Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - February 22, 2025, Winnipeg, Manitoba THINK TANK COMMENT EDITOR: RUSSELL WANGERSKY 204-697-7269 ● RUSSELL.WANGERSKY@WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COM A9 SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22, 2025 Ideas, Issues, Insights The real risk of sticking too close to Trudeau “K IM! Kim! You’re just like him!” A long time ago, in a campaign far away, that was the chant which dogged and doomed Kim Campbell’s 1993 election campaign. It’s a refrain Liberal party frontrunner Mark Carney better hope he doesn’t hear. If he does, it means he’s lost the change argument and any chance of being prime minister for more than a few months. Just as Kim Campbell did. Her remarkable ascension to the leadership of the Progressive Conservative party saw the steepest rise and fall in political popularity ever in Canada. The prospect of a change in leader from the terminally unpopular Brian Mulroney lifted her party 30 points in just six weeks, according to one poll. Two months after being installed as prime minister, Campbell called an election and presided over the single-biggest electoral wipeout in Canadian history, winning just two seats. She promised to be “new and different.” To voters, she turned out to be “more of the same.” I know. I was there. I wrote a book about it, called Poisoned Chalice (a bestseller in my fami- ly, at least). My thesis was that Brian Mulroney handed her a poisoned chalice of unpopularity and a desire for change. But she chose to drink from the cup. Having teased the electorate with the prospect of change, she presented a platform and persona that was the antithesis of that change. Justin Trudeau’s decade in power has fashioned its own poisoned chalice for his successor. If Mark Carney does not choose to be sufficiently different from Justin Trudeau, he will meet a similar ending. Without two regional parties vacuuming away votes (Reform in the West and the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec), a Liberal official Opposition remains possible. But if Carney loses the change argument to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, all bets are off, Donald Trump notwithstanding. Right now, Carney is benefiting from the U.S. president’s political pronouncements about Can- ada’s future, not any of his own. How do I know? Take this test. Name one policy idea that Carney has announced. Now, name one Poilievre has. Carbon tax, right? Take this second test. Carney wants to adjust the carbon tax, keeping parts of it, getting rid of others. Poilievre wants to axe it. Which of these seems like real change? This is not to argue the merits of one policy over the other. It is to argue that in a political en- vironment where voters had pronounced so vivid- ly on the need for a change of prime minister that he was forced to resign, anything that smacks of “more of the same” runs real risks. Instead, Carney is mostly offering what might be called “sensible change.” His platform so far is a general set of statements about new ways of budgeting and spending, making government more efficient and effective, building more infra- structure and encouraging more home construc- tion. Unsurprisingly, given his international work and expertise in this area, Carney’s most detailed proposals deal with climate change and clean energy. All of these are conventionally interesting but in only one area — eliminating the consumer car- bon tax — is he showing anything demonstrably different from what a Justin Trudeau government would keep doing if it had the chance? The rest could come from a Liberal throne speech. Come to think of it, perhaps that is what he is writing. A throne speech for governing that can become a platform for campaigning. While this saves time, of which he has precious little, it will not save seats. At least not enough to form government. The bet he is making so far is that voters want- ed a change in prime minister, not necessarily a change in government. Two years of sustained Conservative popularity in the polls make that one very risky bet. It will be enough to win the Liberal leadership race. It is not enough to win the electoral race. The Conservatives’ campaign advantage in fundraising, organization, candidates and mes- saging is stark in comparison to the Liberals. None of this disappears just because polls tighten. In fact, that’s when its value in voting efficiency and seat results comes to the fore. There are two moods in Canada today. A desire for a change of direction and trepidation about the future. The leader that speaks to this best will win, big. More of the same seems hardly suffi- cient when voters have been thinking “we can’t keep doing this.” Carney is missing his time and chance to strike bold new directions and actions to meet those moods and match this moment. Time and Chance, by the way, is the title of Kim Campbell’s memoirs. David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government. Designing the police headquarters inquiry ON Feb. 11, the NDP government announced the appointment of lawyer Garth Smorang to lead an inquiry into the cost overruns and serious wrongdoing involved with the purchase and ren- ovation of the police headquarters in downtown Winnipeg. Inquiries are temporary advisory bodies which are appointed by governments, typically after a tragedy or scandal of some kind. Some inquiries involve mainly legal investigations, others are mainly in-depth policy studies and some are com- binations of both. For reasons identified below, the Winnipeg Police Service headquarters (HQ) inquiry seems to be more a policy study than a legal investigation. The HQ scandal was the most high-profile of a number of controversial development decisions made during a decade of illegal and unethical wheeling and dealing at city hall when Sam Katz served as mayor (2004-2014), supported by his business partner and friend Phil Sheegl, who eventually rose to the top public service position of chief administrative officer. Only a brief, incomplete background to the HQ case is possible here. There was a RCMP investigation of alleged fraud, bribery and kick- backs leading to a recommendation for criminal charges, a decision by provincial justice officials not to prosecute and a successful civil suit by the city against Sheegl for accepting a bribe. The former PC government had refused the city’s request for an inquiry, while the NDP, then in opposition, promised to call one, a promise it fulfilled approximately 15 months after taking office in October 2023. The scope of the inquiry has been limited to the police HQ scandal, leaving aside other problem- atic development deals. This makes the process more manageable in terms of time (completion by January 2027) and cost ($2 million). Compared to past inquiries, this might not seem like a lot of time/money, but a great deal of investigative work and legal analysis has already been done. Generally to avoid drift and delay, it is better to set more specific than general terms of reference for an inquiry. The terms for the HQ inquiry are quite expansive and policy oriented, covering a number of broad areas: the decision-making pro- cess, conflict of interest rules and accountability mechanisms in city government; the soundness of the planning, approval and management of major projects; the previous conduct of the mayor, coun- cil and senior administrative officials; and the legislative framework set by the province for city government, including the role of the Municipal Board. The purpose of the inquiry is not to sec- ond-guess the earlier legal judgment call not to prosecute made by independent justice officials. Rather, the focus is on establishing the circum- stances which allowed wrongdoing to occur. The further aim is to recommend reforms intended to restore public confidence in the capacity of city government to plan and execute major projects efficiently and ethically. Opinion surveys elsewhere show that signifi- cant delay in creating an inquiry lowers public confidence that it can deliver value. It has been a decade since the HQ scandal, so there may be lost documents and gaps in the memories of key actors. The commissioner cannot assign blame or recommend prosecution. This clashes with the finding in opinion surveys elsewhere that the public shows more interest in the assignment of blame and less interest in the recommendations meant to prevent a repeat of wrongdoing. The design of the HQ inquiry is left mainly to Smorang. He is required to issue at least one in- terim report and must seek government approval for any expansion or extension of his mandate, requirements seemingly meant to prevent drift and cost overruns. The commissioner must make a number of pro- cedural choices which will affect the efficiency, fairness and effectiveness of the process. Given the policy orientation of his mandate, he will need to hire more than lawyers to support his work. He may also decide to commission research studies to clarify key concepts in his mandate and to identify best governance practices in other jurisdictions. Conducting an inquiry which is thorough while respecting the right of individuals to fair treatment depends on the creation of procedural safeguards and the exercise of wise judgments by the commissioner. Typically, commissioners rely on co-operation from potential witnesses. Smorang has authori- ty to issue subpoenas to compel testimony. The prohibition on the commissioner recommending prosecution may not reassure key actors that they can safely co-operate with the inquiry. Legal coercion to obtain documents and testi- mony can lead to reputational damage, delays and costs that outweigh benefits. To ensure fairness, commissioners have been known to provide witnesses with confidential notices of adverse findings so they can prepare for tough questions. Permission is granted for both public hearings and private hearings. Satisfying the public that all informed and interested individuals have been heard requires that a number of open hearings be held. They might be complemented by a smaller number of private meetings as a way to encour- age reluctant witnesses to come forward. Mayors, councillors and senior administrators strive for growth which brings increased (mainly property tax) revenues to pay for modern city services. This leads to a close interactive process with the property development and the wider business community. The process of accommoda- tion among public and private elites leads to temp- tations to break or bend legal rules and unwritten norms of ethical behaviour. Even if the HQ inquiry does not produce new revelations leading to prosecutions, it could add value by explaining why “hard” and “soft” cor- ruption came to city hall. Paul G. Thomas is professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba. Accelerating Canada’s school food programming IN the wake of the massive shock from Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements and his persistent mentions of making Canada the 51st U.S. state, Canadians are scrambling for ways to protect our jobs, communities, businesses and, indeed, our sovereignty. This may prove to be one of the most critical national conversa- tions in our history. But in the search for new solutions, we should not overlook credible policies and programs already in place that merit greater support. In its April 2024 budget, the federal gov- ernment made good on a prior commitment, allocating $1 billion over five years to fund a National School Food Program. At an average of $200 million per year, this represents about one-fifth of what provinces, territories, individual parents, and community donors collectively contribute to school food programs, which currently reach about one- third of the public school students in Canada. It’s not enough money to establish universal school food access across Canada, but the fed- eral contribution is a big boost to the survival of current programs and the prospects for their long-term development. In the nine months since the budget an- nouncement, six jurisdictions have signed agreements to accept federal funds: Newfound- land and Labrador, Manitoba, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami and New Brunswick. With well-established school food networks — including parents, practi- tioners, teachers, chefs, supply chains and kitchens — already in place across the country, the new money began to flow as soon as the agreements were signed. Manitoba signed an agreement for $17.2 million over the next three years. This is in addition to the increased in- vestment in school nutrition of $30 million for the 2024-25 school year previously made by the Manitoba government. It’s likely that the remaining provinces, territories and Indigenous organizations will all sign agreements with the federal govern- ment before the March 31 deadline to access year-one funding. This will place the National School Food Program agreements among the most rapidly implemented federal-provincial agreements in recent memory. Over the past decade, the case for the health, educational and social benefits of school food has become increasingly compelling. At the same time, the steep rise in food costs, part of an acute affordability crisis, has made expand- ing and stabilizing school food programs more urgent — not only for all the kids who rely on a daily healthy school meal, but also as a small but important contribution to the food security of families and communities. With the looming threat of massive U.S. tar- iffs on virtually all Canadian exports, and the prospect of retaliatory tariffs on agricultural and consumer products, Canadians could soon see yet another surge in food prices, including a wide variety of fresh fruit and vegetables im- ported from the U.S. This threat underscores another important benefit of locally based school food programs: their role in strengthen- ing local and regional food sources and supply chains, making communities more resilient to global market disruptions. In those schools and communities where school food programs are relatively robust and well-funded, they are already having a signif- icant impact on the local economy — boosting demand for locally supplied produce and other agricultural products while creating jobs for suppliers, chefs and food service workers. “At the Child Nutrition Council of Manitoba, we encourage schools to support local retail- ers, suppliers and producers,” said Wendy Bloomfield, the council’s board chairperson. “From our long experience of working with schools, we know that these critical community partnerships are mutually beneficial for the thousands of Manitoba students participating each day and the communities in which they live, and they provide opportunities for learn- ing about local food production.” As the number and comprehensiveness of school food programs continues to grow, they will have a significant economic impact, even in small communities. These programs can encourage the establishment, re-establishment and growth of local and regional supply hubs, making the appeal to “Buy Local” not only desirable but feasible for an increasingly large group of consumers. As all levels of governments, businesses and communities across Canada scramble for effective responses to the looming threat of economic chaos, the potential of school food programming must not be overlooked. Regardless of the timing of the next federal election or the political makeup of the future government, MPs and their parties must unite in recognizing the urgent need to sustain and expand school food from coast to coast to coast. Debbie Field is the national co-ordinator of the Coalition for Healthy School Food, Canada’s largest school food network. DAVID MCLAUGHLIN DEBBIE FIELD PAUL G. THOMAS JOHN WOODS / FREE PRESS FILES Mark Carney, candidate for the Liberal party leadership, speaks at Launch Co-working Space on Feb. 10. ;