assessment “remains
unchanged.”
CSIS director David Vigneault told
a House of Commons committee this
month the spy service is devoting
about half of its counter-terrorism
resources to investigate the threat
of ideologically motivated violent ex-
tremism. “We’ve seen a number of the
threat vectors increasing,” he said.
The task force report says anti-au-
thority extremists have “almost cer-
tainly leveraged” social media posts
about foreign interference in Canadian
elections to “reinforce pre-existing
narratives around the inherent cor-
ruption of government institutions in
Canada.”
However, a narrative on the scale
of the “stolen election” rhetoric that
prompted the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of
the U.S. Capitol has not emerged in
the Canadian political landscape, the
report notes.
On the question of foreign inter-
ference, a broader companion report
says that as of last June the task force
had seen no evidence of a significant
cyberthreat to Canadian electoral pro-
cesses or election infrastructure from
state actors.
Political parties, candidates and
their staff continue to be targeted by
cyberthreat activity, however, and this
may take the form of online espionage,
disinformation or fabricated videos
known as deepfakes, the report adds.
Overall, the task force says “so-
phisticated, pervasive and persistent”
meddling efforts constitute a serious
threat to Canada’s national security
and the integrity of its democratic
institutions.
For certain foreign states, foreign
interference activities “are part of
their normal patterns of behaviour in
Canada and often peak during election
periods.”
Such interference, given its clandes-
tine or deceptive nature, often takes
place in a legal grey zone, where there
are no laws regulating the activities or
where interpretation of them is ambig-
uous, the report adds.
Canada is a high-priority foreign in-
terference target due to its role in key
global alliances and bodies, enjoying a
“robust international reputation” that
can be used or co-opted to help legiti-
mize foreign state interests.
In addition, Canada’s advanced,
knowledge-based economy is attractive
to foreign states seeking to develop
their own scientific and technological
expertise, the report says. Finally,
Canada is home to large diaspora com-
munities, which some foreign states
try to monitor, control or use to further
their own strategic goals.
“Foreign states develop important
relationships in Canada year round to
further their own political platforms,
and will use these relationships to their
advantage notably around election
time.”
Under a federal protocol, the heads
of key national security agencies
would inform a special panel of senior
bureaucrats of an interference attempt
during an election period.
There would be a public announce-
ment if the panel determined that an
incident — or an accumulation of inci-
dents — threatened Canada’s ability to
have a free and fair election.
There was no such announcement in
2021 or concerning the 2019 election.
In both ballots, the Liberals were
returned to government with minority
mandates while the Conservatives
formed the official Opposition.
Allegations of foreign interference in
these elections — suggestions fuelled
by anonymous leaks to the media — led
to a chorus of calls for a public inquiry.
The commission of inquiry, led by
Quebec judge Marie-Josée Hogue,
resumes hearings on Wednesday.
The hearings will focus on the
substance of allegations of foreign in-
terference by China, India, Russia and
others in the last two general elections.
The commission will hear from over
40 people, including Prime Minis-
ter Justin Trudeau, members of his
cabinet, senior government officials,
diaspora communities, political party
representatives, Elections Canada
and the office of the commissioner of
Canada elections.
An initial report of findings from the
commission is due May 3.
The inquiry will then shift to broad-
er policy issues, looking at the ability
of the government to detect, deter and
counter foreign interference targeting
Canada’s democratic processes. A final
report is expected by the end of the
year.
— The Canadian Press
THREATS ● FROM A1
SPENCER COLBY / THE CANADIAN PRESS
Russian Foreign Ministry spokes-
woman Maria Zakharova hit back at
the U.S. on Sunday. “Until the inves-
tigation into the terrorist attack in
Crocus is completed, any phrase from
Washington justifying Kyiv should be
considered as evidence,” she said on
her Telegram channel.
Amid concerns Putin could use the
attack as justification to order a new
mass mobilization for his invasion of
Ukraine, U.K. Chancellor of the Exche-
quer Jeremy Hunt accused the Russian
leader of creating a “smokescreen of
propaganda.”
“We have very little confidence in
anything the Russian government
says,” Hunt said in an interview on Sky
News.
Putin on Saturday said authori-
ties had detained all those directly
involved in the “barbaric” assault
by gunmen, who turned automatic
weapons against people attending a
rock concert. He vowed to hunt down
anyone responsible for ordering and
organizing the incursion.
Putin spoke after the Federal Se-
curity Service announced its agents
had detained the suspects in Russia’s
Bryansk region, which borders both
Ukraine and Russian ally Belarus. The
men planned to cross into Ukraine
where they “had contacts,” the Inter-
fax news service reported, citing a
statement by the service known as the
FSB that gave no further detail.
FSB director Alexander Bortnikov
reported to Putin that a total of 11
people had been detained, including
the four suspects.
Fire ripped through the massive
venue during Friday’s assault after
explosions were heard, leading to a
partial collapse of the roof. In addition
to the deaths some 180 people were in-
jured, Ria Novosti reported on Sunday,
citing regional health authorities.
Islamist groups have targeted
Russia in the past citing what they call
anti-Muslim policies by the Kremlin.
The seizure of a school in Beslan in the
south of the country led to more than
330 fatalities, many of them children,
in 2004. In 2010, twin suicide attacks
in Moscow subway stations killed at
least 40, while a suicide bombing killed
16, including the attacker, in the St.
Petersburg subway in 2017.
The FSB said earlier this month it
had prevented an attack on a Moscow
synagogue by what it called an Afghan
branch of Islamic State, Interfax
reported.
Moscow and much of Russia has
been largely insulated from the direct
effects of Putin’s February 2022 inva-
sion of Ukraine.
Kremlin forces launched an air
barrage against Ukraine Sunday,
including a missile that briefly crossed
into Polish airspace, and have stepped
up missile strikes against Ukrainian
cities and infrastructure in recent
weeks. On Friday, Russia unleashed
the biggest missile and drone assault
on Ukraine so far this year.
At the same time, Ukraine has
mounted a campaign of attacks inside
Russia even as its troops struggling
on the front line amid delays in vital
military aid from the U.S. and other
allies. Drones have hit factories and oil
refineries, while attackers in border
regions have staged raids.
— Bloomberg News
MOSCOW ● FROM A1
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds
an apple as he speaks during a rally in
Ottawa, on Sunday. A recent Leger poll put
his party’s support at 41 per cent nationally
while the Liberals were at 25 per cent and
the NDP trailed at 19 per cent.
MIKHAIL METZEL / KREMLIN POOL PHOTO
Russian President Vladimir Putin lights a candle Sunday to commemorate the victims.
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