Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg Free Press (Newspaper) - November 7, 2025, Winnipeg, Manitoba THINK TANK COMMENT EDITOR: RUSSELL WANGERSKY 204-697-7269 ● RUSSELL.WANGERSKY@WINNIPEGFREEPRESS.COM A7 FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2025 Ideas, Issues, Insights Labour and immigration: it’s not so simple I MMIGRATION is a hot-button political issue. High unemployment rates for young Can- adians, housing shortages and skyrocketing rents have many politicians calling for dramatic changes to Canadian immigration policies. For example, some have been calling for an end to critical programs like the Temporary Foreign Worker program and slashing the number of new permanent residents. The policy of the federal government from 2015 to 2023 was one of wide-open doors, with Can- ada admitting a record number of newcomers. Facing housing shortages, rising rents and high unemployment for youth, and in some immigrant populations, Ottawa took a 180-degree policy pivot, cutting immigration targets. The targets for 2025 were almost 20 per cent below the 2024 lev- els with further reductions planned in the years to come. The initial allocation for the provincial nominee program was cut in half. These broad shifts do not serve the Canadian economy, nor new Canadians. The drivers behind the policy shift are real. Canada’s big cities do have a housing crisis. Canadian youth are facing a difficult time finding jobs. Some regions of the country have seen an in- creased strain on social services and health care. Too many people have been admitted to Canada without a link to employment opportunities. However, a countrywide one-size-fits-all immi- gration and labour policy is not the right answer. What is needed for Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal is not what is needed in other parts of the country. Pressures in other regions of Canada are not the same as in our large cities, and new Canadians are a critical part of the Manitoba la- bour force in places like Notre Dame de Lourdes, Neepawa, Brandon and Winnipeg. Provinces, not the federal government, are best positioned to manage the labour requirements in their own region. Lack of access to labour is an issue today for hog producers. There are current cases where farmers have shuttered barn sites due to labour shortages. This problem will only be exacerbated if further restrictions are placed on immigration. To ensure ongoing sustainable hog production and pork processing, Manitoba producers and processors rely on immigration programs like the provincial nominee program. The sector hires foreign workers and supports them on a path to permanent residency to fill vacant positions. This approach successfully matches newcomers with stable full-time work. There is a high re- tention rate of foreign workers brought in by the hog sector. Foreign workers receive training and put roots into the communities where they settle. Neepawa is a prime example of a town that has been revitalized by the influx of new Canadians. The town is one of the fastest-growing in Canada, boasting a new hospital and new road infrastruc- ture because of investment by the hog sector and immigrants brought in to support the industry. The negative impacts of labour shortfalls on hog producers and pork processors go beyond productivity losses. The sector has invested heavily in improving biosecurity and the abili- ty to manage production diseases like porcine epidemic diarrhea and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, as well as keeping foreign animal diseases like African swine fever and foot and mouth disease out of the country. Labour shortages make this work more difficult and add strain to producers’ efforts to protect the animals under their care from disease. The impacts of these diseases are not theoreti- cal. The last major outbreak of epidemic diarrhea in Manitoba, which began in the fall of 2021 and ran through the spring of 2023, is estimated to have cost the industry more than $100 million. Current estimates indicate that porcine repro- ductive and respiratory syndrome in the U.S. is costing the industry there $1.65 billion annually. Hog production and processing in Manitoba have the opportunity for growth, if barriers like labour shortfalls can be overcome. New building and investment not only provide on-farm and spin-off employment opportunities, but also help build and sustain Manitoba’s rural communities through population growth, increased school en- rolment, additional small business opportunities and enhanced community services. Budget 2025 included commitments to priori- tize immigration for rural, remote and tariff-hit businesses, and to increase the number of new Canadians that are coming to fill specific jobs. These are positive announcements. However, it is not all that is needed. First, we need to abandon a blanket approach for all of Can- ada. Canada is a vast country with different needs for every region. Canadian immigration policy should reflect the country’s diversity. For example, the provincial nominee program has successfully helped meet regional needs. This program needs to be enhanced, not reduced. Sec- ond, policy should shift emphasis to the quality of immigration, versus a primary focus on the num- ber of people entering Canada. More newcomers should have skills aligned with market needs, like the hog sector in Manitoba. Immigration and labour needs vary widely across Canada. Rather than governments deliv- ering short “social media ready” soundbites, we should be focused on thoughtful immigration and labour policies targeting regional and sectorial needs. Cam Dahl is the general manager of the Manitoba Pork Council. Shaping expectations about a balanced budget IN September, Manitoba Finance Minister Adrien Sala released the public accounts on spending for the 2024-25 fiscal year, together with the fiscal update for the first quarter of 2025. Most of the significant economic and financial numbers were heading in the wrong direction, which suggested the NDP government will be hard-pressed to fulfil its campaign promise to de- liver a balanced budget ahead of the next election, which must occur on or before Oct. 5, 2027. My speculation, not based on any insider infor- mation, is that the government will break that promise. Instead, before the election, it will issue a multi-year financial plan which lays out a path to balance during a second term. That plan will be supported by a communications campaign intend- ed to explain the unpredictable and uncontrollable forces — such as wildfires and tariffs — which have driven revenues down and spending up. To enhance its re-election prospects, which are presently good, the government must tell a com- pelling budgetary story which signals its ongoing commitment to prudent financial management. Given the complexities of fiscal policy, the pub- lic’s limited knowledge of government finances, the fragmented media environment and the requirement for concise messages which speak to the needs and concerns of all voters, the commu- nications task will be difficult. At the fiscal update on Sept. 25, the finance minister boasted, among other things, that the NDP had reduced the deficit by 42 per cent since taking office, claimed operational spending in most departments was stable, pointed to a contin- gency fund of $200 million and noted that both the auditor general and the credit rating agencies had issued positive reports on the province’s financial position. Against these “positive” indicators, he acknowl- edged that revenue growth would fall below the budget forecast, deficits would be higher and the debt to GDP ratio would increase. Higher than forecast spending had occurred in the major departments of health and families. A contingency of $200 million does not go far in a $25 billion budget. On the revenue side, federal financial transfer payments, which account for approximately one-third of total revenues, are scheduled to decline over the next several years. Despite these discouraging numbers, the finance minister insisted the commitment to balance by 2027 was firm. One day later, Premier Wab Kinew signalled optimism with the release of an economic strate- gy document which set the ambitious goal of Man- itoba becoming by 2040 a “have” province which no longer qualified for equalization payments (currently 19 per cent of its revenues) from the national government. Such an aspirational goal to motivate and stretch performance is fine, but it is probably not realistic in just 14 years. Manitoba’s economy is diversified, stable and resilient. However, it lacks a powerful growth engine. Hydro is a major asset, but it will never generate enough windfall earn- ings to power the province to “have” status. The economic strategy contains useful ideas (tax breaks, investments, training, etc.) and the premier has hinted that several megaprojects are in the planning stages. Transforming the fundamentals of the econo- my, however, will require some economic good fortune and will likely take decades. There is also the risk that Parliament will modify the equal- ization formula reducing Manitoba’s entitlement, as could the performance of other provincial economies. For both public policy and political reasons, the government needs to tell a convincing budgetary story which engages the public, speaks to their concerns about taxes and spending and mobiliz- es support for future budgetary actions. Most Manitobans want government which is afford- able — nobody loves tax increases (especially for themselves), but they also see the necessity for spending to promote economic growth and to address ongoing problems in such fields as healthcare, social services, housing and crime. They also want assurances that they are obtain- ing value for their tax dollars. At some point there will have to be tax increas- es. Personal and corporate income and sales taxes are the main own-source revenues for the prov- ince. To date, the government has retained the income tax cuts made by the former government. The decision in 2024 to de-index tax brackets for personal income taxes brought in some limited new revenue. This will be offset by the selective cuts to sales tax and tax credits promised in the economic strategy document. To demonstrate it is prepared to listen, the government could launch a consultation exercise on the options for public finance over the medi- um range future. A task force could develop an approach to “balance” which goes beyond the nar- row focus on the financial deficit to include the equally important social, performance and trust deficits. It could explain why taxes must increase, how tax changes must balance economic efficien- cy with fairness and how any changes will impact different segments of the public. Other topics to be examined would be how to put spending on a sustainable path and how to reduce dependence on federal transfer payments. No one in government asked for this free ad- vice, which I am certain will be treated for what it is worth. Paul G. Thomas is professor emeritus of political studies at the Univer- sity of Manitoba. Settlement won’t fix the problem IT’S a cliché that the book is always better than the movie, but that’s what our house- hold thought as we watched Netflix’s version of The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Society. The redeeming features, aside from beau- tiful Guernsey views and costuming, were at the end. As the credits scrolled, we heard audio clips of the literary society, discuss- ing favourite pieces of literature. We heard about Virginia Woolf’s Mrs. Dalloway, Oscar Wilde’s The Importance of Being Earnest and our favourite, A.A. Milne’s “When I was one.” My 14-year-old grinned. We conclud- ed this was the best part. “This is what the movie should have been about.” He’s right. Some published reviews agreed, although only a few reviewers had read the book by Mary Ann Shaffer and Annie Bar- rows, too. This experience epitomizes what creatives — authors, illustrators and their publishers — are up against with the development of ar- tificial intelligence. A social media post from a well-known illustrator encouraged anyone with published work to Google the Atlantic Weekly’s AI watchdog, which let authors know if their books had been scraped by AI. A recent court case with Anthropic, one of the AI companies involved (others include Meta), is offering a court-ordered settlement to those whose books were used to harvest material to build AI engines such as Claude or ChatGPT. I immediately went to the AI watchdog search and learned that two of my books were scraped for their content. That meant, in theory, that I’m eligible to be part of the claims settlement. I completed online forms, hoping I had the right information to make a claim. Otherwise, my work and my intel- lectual property just serves as free fodder for the AI machine, which it took without permission. The process of losing one’s intellectual property hasn’t been a surprise. For years, I’ve seen people illegally uploading my books, or smaller bits of copyrighted materi- al, like knitting designs, onto the web. These individuals say they’re “sharing” with a friend, much the way one might have loaned a book or a pattern in person. Unfortunately, instead of passing along a legally purchased hard copy to share with one friend, these online platforms illegally ‘share’ with many thousands. Most authors never earn much in royalties, as they earn little per book sale, usually less than a dollar. Further, if the author received an advance on sales, before the book was published, it’s possible that they’ll never sell enough copies to result in further royalties, as the author owes the publisher until the advance is earned back through sales. Imag- ine thousands of “free” e-distributions of their books, robbing authors of any financial benefit from their work. The Anthropic claims settlement indicates that authors’ books deemed legitimate will receive compensation. That amount is about US$3,000 a book. Today’s creatives who sell their intellectual property also inadvertently fuel AI, which may cheat them out of their jobs. As additional proof, I cruised online job boards and LinkedIn to see where it suggest- ed I apply. Over time, freelance work has morphed. My feed used to involve paying writing, teaching or editing work, inter- spersed with literary “volunteer” opportuni- ties. Then, I was clicking through job adverts with great hourly pay, until I read the de- scriptions. These suggested the work would teach AI how to improve its writing. Now, those same AI gigs fill my feed, but they pay just slightly better than minimum wage. AI has devalued the work of writers. As a response, some freelancers boast that they spend their time editing AI to make it look more realistic. They claim AI usage allows them to “write” more in a day. Others swear off AI but lose work because the editors can’t tell what’s real and what’s artificially produced. Perhaps we enjoyed those sweeping Guernsey landscapes and costumes when we watched a movie based on a beloved book. However, we realized that a regurgitat- ed movie version that changes the details, deletes complexity and catches only its spirit fails us. We still want to hear the words and discussion of real authors, music performed live by musicians and to see art made by human artists. Yes, technology offers many short cuts, but AI, like autotune, might rip away our humanity and stunt our intellectual property in the process. Don’t get me wrong. If the claims set- tlement comes to fruition, I’ll cash those cheques, but it’s no free lunch, either. This solution doesn’t offer a financially viable fu- ture for creators like writers and illustrators to make a living, too. Joanne Seiff, a Winnipeg author, has been contributing opin- ions and analysis to the Free Press since 2009. CONNOR MCDOWELL / BRANDON SUN FILES Towns such as Neepawa are undergoing rapid growth owing to immigration and the hog industry. As Cam Dahl points out, federal immigration rule changes could put that at risk. CAM DAHL JOANNE SEIFF PAUL G. THOMAS ;