Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 6, 2025, Winnipeg, Manitoba THINK TANK COMMENT EDITOR: RUSSELL WANGERSKY 204-697-7269 ● RUSSELL.WANGERSKY@WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COM A7 THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2025 Ideas, Issues, Insights It’s time for Canada to play hardball with Trump P RIME Minister Mark Carney should rethink his well-worn phrase: “There are times to hit back and times to talk and right now is the time to talk.” But now those talks are going nowhere fast — and U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening another 10 per cent tariff on Can- adian products. The Canadian government can’t just keep doing what it has done in the recent past to manage effectively the Canada-U.S. relationship under Trump. He simply can’t be believed or trusted. Besides, we have no real experience in han- dling a White House that views Canada harshly, refers to us derogatorily as the “51st state” and is unwilling to recognize the benefits of a harmo- nious and highly integrated partnership. So the rules of the diplomatic game have fundamentally changed and it’s time to think outside the bilater- al box. Let’s be honest: Trump is essentially running an economic extortion racket. He believes that he holds all of the important cards. More impor- tantly, he doesn’t fear Canada because he doesn’t think it has any leverage over the U.S. Consequently, the Trump White House is playing us like a finely tuned fiddle. Why are we allowing ourselves to be humiliated by Trump? It’s time for Canada to call out the U.S. “black- mailer-in-chief.” The immediate fear for Canada is that it is like- ly to lose the heretofore trade protection under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement at any time. When that happens, Trump’s economic nationalism and trade coercion impulses will be completely uninhibited. And that will leave us un- protected and vulnerable to any and every trade threat that Trump can think of. With the end to trade rules, a dispute settle- ment mechanism and integrative supply chains, we must drastically change the Canada-U.S. calculus. The reality is that Canada needs to play hard- ball with the U.S. — as China has done effectively by withholding critical mineral exports. Look, it’s the only thing that Trump really understands. Otherwise, this country will be faced with almost four years of constant threats, extortion and, quite possibly, having to submit to Trump’s every whim. But do we really want Trump to own us when it comes to trade and poli- cy-making autonomy for the rest of his term? That’s why Canada has to get Trump’s attention by threatening to cut off something that the U.S. wants and needs. I mean, there’s a reason why the tariffs on oil, gas, rare earths and potash are at 10 per cent. Simply put, we need to get Trump thinking about the damage that putting a surcharge on these products — or even an outright ban — will inflict on U.S. industry, the agricultural sector and American consumers. So I’m suggesting Canada stop exporting to the U.S. that which they so desperately covet, and to use that to twist Trump’s arm. How is Trump go- ing to explain to American voters, including those in rural areas, why they can’t get cheap Canadian oil, gas and potash? Maybe that sounds like economic suicide to you. But it’s called taking off the gloves and showing some backbone, standing up for our- selves and sending a very potent message to official Washington. That is to say: If you come after us on any of our exports, we are going to make you pay dearly. We also need to understand that trade diversifi- cation is a fantasy. And it’s not going to happen in the short term. It’s just something that politicians tell us so we won’t totally lose hope. Indeed, the “Third Option” of the early 1970s has been dead for more than 50 years now and it was mostly a bust. The fact remains that the U.S. is always going to be our most important trade market for a host of reasons (e.g., think about the tyranny of geography and business compatibili- ty). Finally, a ban could provide us with some criti- cally important bargaining chips with the U.S. It would also put Ottawa in a stronger negoti- ating position if we have to cobble together some sort of bilateral trade deal with Trump’s Wash- ington. Of course, such a high-risk move at deterrence is not without potential costs. There are sure to be negative implications for federal-provincial relations, job and investment losses for both Al- berta and Saskatchewan and the real possibility that the U.S. will switch to alternative suppliers. But we need to stand up to the bully, to stop being America’s punching bag and to win back some respect for Canada and Canadians. In other words, we need to get Trump to think twice about threatening us with additional tariffs on Canadian-produced films, pharmaceuticals, you name it. I know this is obviously not an ideal strategy over the long term. I’m certain that skeptics and representatives of Canada’s business community will have some valid criticisms of their own. But they will need to come up with a better option, and one that gets Trump to perish any thought of coming for Canada in a post-CUSMA world. Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown. A low-carbon future — with nuclear power MANITOBA stands at a crossroads. With the release of the province’s economic development strategy and roadmap to net zero, we have a rare opportunity to align our economic and energy priorities for a clean and secure future. But sustainable growth will not happen by acci- dent. It requires data-driven planning, foresight and courage. Without a long-term plan, the cost of living will rise as energy prices climb and industries relocate to where electricity is cheaper and more reliable. Rural communities could see job opportunities disappear. Families might be told to conserve power during extreme weather because supply can’t keep up. That future isn’t far off. Manitoba Hydro’s own planning shows new capacity could be required as early as fiscal 2029-30, with demand expected to more than double by 2050. In the near term, Manitoba must make the most of what we already have through efficiency and demand-side management. These tools stretch our existing capacity and buy us time. But they cannot meet the scale of growth ahead. The global race to build digital infrastructure is accelerating demand for low-carbon, depend- able electricity. Hyperscalers — large technology companies building data centres — are expand- ing rapidly, while electrification in transporta- tion, industry and housing continues to grow. At the same time, major projects like the proposed redevelopment of the Port of Churchill could significantly increase Manitoba’s power needs during both construction and operations. Meeting these growing demands while support- ing economic and community development will require data-driven, long-term planning for new power generation. Renewables such as wind and solar are vital to Manitoba’s energy future, but their output varies. Six hundred megawatts of wind deliver about 150 megawatts of firm capacity, and when the wind does not blow, the lights still need to stay on. Renewables alone cannot do it all. We need firm, clean baseload power to back them up. This fall, the Manitoba Green Advantage hosted Powering Possibility: Manitoba’s Energy Future. Indigenous partners, business leaders and energy experts came together to discuss our province’s path forward. The message was clear: Manitoba needs a long-term energy plan that con- nects economic development, innovation and the Path to Net Zero by 2050, building an economy that is clean, reliable, affordable and competitive. Across the country, other provinces are al- ready acting. Ontario Power Generation has been licensed to build a BWRX-300 small modular reactor (SMR) at Darlington; New Brunswick’s NB Power is advancing the ARC-100 SMR at Point Lepreau; Saskatchewan is targeting the mid-2030s for its first SMR deployment near Estevan; and planning is underway in Alberta for a nuclear project at Peace River. For many Manitobans, nuclear still evokes Cold War fears, but today’s technology is a different story. Small modular reactors are compact, modern systems with advanced safety features that didn’t exist decades ago. While not a silver bullet, nucle- ar is emerging as a vital baseload tool, providing dependable, carbon-free power when the sun isn’t shining, the wind isn’t blowing or drought limits hydro capacity. Waste remains a common concern, yet the total volume produced over a person’s lifetime would fit in a 250 ml coffee cup. And unlike carbon emissions that dissipate into the atmosphere, nuclear waste is fully contained, monitored and safely managed. In a diversified system, it complements renewables, strengthening both reliability and decarbonization. Manitoba is not yet part of the interprovincial memorandum of understanding on SMRs, a partnership signed by New Brunswick, Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta. Joining would not commit us to building a reactor. It would simply give Manitoba a seat at the table and an opportunity to help shape Can- ada’s clean energy policy, influence investment decisions and position our skilled workforce and critical mineral resources in a growing national supply chain. Staying on the sidelines could mean being left behind as the next wave of clean energy develop- ment moves forward without us. Participation would also enable Manitoba to leverage our existing research and infrastruc- ture assets, including the Whiteshell Laboratories site near Pinawa. The facility represents decades of nuclear science expertise and could once again serve as a hub for applied research, testing and training. With the right partnerships, Manitoba could re-establish itself as a leader in clean-energy innovation, turning a legacy site into a catalyst for the future. Manitoba’s advantages are real. We have world- class hydroelectricity, abundant minerals and a culture of innovation. Other provinces are mov- ing fast, and investors are watching for jurisdic- tions that can deliver clean, firm power. Aligning our economic and energy strategies would allow Manitoba to turn its natural strengths into lasting prosperity, but only if we act boldly and collabo- ratively. Indigenous communities are already leading in clean energy partnerships across the province. Their leadership in stewardship, ownership and governance will be critical to achieving both reconciliation and resiliency. Efficiency and conservation will always matter, but they are not substitutes for vision. Manitoba’s clean growth depends on planning beyond the next demand peak. The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce, through the Manitoba Green Advan- tage, stands ready to help build that future. A future powered by innovation, grounded in evi- dence and inspired by the same resourcefulness that has always defined Manitobans. Manitoba can either power the low-carbon economy, or be powered by those who do. Christa Rust is the program director for the Manitoba Green Advan- tage, an initiative of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce that drives innovation, investment and collaboration to strengthen Manitoba’s leadership in the green economy. ADRIAN WYLD / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Perhaps the time for friendly meetings such as this one is over. Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump met in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 3. PETER MCKENNA CHRISTA RUST ;