Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - January 21, 2025, Winnipeg, Manitoba B5 TUESDAY JANUARY 21, 2025 ● BUSINESS@FREEPRESS.MB.CA ● WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COM BUSINESS U.S. tariff threats weighing on Canadian businesses: Bank of Canada survey OTTAWA — Nearly a quarter of Can- adian businesses expect their costs to rise with U.S. President Donald Trump taking office, according to a new sur- vey from the Bank of Canada. The central bank polled more than 900 business leaders in December. The results from its “business leaders’ pulse” were released Monday. The survey indicated 18 per cent of those businesses anticipate their prices to rise with the incoming U.S. admin- istration, while 11 per cent expected their prices to actually be lower. Overall, 40 per cent of companies expect a negative impact on their busi- ness, while a third said it was too early to tell. The Bank of Canada also interviewed senior management at about 100 com- panies, but virtually all the firms were polled before Trump first made his in- itial threat of hitting Canada with 25 per cent tariffs — although Trump’s rhetoric of the U.S. economic relation- ship with global trading partners was prevalent throughout his election cam- paign. Through November, Canadian firms expected sales growth to improve through 2025, driven by the anticipa- tion of further interest rate cuts ahead. The growth in sales expectations coincided with the Bank of Canada’s consumer expectation survey from the fourth quarter of 2024, in which con- sumer sentiment was improving on the expectation of further rate cuts. Fewer consumers reported they were spending less or planned to reduce their spending than in the previous quarter. Still, the high cost of goods and hous- ing, and economic uncertainty, still weigh on consumers and their pur- chase decisions. The source of the un- certainty has shifted from interest rate changes and government policy to the new U.S. administration. “During follow-up interviews (con- ducted between Nov. 25 and Dec. 3), consumers continued to mention how they are adjusting to these factors that weigh on their purchase decisions, such as by changing their shopping behav- iour,” the survey summary read. There was also an increase in the number of consumers who reported a probability in losing their job. “Job security is low because there are so many of us that can do the same job,” one respondent said. Still, only 12 per cent of businesses reported expecting lower employment levels at their firms — which is near historical averages. The number of firms expecting higher levels ticked slightly higher at 45 per cent. Businesses expect annual inflation to be between two-to-three per cent over the next two years, with some compan- ies mentioning potential U.S. tariffs affecting their inflation expectations upward. Meanwhile consumers’ expectations on inflation have returned to pre-pan- demic levels, though their perception of what the inflation rate actually is re- mains higher than before COVID. “Consumers’ inflation expectations for food and gasoline prices remained near their survey averages in the fourth quarter, while inflation expecta- tions for rent eased further,” the report read, adding consumers continued to think rent will grow at a slightly faster pace. “Their views about where inflation is heading over the next 12 months re- main more diverse than normal, with more people expecting deflation or very high levels of inflation.” — The Canadian Press NICK MURRAY Mental health in spotlight at Safety Services Manitoba’s 40th annual occupational health, safety conference Quality thoughts, quality working life M ARY Ann Baynton wants to help people suffer less. The consultant and public speaker, who lives in Southern Ontario, seeks to do that through her work as director of collaboration and strategy for Work- place Strategies for Mental Health, an initiative of Canada Life. “As I’ve gotten older I’ve realized most of our suffering comes from the way we think about people and situa- tions that we want to be different than they are,” Baynton said by phone last week during a work trip to Alberta. “When we can learn to realize that our mind creates most of our suffering, we can change the quality of our lives by changing the way we think.” That’s important for employees and employers to think about because of the amount of time most adults spend in the workplace. Baynton will be one of the keynote speakers at Safety Services Manitoba’s 40th annual occupational health and safety conference. Around 500 people are expected to attend the conference in Winnipeg, which takes place today through Thursday at the Victoria Inn Hotel & Convention Centre. Baynton’s first presentation is fo- cused on making tough decisions and will walk participants through “the four A’s” — accept, alter, adapt and avoid — which are strategies for ad- dressing stressors at work. If, for example, an employee is stressed by the tight deadlines they constantly face, that employee might ask themself if they can accept that tight deadlines are going to happen. If they can, then it’s no longer an affront each time it happens. The employee can also alter things about their external environment to make dealing with deadlines easier, such as eliminating distractions. Adapt refers to learning techniques to make internal changes so that one can focus in the face of stress, and avoid refers to avoiding other stressors when working on deadline. “This process of talking about some- thing that might have been very emo- tional for you, very stressful for you, is now something you’re making a deci- sion about,” Baynton said. During her second presentation, Baynton will explore how health and safety committees, and organizations in general, can address the psycho- social factors named in the National Standard of Canada on Psychological Health and Safety in the Workplace. Commissioned by the Mental Health Commission of Canada and launched in January 2013, the standard is a set of voluntary guidelines, tools and resour- ces intended to guide organizations in promoting mental health and pre- venting psychological harm at work. The standard establishes how work impacts employees and how people in a workplace impact each other. “It’s not about hard hats or steel toe boots, but it is about protecting the attention, the focus and the energy of employees while they’re at work,” Baynton said. Workplace hazards can include things like unresolved conflict and a lack of clarity about priorities or pro- cesses, according to Baynton. Her pres- entation will get participants thinking about asking the right questions so they can make concrete suggestions to management. In 2023, the Mental Health Commis- sion of Canada found in any given week, 500,000 Canadians miss work due to a psychological health issue. Last year, statistics from the federal government showed on average, Canadian employ- ees miss 2.4 days of work a year due to stress or mental health reasons. According to Baynton, work is good for people’s mental health when they’re working in psychologically healthy and safe work environments — work environments that do no harm to the psychological well-being of employees and, ideally, have a positive impact on the psychological health and safety of employees. “We don’t want to be causing distress, anxiety (or) burnout to the people that are working for us or with us,” she said. “There is the potential that work can lift us up and make us feel even better.” In addition to Baynton, keynote speakers at the Safety Services Mani- toba conference will include former Winnipeg Police Service chief Devon Clunis, who will speak about diversity in the workplace, and Tyler Hayden, a best-selling author, who will give a presentation about safety leadership. Bill Carr, an actor and comedian, and Dave Kramer, vice-president of SAFE Work Manitoba, will also give keynote presentations. Ron Janzen, president and CEO at Safety Services Manitoba, encourages people to attend the conference for four main reasons. “One is to gain insights from indus- try leaders on workplace safety and health,” he said. “Another is to engage in 30 different workshops. There will be networking of course: people will have opportunities to connect with around 500 safety professionals. And of course, to hear about the latest insights on occupational health and safety.” Safety Services Manitoba offers oc- cupational and road safety training and consulting solutions. It was founded in 1964. aaron.epp@freepress.mb.ca AARON EPP Rail pilot may not be renewed amid parliamentary break MONTREAL — An obscure but hard- fought — and hard-lobbied — battle over railway competition has steamed back to the surface. A pilot project mandating so-called extended interswitching that aims to give farmers, manufacturers and wholesalers more choice in their rail service is set to expire before a pro- rogued Parliament returns, with ship- pers and railways squaring off over its demise. Interswitching refers to the transfer of cargo between two railway com- panies at a point where their tracks meet. Extended interswitching is when Company A must transport that cargo farther along its own tracks to a point where it meets the rails of Company B. The latter then picks up the freight and continues on the main journey. The pilot, which began in 2023, ex- panded the interswitching limit to 160 kilometres from 30 km in the three Prairie provinces for an 18-month per- iod. The practice seeks to spur competi- tion and lower prices, as operators ship- ping from a grain elevator on Canadian National Railway Co. tracks, for ex- ample, could choose to have the freight transported by Canadian Pacific Kan- sas City Ltd. instead if the rate is better and a handoff point is within range. The experiment is set to expire on March 20, four days before the House of Commons returns from prorogation and would need to be renewed via legis- lation to continue. “The evaluation of the pilot project is ongoing,” said Transport Department spokeswoman Sau Sau Liu. Grain Growers of Canada executive director Kyle Larkin says the new rule has drastically increased the number of producers with access to two railways rather than one, enhancing competition and efficiency on the tracks. “It’s the only policy that can promote competition between the dual monop- olies that we see across the Prairies,” said Larkin, whose group represents more than 70,000 farmers. “Because grain elevators are tied to specific rail lines and because they can dictate the terms and dictate the price, that means the extra cost that shippers are having to incur is passed down the value chain to grain farmers.” Larkin also argued that a lack of competition breeds inefficient rail operations, which can lead to backlogs at grain elevators. Canada’s two railway giants, how- ever, say the policy does more harm than good. The Railway Association of Canada, which represents CN and CPKC, said shippers already enjoy some of the low- est freight rates globally and called ex- tended interswitching a “failed policy” that should be scrapped. U.S. railroad operators can now reach into Canada and snap up shipments handed over involuntarily by domestic railways, costing employees their jobs, the group warned. Teamsters Canada, which represents 16,000 railworkers, has also raised the spectre of layoffs. “From the get-go, there have been no new competitive options created with extended regulated interswitching in place,” the railway association said in an emailed statement. The policy causes “harmful mar- ket distortions” to freight rates, added CPKC spokesman Patrick Waldron. The move will also prolong transit times, boost diesel emissions and raise costs for consumers and producers, ac- cording to the railways. Some industry groups sought to high- light contradictions in the claims. John Corey, president of the Freight Management Association of Canada, questioned how a policy that creates no new competitive options could also fling open the gates to U.S. competitors. “The railways have just finished tell- ing us that they have the lowest rates in the world. If you have the lowest rates, how can somebody eat your lunch?” he asked. “All they have to do is match the price of the competing railway and they’ll keep that traffic for themselves.” The railways say their customers have opted to stick with them, reveal- ing clients’ contentment with the status quo and the new policy’s failure to stir up change. “With two months left to the pilot, not a single customer has used (extended interswitching) with CN since it was introduced back in September 2023,” said spokeswoman Ashley Michnowski. However, shippers say the reason they haven’t gone with another railway is that many were in multi-year con- tracts that expire after the pilot does. Grain shippers were “very reluctant” to dance with another partner under the program because “they haven’t want- ed to risk their relationship” with the original rail company once extended interswitching ends, said Larkin. He is one of many shippers calling for an ex- tension of at least 2 ½ years. Extended interswitching has been tried before. The Conservative gov- ernment launched a three-year trial in 2014. — The Canadian Press CHRISTOPHER REYNOLDS DARRYL DYCK / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES A rail line pilot project, which began in 2023, expanded the interswitching limit to 160 kilometres from 30 km in the three Prairie provinces for an 18-month period. It expires March 20. ;